Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Raing in Brisbane on Saturday takes place at Eagle Farm where we have just the 8 races which is a rarity in this day & age. We’re on weather watch with showers possible right through to race day however not definite. The meeting gets underway with a 1000m 2yo affair where I don’t see too many winning chances. (1) ON THE CLOCK & (8) NIGHT MARKET the two, my head tells me the former however I’m going with (8) NIGHT MARKET who ran quicker time than Pembrey at the trials before failing on debut, happy to forgive & note connections have scratched out of an easier race at Ipswich on Friday preferring to go around here. (1) ON THE CLOCK bolted in at Toowoomba when down in class, close up behind a couple of nice types only other runs suggests he’s well placed from the pole draw.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: NIGHT MARKET & ON THE CLOCK TO WIN.

RACE 2

Very keen on the chances of (2) MAKE A CALL who will appreciate the step up in distance this afternoon. A victim of a slow tempo last start he would have had to match Usain Bolt for speed to be any chance of running down the leaders from last, an impossible task. He gets an additional 220 metres today & whilst again there looks to be low speed I’d suspect Angela Jones will be well aware of that & use that inside gate to have him in a position to strike early in the straight. (3) REZONE keeps running good races whilst (5) JENNI MOREESE was a solid last start winner aided by a terrific initiative using ride.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: MAKE A CALL TO WIN.

RACE 3

(5) LAST COMMAND was aided by an inside gate & soft tempo when winning here last start over this exact (1600m) trip. Again he draws in, again he gets the claim & although likely not as close in transit he can get the prize once again as he has a very strong finish which he seems to produce from wherever he is in the run. (1) WEIGALL TIGER rolls along here up on speed, completely forgive his latest when having no luck whatsoever in the straight. (4) MR BUSTER can run a race fresh, market?

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: LAST COMMAND TO WIN.

RACE 4

(6) ABOUT TO EXPLODE should be peaking third run back from a break today. Not far away fresh when unwanted in the market he was then narrowly beaten by his stablemate Bundella here giving plenty down the running. This is his track & trip & also his time to shine. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see (5) BRERETON run a race, interestingly he’s yet to win at 1200m however has placed 4 of 10 & draws to gain a very economical run, although rising plenty in weight he does drop in grade. (1) SLIPPIN’ JIMMY & (7) MOONHAVEN next best, former back in trip should suit, the latter in great form just a slight risk for mine at 1200m?

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: ABOUT TO EXPLODE TO WIN.

RACE 5

No early support around for the resuming (6) SMEXY however I’m not discounting her until we get closer to race time, the stable do like a bet & that’s always a reliable barometer as to how their horses perform. She clearly holds the best form lines through the likes of Ninja & Fabulantes last prep, the concerns are her fitness levels & 1200m however if on song, look out! (3) TEN DEEP maps very well from the good draw, freshened up & back in distance suits. (12) FIRST EMPIRE gets in well weight wise & is very consistent, any rain will aid his chances.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 12 – 8

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for SMEXY.

RACE 6

Keen on the chances of the resuming (5) VIVIKA who has only had the 4 starts to date winning twice. She ran into the very smart Sunrays on debut & another smart one in Alfa Sophie at her other defeat, those form lines would stack up very strongly here. She’s trialled nicely & is in a good yard, any track deterioration shouldn’t concern. (1) DR FARTHING was a surprise winner of the Jewel Prelude, electing not to go to the final last week he goes around here with plenty of upside however also plenty more weight. (2) THE POOL BOY is in a similar boat rising 5kg after the claim.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for VIVIKA.

RACE 7

On face value I was disappointed with the performance of (5) FACUNDO last start however going over the race it did develop into sprint home & nothing really made any ground suggesting his effort to hold his spot improving a little late was sound. Up to 1400m today he’ll park a lot closer in the run which could be a good thing as there is no obvious leader on my map. (8) CHO OYU will strip fitter for the first up run, good upside has shown plenty of ability. Both (12) CINQUE TERRE & (13) CREATIVITY MISS are racing very well & close to a win; they do get back though & lack of pace could be an issue?

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 12 – 13

Suggested Bet: FACUNDO TO WIN.

RACE 8

Very tough race to wind up the day, would have been quite happy to go with (12) CREATIVITY MISS from a wide gate at value however connections have decided on the previous race for her. (2) CELESTIAL BLAZE is likely the obvious now however I still wouldn’t be the least surprised to see a shock result. 2 from 2 this prep he’s beaten horses I’ve tipped on each occasion so although not my favourite at this point in time he’s well drawn with a claim & gets the right run. Should (6) ROCK YA cope with going around second-up off such a long break he should figure in the finish. (11) ADDITION & (13) DON’TCHA THINK in the mix.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 11 – 13

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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