Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

GOD’S RAPTURE was a blackbook run first up when doing her best work late. She steps straight to 1400m now but she raced like she was looking for this distance, was a dominant winner second up last prep and her overall formlines look superior. HEEZA PHOENIX is the new kid on the block but appears to have plenty of upside. Drawn the outside here but both his trial and race debut wins suggest he has enough tactical speed to roll forward.  GIRLS ON FIRE has been going well in easier and 1400m looks within reach now. SO MUCH SERENITY is still a maiden but her runs have been okay and she should lead and kick with only 52kg at a price.

Numbers: 1-3-7-8

Suggested Bet – GOD’S RAPTURE WIN

RACE 2

AIN’TSOBAD has won 4 from 10 and has the speed to overcome the sticky gate. She went too hard in front at Saturday level 2 starts back before dropping back to a midweek and winning with some authority last time out. The extra 100m here shouldn’t be a worry and she’s proven herself effective in all track conditions. MAMA TEMBU has raced in higher grade at her last 13 starts and is a 2-time Belmont Saturday winner. She’s well placed back into a 0MWLY and she’s been making good late ground lately. CLIMB ON TOP has been honest all prep but comes off the bridle at crucial stages in his races and is always a risky proposition with his racing style. WEMBANYAMA is only a C1 but he hit the line super last start and should be peaking now.

Numbers: 3-5-1-9

Suggested Bet – AIN’TSOBAD WIN

RACE 3

TROPICCONI has won 2 of his last 3 starts and burned the candle at both ends in doing so. He was also a huge run in his unplaced effort between his wins when off the track in tumultuous conditions and he should be able to slide across to be on-speed and hard to run down again. GREAT EMOTION didn’t look comfortable first up on a heavy-8 but the trial leading into it was strong and she now gets blinkers on for the first time. Grantham can improve his horses quickly in their preparations so expecting her to bounce back here. SPLIT THE GEE was doing her best work late in a stronger race last start and just needs some luck from a tricky draw. GOLD VANCOUVER is always a query at 1200m but hasn’t done much wrong lately and goes well for Brad Parnham.

Numbers: 4-7-9-5

Suggested Bet – TROPICCONI WIN

RACE 4

STORMAGEDDON produced a slashing first-up run over 1200m for a stayer. Like the fact he’s going 3 weeks between runs and goes straight to 1600m now that the edge has been taken off him somewhat. The reigning Esperance Cup winner should continue to improve as the distances increase. STREET BAND has placed at 4 of his 5 starts this prep and now gets a senior rider back aboard. He hasn’t been far away over a mile recently and has options from his good draw. HOSTILE TALK was only fair last start but can be forgiven on a heavy-8. His previous runs had merit and with solid formlines. GINGER GREEN ran (a distant) fourth to Cosmic Crusader last start and now gets to his pet distance third up.

Numbers: 3-4-7-2

Suggested Bet – STORMAGEDDON WIN

RACE 5

ESSENTRIC NATURE produced a game effort after over-racing 2 starts back then relished Pike and been ridden cold last time out when unleashing a devastating finish to win. He gets in with 57.5kg in the same grade, the horse he beat (Yorga Pride) isn’t here and Elite One (third) franked the form when a well-supported winner last Saturday. DEFERRED gets one last chance. She was luckless 2 starts ago before backing up a week later and didn’t appear to appreciate the heavy-8 surface. She gets blinkers on for the first time now and shouldn’t have any excuses. PROPHET AND POWER hasn’t raced for 8 months and hasn’t won below 1500m but he hasn’t missed a place in his last 12 starts (across 3 preps). He usually goes well fresh and there isn’t much speed inside of him here so he could roll forward. MISS ESPRIT faces tougher opposition than recent efforts but she’s ticking along well and drops in weight with a soft map.

Numbers: 4-8-1-10

Suggested Bet – ESSENTRIC NATURE WIN

RACE 6

LOMBADINA had to peel wide and make a sustained run while I Love Your Smile cut the corner last start but she kept coming and got within a half-length of the winner. She now gets a 1.5kg swing in her favour and importantly draws a much better alley. I LOVE YOUR SMILE has been good at each of her 3 runs this prep and was given a Pike special in her visually-impressive last-start win. She’s the horse to beat but also usually does her best work off 7 days which she’s not here. LYRICAL ANGEL continues to hit the line well and is knocking on the door for a win. EMERALD TRADER has been looming each start and gets out to a trip now.

Numbers: 5-4-9-6

Suggested Bet – LOMBADINA WIN

RACE 7

HE’S ARCHIE doesn’t win out of turn but has been quite good at his last 2 starts. He was pocketed fleetingly by Sweet Tea on straightening last start but once he got clear he reeled off the fastest last 200m of the meeting and was taking late ground off her to be beaten just over a half-length. He gets a 1kg pull and an extra 200m here which should suit. TOO MUCH TALK hasn’t won a race in almost 3 years but was unlucky not to win in this company last start. Held up at a crucial stage before launching late and just needs to see daylight at the right time from the same draw to be in the finish. SWEET TEA followed up an eye-catching trial with a sharp win at a big price and gets an identical map here. ROCK IN WONDER is better suited stepping back up to a mile and should lead again.

Numbers: 7-6-8-2

Suggested Bet – HE’S ARCHIE EACH-WAY

RACE 8

TOO DARDY is a fresh Belmont Park horse and he couldn’t have trialled up much better. Would’ve loved this to be 1000m rather than 1200m first up but he still ticks a lot of boxes, should get a soft run and should be hard to hold out. SILVER EYE was dynamite first up on a heavy-8 track and was scratched last week to wait for this. He’s a great Belmont horse but isn’t quite as effective on top of the ground and has a sticky map to overcome with the surprising lack of speed engaged? BRAVE SPIRIT is a talented type resuming and trialled nicely behind Too Dardy recently. MEMORY PARADE is another who caught the eye at trials and she ran a ripper first up last prep.

Numbers: 7-3-6-4

Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

4,8

3,4,5,6,9,10

2,6,7,8,10

3,4,6,7

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