Sports

Robbie Von’s F1 – United States Grand Prix Preview

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

KIMI CAN WIN THE TITLE IN AUSTIN. BUT EVERYTHING HAS TO FALL HIS WAY

A 20 year old in his second season can be crowned World Champion this weekend in Texas. Let that sit for a second while we look at last week.

SINGAPORE BELONGED TO MAX

We tipped Verstappen at $3.00 and he delivered. Again. That’s two weeks running.

He won the Sprint on Saturday and the Grand Prix on Sunday. Two poles, two wins, a clean sweep of the weekend. He led lights to flag on Sunday and finished seven seconds clear of Leclerc.

Here’s what makes it special. Marina Bay was one of the very few tracks Max had never won at. He finally ticked it off on his 250th Grand Prix start, and it was his 73rd win with Red Bull, one more than Michael Schumacher managed with Ferrari. Not a bad day at the office.

Leclerc second, Antonelli third after picking off Norris and Hamilton in the final laps. Norris fourth, Piastri fifth.

Hamilton gambled on strategy and it went badly wrong, dropping him to sixth. To his credit he owned it straight away on the radio with a simple sorry boys. Russell’s weekend was a write off. He crashed out of the Sprint on the opening lap and salvaged almost nothing. And McLaren? Norris and Piastri collided with each other on the final lap of the Sprint while running fourth and fifth.

THE TITLE SCENARIO

Antonelli: 340 points. Russell: 238. Hamilton: 229. Verstappen: 221. Leclerc: 215. Norris: 201.

Kimi leads by 102 with six races to go, and he can mathematically seal it in Austin. First thing he has to do is win. Nothing else gets him there. A victory immediately knocks Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris out of the title race entirely, leaving only his teammate and Lewis Hamilton able to stop him.

From there it comes down to where those two finish. If Antonelli wins he moves to 365 points. Russell has to come home eighth or better to stay alive. Anything from ninth back and it’s over. Hamilton has to finish fourth or better.

There’s a lovely wrinkle too. If Russell lands exactly ninth they’d be separated by precisely 125 points with 125 still available, so a dead heat is possible. Antonelli would still take the title on countback, because nine race wins beats anything Russell can reach.

WHAT IT WOULD ACTUALLY MEAN

This isn’t just another championship. 20 year old Antonelli would become the youngest World Champion in the history of Formula 1, breaking Sebastian Vettel’s 2010 record by more than three years. Three years. That record has stood for 16 seasons.

He’d also be the first Italian World Champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953. That’s 73 years. In the entire history of the sport only two Italians have ever done it, Giuseppe Farina in 1950 and Ascari in 1952 and 1953. Nobody since.

An Italian kid, driving for a German team, ending a drought older than almost everyone reading this. Whether it lands this weekend or in a few weeks, it’s going to be some moment.

CIRCUIT OF THE AMERICAS

Austin, October 23 to 25. Standard weekend, no Sprint. 5.513km, 56 laps.

COTA is a proper driver’s track. That brutal uphill blind hairpin at Turn 1, the flowing high speed esses through sector two that were modelled on Silverstone’s Maggotts and Becketts, then a tight technical final sector. It’s also famously bumpy, which punishes stiff cars and tired necks.

Ferrari are bringing their biggest upgrade package of the 2026 season here, so watch them closely in practice. And true to Austin’s live music reputation, Maroon 5 and Post Malone are on the bill as weekend entertainment. Liam Lawson will also be performing live at the VCARB Garage Sessions on the Thursday before the race.

THE TEAMS

Red Bull

Verstappen is favourite at $1.90 and $1.25 Top 3. Shortest price he has been all year, and fair enough after back to back wins. He has won at COTA before and the car is the quickest on the grid right now. Hadjar at $23.00 is a longshot, but might be worth considering for a podium bet.

Mercedes

Antonelli at $3.50 and $1.45 Top 3. Everything above applies. Win here and history is on the table. Russell at $11.00 has to stop the rot after a horror Singapore, and he’s also the man who can delay his teammate’s coronation.

Ferrari

Hamilton at $13.00 and Leclerc at $15.00. That big upgrade could change things quickly. Leclerc has been the more consistent of the two lately and sits just 14 points behind his teammate.

McLaren

Norris at $11.00, Piastri at $21.00. They need to stop crashing into each other first. Third in the Constructors, and Red Bull are just seven points behind.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Max Verstappen to Win – $1.90 (would be three in a row with the form car)

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $3.50 (makes the World Title almost inevitable)

Max Verstappen Fastest Lap – $2.25

Charles Leclerc Top 3 – $2.75 (that Ferrari upgrade is looking fast again)

A 20 year old with a shot at history, a Ferrari upgrade nobody has seen yet, and Max Verstappen hotter than he’s been all season. Austin should be a good one.

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication. TABtouch markets available now.




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