David Shortte’s Mega AFL Grand Final Preview

Posted on September 24, 2026September 24, 2026 | Posted by David Shortte

SATURDAY

Fremantle v Brisbane, MCG, 12.30pm

After another wonderful season of AFL action and two of the most exciting Preliminary Finals on record we are left with Fremantle taking on Brisbane in the 2026 AFL Grand Final.

Can Fremantle create history by winning their first ever AFL Premiership or will it be Brisbane who continue their domination and win their third straight flag.

It is one of the most popular punting days on the calendar and much the same as doing your form for a horse race I like to do my form for an AFL Grand Final armed with as much valuable data as possible.

I have done all of the homework looking at who have been the key goal scorers and first goal scorers for both teams, a historical look at the last 10 Grand Finals – who has polled the Norm Smith Medal Votes and why, and the most recent match-up between these two sides.

I round it out with my Verdict and my personal AFL GF Bets.

It shapes as an epic Grand Final – good luck with your punts!

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GOAL SCORING

2026 TOP GOALSCORERS (Grand Finalists)

Logan Morris 69 Goals in 25 Games (Average 2.76 Goals Per Game)

Jye Amiss 62 Goals in 25 Games (Average 2.48 Goals Per Game)

Charlie Cameron 58 Goals in 26 Games (Average 2.23 Goals Per Game)

Josh Treacy 56 Goals in 26 Games (Average 2.15 Goals Per Game)

Kai Lohmann 53 Goals in 26 Games (Average 2.03 Goals Per Game)

Patrick Voss 46 Goals in 25 Games (Average 1.84 Goals Per Game)

Zac Bailey 34 Goals in 25 Games (Average 1.36 Goals Per Game)

Isaiah Dudley 32 Goals in 26 Games (Average 1.23 Goals Per Game)

Luke Jackson 29 Goals in 26 Games (Average 1.15 Goals Per Game)

Cam Rayner 27 Goals in 26 Games (Average 1.03 Goals Per Game)

Michael Frederick 26 Goals in 21 Games (Average 1.23 Goals Per Game)

Shai Bolton 25 Goals in 25 Games (Average 1 Goal Per Game)

Conor McKenna 24 Goals in 20 Games (Average 1.2 Goals Per Game)

Oscar Allen 23 Goals in 14 Games (Average 1.64 Goals Per Game)

Eric Hipwood 20 Goals in 13 Games (Average 1.53 Goals Per Game)

2026 TOP FIRST GOALSCORER OF THE MATCH (Grand Finalists)

Charlie Cameron – 4

Logan Morris – 3

Shai Bolton – 3

Jye Amiss – 2

Luke Jackson – 2

Michael Frederick – 2

Kai Lohmann – 2

Conor McKenna – 2

Eric Hipwood – 2

2026 TOP FIRST GOALSCORERS FOR THEIR TEAM

Charlie Cameron – 6

Logan Morris – 5

Jye Amiss – 4

Luke Jackson – 4

Shai Bolton – 3

Isaiah Dudley – 3

Patrick Voss – 3

Eric Hipwood – 3

Michael Frederick – 2

Sam Switkowski – 2

Conor McKenna – 2

Kai Lohmann – 2

Will Ashcroft – 2

FREMANTLE

2026

First Goal Scorer Match (15)

Shai Bolton – 3

Jye Amiss – 2

Luke Jackson – 2

Michael Frederick – 2

Isaiah Dudley – 1

Patrick Voss – 1

Andrew Brayshaw – 1

Josh Treacy – 1

Oscar McDonald – 1

Neil Erasmus – 1

First Goal Scorer Fremantle (26)

Jye Amiss – 4

Luke Jackson – 4

Shai Bolton – 3

Isaiah Dudley – 3

Patrick Voss – 3

Michael Frederick – 2

Sam Switkowski – 2

Andrew Brayshaw – 1

Josh Treacy – 1

Oscar McDonald – 1

Neil Erasmus – 1

Jordan Clark – 1

BRISBANE

2026

First Goal Scorer Match (18)

Charlie Cameron – 4

Logan Morris – 3

Kai Lohmann – 2

Conor McKenna – 2

Eric Hipwood – 2

Will Ashcroft – 1

Oscar Allen – 1

Zac Bailey – 1

Jarrad Berry – 1

Lachie Neale – 1

First Goal Scorer Brisbane (26)

Charlie Cameron – 6

Logan Morris – 5

Eric Hipwood – 3

Kai Lohmann – 2

Conor McKenna – 2

Will Ashcroft – 2

Oscar Allen – 1

Zac Bailey – 1

Jarrad Berry – 1

Lachie Neale – 1

Cody Curtin – 1

Hugh McLuggage – 1

KEY TAKE AWAYS

• Charlie Cameron has been striking early in his matches kicking the First Goal of the Match on 4 occasions and the first for Brisbane on 6. On raw numbers for 2026 he is the most prolific in this space. Logan Morris is next best for the Lions with 3 and 5 while for Freo Shai Bolton 3 and 3, Jye Amiss 2 and 4 and Luke Jackson 2 and 4 are the most dangerous early.
• Five of the Top 10 Goal Scorers in the League are involved in the Grand Final with Logan Morris (2^nd), Jye Amiss (5^th), Charlie Cameron (7^th), Josh Treacy (8^th) and Kai Lohmann (9^th) all heading in to the match off productive seasons. They are all averaging more than 2 goals per match over the course of the season.
• Isaiah Dudley has been one of the most reliable value goal scorers this season managing 1 or more goals in 21 of his 26 matches. He has kicked a goal or more in 8 of his last 9 games and has kicked the first goal for Freo in 3 separate games this season.
• Charlie Cameron has been running hot on the run home kicking 2 or more goals in 9 of his last 10 matches.
• Kai Lohmann can be an all duck or no dinner operator. He has gone without a goal in 3 of his last 5 matches but around it he has kicked 3 or more goals in 6 of his last 11 matches.

2026 ENCOUNTERS

The two sides have met just once this season in Round 12 at the GABBA where Fremantle were comfortable 25 point winners.

Round 12

GABBA

Brisbane 10.18 (78)

Lost to

Fremantle 15.13 (103)

Fremantle by 25 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Isaiah Dudley

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Will Ashcroft

Leading Disposal Winners

Bailey 30

Wilmot 26

Clark 24

Brayshaw 24

Neale 23

Ryan 22

O’Driscoll 22

1.Ashcroft 22

Reid 21

Bolton 21

McVee 20

Johnson 20

Berry 20

Worner 18

Wagner 17

Multiple Goal Scorers

Voss 4

Amiss 4

Treacy 3

Cameron 2

W Ashcroft 2

GRAND FINAL & NORM SMITH HISTORY OVER THE LAST DECADE

Here is a Recap of the last 10 AFL Grand Finals and what we are looking for when it comes to the numbers that have won the Norm Smith Medal and the Premiership and my Verdict and personal AFL Grand Final Plays.

KEY TAKE AWAYS

• Over the last 10 Grand Finals the average Total Score is 169.1 points per game
• Over the last 10 Grand Finals there is an average of 5.2 multiple goal scorers per game
• Quite logically the Norm Smith Medallists have the recurring themes of either near game high disposals, most goals or near most goals, or a combination of strong disposals and goals scored.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists only 1 has won the award without kicking a goal (Jason Johannisen in 2016).
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 6 of the 10 winners have kicked 2 goals or more.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 3 of the 10 winners have kicked 4 goals.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 7 of the 10 have been in the top 2 disposal winners on the ground.

2025 Grand Final

Brisbane 18.14 (122)

defeated

Geelong 11.9 (75)

Brisbane by 47 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Ollie Dempsey

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Kai Lohmann

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Will Ashcroft – 13 votes (32 Disposals, 1 Goal)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

W Ashcroft 13 votes (30 Disposals 1 Goal)

H Andrews 6 votes (18 Disposals)

Z Bailey 5 votes (23 Disposals 3 Goals)

J Fletcher 3 votes (29 Disposals)

D Zorko 2 votes (28 Disposals)

H McLuggage 1 vote (26 Disposals 4 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

M Holmes 33

W Ashcroft 32

B Smith 29

J Fletcher 29

D Zorko 28

H McCluggage 26

L Humphries 23

Z Bailey 23

T Atkins 20

O Dempsey 19

H Andrews 18

D Wilmot 17

L Neale 17

K Lohmann 17

L Ashcroft 17

C Ah Chee 17

Multiple Goal Scorers

H McCluggage 4

O Dempsey 4

C Cameron 4

Z Bailey 3

K Lohmann 2

 

2024 Grand Final

Brisbane 18.12 (120)

defeated

Sydney 9.6 (60)

Brisbane by 60 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Will Hayward

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Kai Lohmann

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Will Ashcroft – 14 votes (30 Disposals 1 Goal)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

W Ashcroft 14 votes (30 Disposals 1 Goal)

L Neale 8 votes (35 Disposals)

C Ah Chee 7 votes (14 Disposals 4 Goals)

K Lohmann 1 vote (15 Disposals 4 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

L Neale 35

W Ashcroft 30

D Zorko 26

E Gulden 24

O Florent 24

B Grundy 22

C Warner 21

H McLuggage 21

R Fox 21

J Dunkley 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

K Lohmann 4

C Ah Chee 4

L Parker 3

L Morris 2

J Daniher 2

W Ashcroft 1

2023 Grand Final

Collingwood 12.18 (90)

defeated

Brisbane 13.8 (86)

Collingwood by 4 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Nick Daicos

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Zac Bailey

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Bobby Hill – 15 votes (18 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

B Hill – 15 votes (18 Disposals 4 Goals)

K Coleman 5 votes (26 Disposals)

N Daicos 4 votes (29 Disposals 1 Goal)

T Mitchell 3 votes (24 Disposals)

J Crisp 2 votes (25 Disposals 2 Goals)

S Pendlebury 1 vote (24 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

N Daicos 29

K Coleman 26

J Crisp 25

S Pendlebury 24

T Mitchell 24

J Howe 24

L Neale 21

H McLuggage 21

J Dunkley 21

S Sidebottom 20

B Hill 18

Multiple Goal Scorers

B Hill 4

J Daniher 3

C Cameron 3

H McLuggage 2

L McCarthy 2

J De Goey 2

J Crisp 2

Z Bailey 2

2022 Grand Final

Geelong 20.13 (133)

defeated

Sydney 8.4 (52)

Geelong by 81 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Tom Hawkins

1^st Sydney Goal Scorer : Will Hayward

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Isaac Smith – 14 votes (32 Disposals 3 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

I Smith – 14 votes (32 Disposals 3 Goals)

P Dangerfield 10 votes (27 Disposals)

T Stengle 4 votes (15 Disposals 4 Goals)

M Blicavs 1 vote (23 Disposals 1 Goal)

S De Koning 1 vote (16 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

I Smith 32

C Warner 29

M Duncan 27

P Dangerfield 27

J Selwood 26

R Fox 26

L Parker 23

M Blicavs 23

Z Tuohy 21

T Papley 20

Multiple Goal Scorers

T Stengle 4

I Smith 3

T Hawkins 3

C Warner 2

B Close 2

J Cameron 2

2021 Grand Final

Melbourne 21.14 (140)

defeated

Western Bulldogs 10.6 (66)

Melbourne by 74 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Christian Petracca

1^st WB Goal Scorer : Roarke Smith

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Christian Petracca – 15 votes (39 Disposals 2 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Christian Petracca – 15 votes (39 Disposals 2 Goals)

B Fritsch 10 votes (13 Disposals 6 Goals)

C Oliver 3 votes (33 Disposals 1 Goal)

M Blicavs 1 vote (23 Disposals 1 Goal)

C Salem 1 vote (27 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

C Petracca 29

C Daniel 37

C Oliver 33

A Treloar 27

C Salem 27

B Smith 26

J Macrae 26

J Viney 25

J Dunkley 25

A Brayshaw 25

M Bontempelli 25

Multiple Goal Scorers

B Fritsch 6

A Treloar 3

B Brown 3

M Bontempelli 3

C Petracca 2

T McDonald 2

2020 Grand Final

Richmond 12.9 (81)

defeated

Geelong 7.8 (50)

Richmond by 31 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Dion Prestia

1^st Geel Goal Scorer : Cam Guthrie

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 15 votes (21 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 15 votes (21 Disposals 4 Goals)

J Short 6 votes (25 Disposals)

S Edwards 4 votes (27 Disposals)

M Duncan 3 votes (25 Disposals 1 Goal)

N Broad 2 votes (8 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

S Edwards 27

J Short 25

M Duncan 25

J Selwood 21

D Martin 21

T Stewart 20

T Cotchin 19

J Graham 17

S Bolton 16

Multiple Goal Scorers

D Martin 4

J Riewoldt 2

D Prestia 2

S Menegola 2

2019 Grand Final

Richmond 17.12 (114)

defeated

GWS 3.7 (25)

Richmond by 89 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Jeremy Cameron

1^st Rich Goal Scorer : Dustin Martin

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 15 votes (22 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 15 votes (22 Disposals 4 Goals)

B Houli 6 votes (26 Disposals)

M Pickett 4 votes (22 Disposals 1 Goal)

J Riewoldt 3 votes (13 Disposals 5 Goals)

D Prestia 2 votes (22 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

T Taranto 30

H Shaw 29

B Houli 26

N Haynes 24

T Greene 23

N Vlaustin 22

D Prestia 22

M Pickett 22

D Martin 22

Z Williams 21

H Perryman 21

S Edwards 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Riewoldt 5

D Martin 4

T Lynch 2

2018 Grand Final

West Coast 11.13 (79)

defeated

Collingwood 11.8 (74)

West Coast by 5 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Travis Varcoe

1^st WC Goal Scorer : Willie Rioli

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Luke Shuey – 11 votes (34 Disposals 1 Goal)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Luke Shuey – 11 votes (34 Disposals 1 Goal)

T Adams 7 votes (31 Disposals 1 Goal)

D Sheed 4 votes (32 Disposals 1 Goal)

J McGovern 1 vote (14 Disposals)

T Langdon 1 vote (23 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

L Shuey 34

D Sheed 32

T Adams 31

A Treloar 26

J Crisp 25

T Langdon 23

B Sier 21

J Redden 21

T Phillips 21

S Hurn 21

S Pendlebury 20

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Kennedy 3

J De Goey 3

J Stephenson 2

M Cox 2

2017 Grand Final

Richmond 16.12 (108)

defeated

Adelaide 8.12 (60)

Richmond by 48 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Rory Sloane

1^st Rich Goal Scorer : Josh Caddy

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 13 votes (29 Disposals 2 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 13 votes (29 Disposals 2 Goals)

B Houli 10 votes (25 Disposals 1 Goal)

A Rance 2 votes (11 Disposals)

S Edwards 2 votes (25 Disposals)

D Prestia 2 votes (27 Disposals 1 Goal)

J Graham 1 vote (16 Disposals 3 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

M Crouch 37

D Martin 29

B Crouch 29

D Prestia 27

R Laird 27

B Houli 25

S Edwards 25

K Lambert 22

R Sloane 21

T Cotchin 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Graham 3

T Walker 2

J Townsend 2

R Sloane 2

J Riewoldt 2

D Martin 2

2016 Grand Final

Western Bulldogs 13.11 (89)

defeated

Sydney 10.7 (67)

Western Bulldogs by 22 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Luke Parker

1^st WB Goal Scorer : Zaine Cordy

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Jason Johannisen – 10 votes (33 Disposals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

J Johannisen – 10 votes (33 Disposals)

J Kennedy 8 votes (34 Disposals 3 Goals)

T Boyd 7 votes (14 Disposals 3 Goals)

L Picken 5 votes (25 Disposals 3 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

J Kennedy 34

J Macrae 33

J Johannisen 33

M Boyd 27

T Mitchell 26

L Picken 25

D Rampe 24

L Dalhaus 23

T Liberatore 22

K Jack 22

I Heeney 22

D Hanneberry 22

M Bontempelli 22

Multiple Goal Scorers

L Picken 3

J Kennedy 3

T Dickson 3

T Boyd 3

T Mitchell 2

VERDICT

Both Fremantle and Brisbane have had to claw their way to this Grand Final after losing their Qualifying finals in week one. Fremantle lost to Hawthorn at home but were able to steady and defeat Geelong at Optus before coming from nearly five goals down to beat Sydney at the SCG. Brisbane were smoked by the Swans at the SCG before bouncing back with wins at home against Adelaide and then last week produced a mighty effort to prevail over Hawthorn at the MCG.

The great unknown is definitely a thing heading in to this Grand Final. This will be Brisbane’s fourth straight Grand Final appearance and logic tells us that they are not going to be overawed by the occasion. The majority of their playing group have been to Grand Finals and tasted success. Fremantle on the other hand are a complete unknown. Only Shai Bolton, Luke Jackson and Mason Cox have been to the big game at the MCG on the last Saturday in September. There is a chance that Fremantle thrive in this environment but there is also a prospect that the gravity of the contest takes it’s toll.

The other potential angle here is how hungry are the two sides? For the vast majority of the season Fremantle have set the standards in relation to the quality of football and ladder position but Brisbane have been there lurking in the shadows. They have found a way to win the games when they have needed to and when they have been switched on they have looked elite. When the game is on the line will the hunger of the side chasing their first ever flag be enough to outwork the side that have been there and done it already?

While Fremantle’s big three of Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss have been outstanding through the regular season (153 goals at a combined average of 6.65 goals per game), their output as a trio through the finals (11 goals at a combined average of 3.66 goals per game) has been well down. Brisbane have been opened up by big forwards a few times this season in their losses and there is a prospect Fremantle could expose that again but the big three will need to recapture their best for that to happen.

Brisbane have been leaky at times in defence but their firepower forward of the ball is imposing. Logan Morris has kicked the second most goals of any forward in the competition this year (69 goals at an average of 2.76 goals per game) and their small forwards Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann, Zac Bailey, Conor McKenna and Cam Rayner are all damaging when given supply.

Both sides have stacked midfields. Fremantle will back the likes of Jackson, Brayshaw, Serong, Bolton and Young to deliver while Brisbane will again put their trust in Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Levi Ashcroft and Zac Bailey.

The value of Luke Jackson cannot be underestimated in this fixture. He thrived as a rookie in the understudy role to Max Gawn in the Premiership win for Melbourne in 2021. This time he returns to Grand Final day as one of the premier big men in the competition and he is now a proven commodity.

I have come up with a same game multi on the match where I have done all of the numbers to try and find a play where the percentages are in our favour. That Same Game Multi has Luke

Jackson to get 15 or more disposals (He has done this in 9 of his last 10 games and the one he didn’t he had 14 possessions), Jordan Clark to get 20 or more disposals (He has done this in 8 of his last 10 matches and the two he didn’t he had 18 and 19), Will Ashcroft to get 25 or more disposals (He has done this in 9 of his last 10 games) and Charlie Cameron to kick 2 or more goals (He has done this in 9 of his last 10 matches). The Same Game Multi is paying $4.

I think we are in for an absolute classic for this year’s Grand Final. An up and coming contender against the heavyweight champion who has delivered time and time again.

I am going to lean towards what I know and history which says we know Brisbane deliver on the biggest day of the footy year. It is not to say that Fremantle can’t win it, as I have outlined above there is plenty to like about them but they are still the unknown. I’ll go with Brisbane by 5 points in a thriller.

Prediction : Brisbane by 5 points

Norm Smith Medal : Will Ashcroft $5 (Other key hopes : Luke Jackson $9, Hayden Young $15 and Kai Lohmann $26).

First Goal Scorer : Charlie Cameron $10.50

Same Game Multi : Luke Jackson to get 15 or more disposals, Jordan Clark to get 20 or more disposals, Will Ashcroft to get 25 or more disposals and Charlie Cameron to kick 2 or more goals @$4.00*.