Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Newcastle Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We head out of town this week with ‘The Hunter’ meeting taking place at Newcastle. Track a Good (4) as I type however showers are forecast on race day, note this track dries out very well & will take a fair bit of rain, more than we are likely to receive. The Max Lees Classic kicks the meeting off, 2yo’s with only 1 of the 11 having race experience & great to see Max’s son Kris with a couple of runners (1 & 9). Market moves will prove the best guide however on what we’ve seen at the trials I’ll take the punt (11) STELLAR AMI can overcome the wide draw & give the race a decent shake. Bolted in her only trial from the front & the stable will have her ready for a first up go. (8) GOLDEN HALL 1 of 3 Ciaron Maher trained runners, trials solid. (5) TOYTOWN has shown good speed at both trials, must include.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: Market moves the best guide.

Race 2

Small numbers here, note 4 & 8 are dual acceptors for other meetings across the weekend. (4) ALL KINDS OF FOLK is one of those da’s & I’d suggest with a very wet track likely he’ll go around at Doomben, should that not be the case promote him to top selection here also. (3) AGENT ZERO bounced back to form winning at Randwick second up after a solid fresh effort, further improved & with a good 1800m record he gets the nod. (6) C’MON FLYER in the mix off a narrow win here last start. (1) ROCK EMPIRE 1800m??

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet: Top 2 selections to win (hopefully #4 scratched).

Race 3 (Best Bet)

Big numbers in the Highway, max of 16 to run post scratchings. I’m with (16) STREET FORCE albeit on an each-way basis. She hit the line hard 3 starts back, no room two back before again strong to the line her latest, all at this Highway level. Mile trip on this big track is just made to order. (1) THINK LIKE PADDY doesn’t win too often however he’s rarely far from the action, place chance. (10) AIRHAWK is good odds for a horse who has a career record of 3 wins from 5 starts, he shoots for 4 straight today.

Numbers: 16 – 1 – 10 – 9

Suggested Bet: STREET FORCE TO WIN – Keen on this Scone trained mare to break back into the winner’s circle. Strong to the line 2 of her past 3 & without luck the unplaced effort. She’s a big finisher who will relish 1600m on the big, spacious Newcastle track.

Race 4

(10) CABBUCIO clearly has the best recent form having placed all 4 runs this prep however coming back 200m off only an 11-day break is a definite concern. (7) HELLFIRE EXPRESS hasn’t had the best of luck at his recent runs, trapped wide three back & last start the run in between was a solid second here with 62kg. He’ll settle on speed & should land a good run in the race. (6) ZENMASTER may well bob up however I wouldn’t be having my last on him.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 2 selections in exotics.

Race 5

No standouts here! I’ll lean to the first up winner (3) AMREEKIYAH however I’m well aware her second up stats aren’t quite as good however she has won once at this stage of her prep suggesting it’s far from an impossible task. Many runners will find this race a steep rise in class off recent efforts, she’s been competitive at this level in the past, she’s a winner here & I don’t see the trip being a problem. (6) SPACEBALLS is racing consistently, yes this is harder however he drops in weight & will land a good run from the favourable draw. The consistent (9) HAMOON SENSATION is unbeaten this prep & holds a strong overall record, definite winning chance.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 6 (Best Bet)

Good competitive race this one. (1) CHIX & (6) REGAL PROBLEM filled the first two placings at Randwick last start with an eyelash the only thing separating the pair on the line favouring the former. The weight turnaround is insignificant however the additional 100m isn’t as (6) REGAL PROBLEM just looks to be busting to get out over the longer trip. Confident she can turn the tables. Definite respect for (8) LOVE STORY who was off the map winning at Warwick Farm going straight to the front & never looking like being beaten. Plenty of upside lining up for only start number four.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: REGAL PROBLEM TO WIN.

Race 7

The Group 3 Spring Stakes is up next & I’m with the Queenslander (1) KICKUP ROCKY who is unbeaten at two appearances this prep. We know him as a backmarker however he showed speed in his lead-up trials & backed that up with an on paced win first up. Last start he drew wide & did look to push on early however wasn’t going to slot in so back he went having to circle the field with his big weight still able to run the leaders down. He’s nothing but versatile & can run the mile out here. Last start Warwick Farm winners (3) HOROLOGIST & (4) ZAHAV come out of the premier stables in the country & with plenty of upside.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: KICKUP ROCKY TO WIN.

Race 8

The one-million-dollar Hunter is the day’s feature race & as is usually the case it’s a very open looking line up. Speed should be solid enough to give all runners an even chance. I’m leaning to the third-up (6) SWEYNESDAY who has been doing his recent racing down south. His overall record is a good one & although out of the money both runs last campaign note he was caught wide on each occasion. If I had one concern it would be the 1300m trip, will it prove a shade too far? I cannot catch (2) GENERAL SALUTE however he must go into the mix, little below par last start however he wasn’t far away & is regularly in the finish these kinds of races. Look for (18) POINT AND SHOOT late.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 9 – 18

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 9 (Best Bet)

The stayers step out next over 2300m. Many of these can mix their form, on their day they can win however picking that right day is a task. (8) SAVVY SPY certainly doesn’t fit that category, he’s really hit his straps this prep winning his past 3 starts proving too strong over the concluding stages. Yes, this is a tougher task however he’ll give his all once again & that’s likely good enough to get away with the race. (7) BESTOWER is consistent, (5) ZULEIKA could be ready to show up.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: SAVVY SPY TO WIN.

Race 10

Absolute raffle to finish up the day. I’ve been in (5) NAVY PILOT’s corner his past few & although only placed at one of those runs he has been strong late on each occasion. The rise in distance to 1300m suits & I can see then running on from the back here which is where he’s going to end up from the wide draw. (15) EAGLE EXPRESS maps well & comes back in grade having contested Listed & Group 3 races her past couple. (10) THE BLADE another who will find this an easier assignment can improve, favourable draw helps.

Numbers: 5 – 15 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up as many as you can in exotics!




Recent Articles