Races

Michael Heaton’s Wednesday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1 

SWINGMAN has returned in great form this campaign and should relish the conditions having won both of his starts on rain-affected tracks (a soft-5 and heavy-8). He chased hard in a fast-run race last start and the scratching of Kings Court means he should find the front now and be hard to run down. SNITZLATTE resumes first up, no trial and ran a close second to star stablemate Playin’it Sweet with the same lead up last preparation. She was a permanent fixture in stewards reports with luckless runs in feature races after that where she produced some massive efforts in defeat. SLIP THE JAB is 2 from 2 in midweek grade this preparation and now faces the toughest test of his career to date but he drops 2.5kg in a small field and the figures he’s been producing should see him measure up. HURRICANE HARLEY is another resuming without a trial and he’s less exposed than his rivals but has some X-factor and an element of progressiveness.

Numbers: 2-1-5-6

Suggested Bet – SWINGMAN WIN

RACE 2

Competitive race for the 2YOs. GOD’S ENCHANTMENT makes his debut off the back of 2 smart recent trials and loved the way he moved in his most recent outing. He was under a strangle hold by Brad Parnham over the late stages but still powered through the line and you’d like to think he would handle the sting out of the ground being by Playing God and out of a McFlirt mare. GOD’S HAMMER was the $450,000 sale topper at last year’s Perth Magic Millions Yearling Sale and looked impressive in his recent trial win once he knuckled down and put his mind on the job. He looks raw but should eat up every bit of 1200m and beyond. Fellow debutant ROK ‘N’ ROM has only had one public appearance but couldn’t have done much more. She won her trial nicely and should be able to roll forward to ride the speed with only 53kg after Nottle’s claim. UNANSWERED wasn’t let off the bridle when bolting in behind them in his only trial to date.

Numbers: 4-5-9-6

Suggested Bet – GOD’S ENCHANTMENT WIN

RACE 3

SENTIMENTAL LEGEND won with a leg in the air in moderate company 2 starts back and was brave in defeat in the J.C. Roberts Stakes last time out. He ended up posted 3-deep in a high-pressure race and gave Aberdeen Flyer the perfect cart up on his back but now gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour as well as a much softer draw. He’s always screamed a Derby type and can turn the tables over 2200m. ABERDEEN FLYER was the state’s best maiden prior to breaking through in the J.C. Roberts. He was sectionally brilliant in the Lex Piper at his previous outing and is hard to knock. WYNN LAS VEGAS led them a merry dance in his impressive recent maiden win on an on-speed dominated day and is now up 600m but should be able to lead and dictate. DOMINATUS was a bit unlucky last start but was plain as a beaten favourite in the Lex Piper and looks a query at the trip now.

Numbers: 3-1-4-2

Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL LEGEND WIN

RACE 4

LUCKY I AM has finished in the money at 15 of her 20 career starts to date and 1100m could well be her sweet spot. She’s a soft-6 and soft-7 winner and she looks the toughest of the on-speed types here in what looks set to be a solidly-run affair. GOLD MAKER resumes without a trial and is a very hard horse to catch (1 from 22) but he ran some big races last campaign and typically goes well fresh. He’s never missed the money from 4 starts first up, has placed at 6 of his 7 starts on soft tracks and sneaks into this with 55kg after the claim. GIRLS DAY OUT is a consistent type but her best performances have been when she’s been able to get a soft lead and she looks likely to cop a fair amount of pressure here which could bring her undone. DAYTONA PETE looks destined to do it tough from the outside gate but first up last preparation he was only 1.3L off Black Ora in a 3YO 62+.

Numbers: 1-3-5-2

Suggested Bet – LUCKY I AM WIN

RACE 5

FANCY RED is a ripper. She won a Belmont Oaks on a heavy-9 track so any sting out of the ground will likely only help her, she drops out of the Bunbury Cup last start and she held Asif through the line in her win at this track, grade and distance 2 starts back. She actually meets him 0.5kg better at the weights after the claim for winning and her performance was more than 3L superior to The Crimson Pirate’s Lex Piper Stakes victory over the same distance on the same day despite carrying 4kg more. THE CRIMSON PIRATE was a Listed winner at this track/distance only 2 starts ago and was brave in the J.C. Roberts last start when chasing a hot speed throughout. He’s a progressive 3YO who looks suited dropping back to a mile with only 55kg. ANTIQUE STAR has been underwhelming as a beaten favourite at her first 2 runs back but each her wins to date have been on wet tracks and she’ll appreciate the step to 1600m. ASIF is going very well for the new yard and is a 2-time heavy track winner so he would’ve much preferred last Saturday’s meeting to have gone ahead.

Numbers: 1-8-5-4

Suggested Bet – FANCY RED WIN

RACE 6

MASMELO had a perfect run in the Natasha Stakes and won accordingly but this could end up a carbon copy speed map and race shape for her. She put the writing on the wall for the Listed win with a slashing Ascot 1000 Guineas effort beforehand, should get an ideal run in transit here and she looks the filly best suited by the step to 2400m. WONDERFULLY MADE is the most talented filly in the race but is she the best filly at 2400m? She was ridden for luck from an awkward gate in the Natasha and hit the line super despite going under as the $1.50 favourite but she has been dealt the exact same barrier to contend with now. It may well end up a case of swap the barriers and swap the result? ADMIRE ASTRA gave a lot of cheek when dictating terms in the Natasha and she looks the logical leader again. HEAVENLY RAPTURE made big late ground in the same race and can track Masmelo’s every move in running.

Numbers: 2-1-3-5

Suggested Bet – MASMELO WIN

Same Race Multi – Masmelo (Top 2) + Admire Astra (Top 3)

Masmelo is capable of doing the Natasha Stakes-WA Oaks double. She looks the best suited filly stepping to 2400m, she looks set to get a very similar run in transit to her last-start Listed triumph and she’s on the second line of betting. Admire Astra gave a lot of cheek in the Natasha and she looks the logical leader where she can dictate terms again and hang on for another top-three finish.

RACE 7

Open race. THE JESTER’S SON is flying and has tactical versatility so he doesn’t necessarily need to find the front in a race like this where there is plenty of natural speed engaged. He was beaten a nose in the Esperance Cup 2 starts back, led and won well at this track/distance last time out and looks capable of measuring up in a 66+ with the way he’s going. INVINCIBLE THIEF was unlucky not to win when resuming from a freshen and getting held up in the straight but then sprouting wings late to run an eye-catching second. She’s won 3 of her past 5 starts, including a Graduation at this track/distance, and looks a mare with upside. NOBLE CONNECTION steps from Westspeed Platinum grade to a 66+ which isn’t easy to do but he’s building up a handy record and is a previous heavy-8 and soft-7 winner. NOAHQUINTILLY was good first up, no trial in a fast-run 1600m and was competitive in and around this grade last campaign. She has a tough map to overcome with speed draw both inside and outside of her but the extra 200m suits and she’s tough as nails.

Numbers: 2-9-1-7

Suggested Bet – THE JESTER’S SON EACH-WAY

RACE 8

TOO DARN STORMY has been freshened since his first up run where he was a beaten favourite but he was sectionally a very good run on an on-speed dominated day and at a distance that looks like will be at the bottom end of his range. He made good late ground in his recent trial, has always promised to be better than Graduation grade and should be able to blend into the moving line before launching late. URQUHARTS BLUFF is going great guns and Paul Jordan’s stable is humming. He stuck on well in a high-rating race won by subsequent winner Malletier 2 starts back then produced a good figure when sitting 3-deep and still breaking 01:10:00 to win in midweek grade last time out. FIRST BEACH joins Team Gangemi and trialled up nicely when leading throughout recently. He can work his way to the top and he was less than 2.5L off Smooth Chino and Jaz Session at this track, grade and distance at his last start in November. MAIN ACT hit the line well last start and is better suited stepping to 1200m.

Numbers: 9-3-5-6

Suggested Bet – TOO DARN STORMY WIN

RACE 9

WEMBANYAMA was huge first up over an unsuitable 1000m when running home in the fastest closing sectionals of the day. The step to 1400m here is much more in his wheelhouse and he has performed well on rain-affected tracks previously so the sting out of the ground won’t worry him. SIMPLY THINKIN’ similarly motored to the line in an eye-catching finish at her last start when less than 2L off subsequent winner King Hit. She drops 2kg staying in the same grade after Nottle’s claim, has won 3 of her 5 starts on soft tracks and should be able to settle a touch closer from the better gate. DUG ANOTHER HOLE drops from a 72+ to a 66+ and is a model of consistency. He’s finished in the money at 8 of his 10 starts at Ascot and should ride the speed. MADAME MAGIC was good first up in a high-rating race and has raced in higher grade at her past 5 starts. She has to lump 60kg now but is suited by the step to 1400m and wasn’t far off some top mares in feature race company last prep.

Numbers: 7-4-6-1

Suggested Bet – WEMBANYAMA EACH-WAY

RACE 10

IMMORTAL BLISS is 39 days between runs after being scratched from his last start but he looks a sprinter with plenty of upside and the forecasted conditions late in the day should suit his racing style. He won well at his first start for the new stable (same track, distance and grade as this) at his last outing and hasn’t started beyond $2.70 at any of his 8 runs in WA. KING ADVISO has been very brave in defeat at his first 2 runs back and is bursting to win a race. He comes out of the high-rating Horcrux race where he set the tempo and they broke the clock at 01:08:84 and his past 3 wins have been on heavy-8, soft-7 and heavy-8 tracks so he gets his chance to go one better. SEPTEMBER BORN resumes first up, no trial and is an entire who has clearly had to work through some issues in his lightly-raced career to date. The former Fairetha Stakes winner has plenty of ability and typically goes well fresh. HORCRUX has returned at the peak of his powers this preparation but this looks an awkward setup having drawn outside of King Adviso, Sky Duke and Castle Road as well as losing Pike.

Numbers: 2-6-5-8

Suggested Bet – IMMORTAL BLISS EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,2,7,9,11,12

3,5,9

1,2,4,6,7

2,5,6,8

360 combinations

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