Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1 (Best Bet)

Everest Day at Randwick on Saturday promises to be an absolute cracker with the feature worth 20 million plus an outstanding support card. The big unknown is the track/weather, following a Tuesday night deluge the reading was a heavy (8) on Wednesday morning, improvement by Thursday however more showers forecast, it’s crystal ball stuff! The Big Dance Wild Card gets the meeting underway, (6) MATIAS does appear very well placed to make it 4 wins from 11 outings. Close up in the Cameron first up this is no harder & the rise in trip suits. Placed 2 of 3 soft track outings to date he’s in with a light weight also. I cannot catch (1) TAVI TIME however doubt I’m on my own, his soft track record is a good one though & he’s a place chance.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet: MATIAS TO WIN – Plenty of upside about this one who wasn’t far away in the Group 3 Cameron first-up. No worries on the wet ground he drops in both class & weight, a likely winning combination.

Race 2 (Best Bet)

Topweight (1) CALAMARI RING has accepted both here & Caulfield, at this stage I have no indication of where she may end up running. Hopefully it’s here as she looks well placed stepping up to the 1400m trip for the first time. Drawn to hopefully settle a little closer than at recent runs her record to date suggests she’s better placed on damp ground than dry which could be a big plus today. The remainder are barely out of maiden grade, (4) SAFFRON VEIL fits that category however is in the right yard & improving nicely.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: CALAMARI RING TO WIN –

Very nicely placed taking on inferior opposition. She’s been running well in Group 3’s whereas the horses ahead of her in the market are coming out of Maiden & Benchmark races.

Race 3

Very open looking race. (8) UNLEESHING is a model of consistency & right at her peak fourth run back. She comes off a solid win here 2 weeks back when accounting for (7) POLYMNIA by a half-length. At the weights the latter is 3kg better off however she’s tried my patience in the past & her winning strike rate sums her up (1 from 21), I’ll stick with (8) UNLEESHING. (5) THE MONA LISA is capable of bouncing back, chances don’t end there though!

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 4

I’m a big wrap for Aethelwulf & whilst he’s not going around in this race the horse who beat him last start (1) JUJA KIBO is & although up in the weights still gets the nod from me. His record on soft & heavy tracks is a good one & the rise to 2600m is no problem whatsoever. Gut feel is he’s just better than these & by a decent margin. (3) KLONDIKE could be an improver, (12) BELLA MONTAGNA disappointed last start however can fill a placing once again as can the in-form (4) SO YOU ARE.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet:  JUJA KIBO TO WIN.

Race 5

The 2-million-dollar Kosciuszko brings together a very competitive bunch of provincial/country trained gallopers. No surprise to see a wide-open market. I’ll lean to (12) CHAINS OF LOVE who is only lightly raced with an impressive strike rate. She’s a first-up winner, won & placed on soft ground yet to see anything worse & has had 4 recent trials to get her ready, yes 4, doubt she’ll lack anything in fitness! (2) CHIDIAC gets J. Mac & is unbeaten fresh (3 from 3), trial winner who looms as a massive danger. (9) LORD REMLAP didn’t have things go to plan last start, that was his first career defeat, he can bounce back strongly.

Numbers: 12 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics.

Race 6

The Group 2 Sydney Stakes is a ripper, capacity line up to do battle over the 1200m. Where to look! I’ll side with (7) BEADMAN who gets Zac Purton to steer, placed first up before out of the money second up in the Memsie at Caulfield, late sectionals at both runs have been very good, just too far back at the latest due to a wide draw. Suggest Zac will be looking to get across & gain cover without drifting too far back, sitting wide on this track may not be such a bad thing. Queenslander (6) GRAFTERBURNERS has put in two cracking runs this prep both here at this level, he’s won on soft (7) & placed on heavy (8) suggesting he’s far from a wet track duffer. (1) OVERPASS will give them plenty to catch whilst (15) MARHOONA looks well placed.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 1 – 15

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics.

Race 7

The 20-million-dollar Everest over the 1200m. From the moment (1) KA YING RISING passed the post this day last year all the talk has been about his return & here we are. He’s dominated the markets ever since & rightly so as he’s had 7 subsequent starts & never looked like being beaten at any of them, acclaimed the world’s best sprinter & that he certainly is. He’s going to strike a wet track this time around, 21 of his 24 wins have been on dry ground, 1 on soft (from only one attempt) which was back in 2024. Connections insist he’s a better horse on top of the ground & they would know, I’ll tip him however don’t be surprised to see a drift in his price should we receive more rain. (9) TEMPTED chased him home last year, 5kg worse at the weights this time around however she’s absolutely flying this prep & clearly a better mare. Her Premiere win was outstanding & a wet track is no concern to her whatsoever, inside draw not ideal on paper however they don’t run 20-million-dollar races on paper! (8) JOLIESTAR is ready, loved her recent trial & she’ll give her usual honest best.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 8

The million-dollar Silver Eagle is up next over the 1300m. Can’t tip against (3) SKYHOOK who looks very well placed to make it 3 from 3 this prep. Very impressive racing clear first up before improving both the margin & his authority in the Shannon at Rosehill when leading throughout. He’s a versatile type who will have no trouble on wet ground & jockey Kerrin McEvoy will have options from the good draw. (1) BEIWACHT failed in the Group 1 Manikato, he led as he does however that was 1200m, he’s a 1400m horse & here we are at 1300m… he’s still a chance & will definitely give them something to run down. Include (9) PLATINUM PANTHEON who was a huge run fresh just missing out, the wetter the better for him.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: SKYHOOK TO WIN.

Race 9

Only small numbers in this 5-million-dollar race & the champion mare (5) AUTUMN GLOW will go around at a very short quote once again as she looks to make it 14 wins from 15 starts. J. Mac will park her wherever he wants & as long as she’s within striking distance of Pride Of Jenni I’m sure will be able to wear the front running mare down. She’s the key to this race (6) PRIDE OF JENNI, just what will the tactics be? You’d have to think get out with a big lead & try to get the champ off the bit, that won’t be easy, yet to be seen in fact! (1) CEOWULF the danger should there be one, terrific in the Epsom when completely luckless, he’ll be winning soon.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 2 selections in exotics.

Race 10

Very tough looking race to wind up the big day. I’m going with one at double-figure odds being (12) FARNICLE who lumped 61kg when first up yet only 3L from the winner. All the fitter for it he now takes on stronger company however has measured up in the past having placed as a 2yo at Group 2 level (heavy 10) & as a 3yo in the Listed Tapp-Craig last year. (3) CROSS TASMAN has come back well beating all bar the winner both starts this prep, wide gate is the unknown, who knows may end up a blessing? (18) ERTIJAAJ is only lightly raced & showing plenty of upside.

Numbers: 12 – 3 – 18 – 6

Suggested Bet: FARNICLE EACH-WAY (small bet).




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