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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 20

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Hawthorn v Carlton, MCG, 5.30pm

After years of tumult, the Michael Voss era at Carlton had been reasonably settled until about two months ago. Now the Blues are providing headline after headline. Not all bad though.

Sam Docherty’s story is one of resilience and universal love. His decision this week to announce his retirement effective at the final siren of this clash saw an outpouring of emotion. It will no doubt provide Carlton with enormous incentive to ensure the former captain is farewelled appropriately.

Hawthorn must match the willpower of Carlton early, with the return from a foot injury of Will Day adding another layer to their midfield. He is an A-grader in waiting, if not already one.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Patrick Cripps and George Hewett to have 25+ disposals @ $3.20*

FRIDAY

Essendon v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 5.20pm

If the situation wasn’t urgent entering last weekend’s round of fixtures for the Western Bulldogs, it most definitely is now. A tight loss to Brisbane was compounded by Fremantle’s upset of Collingwood, leaving Luke Beveridge’s men with precious little wriggle room from here on in.

Fortunately, they meet Essendon. They obliterated the Bombers by 15 goals earlier in the year and it’s fair to say the team wheeled out by Brad Scott on that occasion was considerably stronger than the line-up for this clash.

The Bulldogs’ percentage is already healthy. It will be glowing by the end of this game.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Western Bulldogs by 25 points or more, game total over 177.5 points and Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton to kick 3+ goals @ $4.75*

GWS v Sydney, ENGIE Stadium, 5.50pm

Operation Stop Isaac Heeney. There must be no other approach from the GWS coaching staff ahead of a critically important encounter between these two rivals.

The blond bombshell produced one of the most compelling individual performances of 2025 against North Melbourne. It was jaw-dropping good and once again underlined how important he is to Sydney’s fortunes.

Talking of importance, the Giants will be boosted by the return from injury of superstar trio Jese Hogan, Sam Taylor and Josh Kelly as they chase another win to enhance their chances of yet another September campaign.

VERDICT: GWS to win

Same Game Multi: Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan to kick 2+ goals @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

Gold Coast v Brisbane, People First Stadium, 11.20am

Nobody needs to tell Gold Coast coach Damien Hardwick and his players that a week is a long time in a footy. From the euphoric high of taking down Collingwood to a goalless first half in a smashing the following round from Adelaide.

That defeat to the Crows was magnified by Daniel Rioli’s leg fracture, leaving him on the sidelines alongside Touk Miller (hamstring) for this Q-Clash with a building Brisbane.

The Lions made a mess of the Suns at the Gabba earlier this season. This is on Gold Coast’s home deck where they have been so impressive in Hardwick’s nearly two-year reign. But not perfect. Just ask Fremantle.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Dayne Zorko, Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage to have 25+ disposals @ $3.55*

Fremantle v West Coast, Optus Stadium, 2.15pm

West Coast have had to wait a full seven days for the opportunity to redeem themselves following a shocking performance against Richmond. The problem is they now run headlong into a Fremantle outfit that has designs on a top-four berth.

The Dockers have pieced together eight wins in their past nine outings, the most recent victory over Collingwood their best of the season. They absorbed pressure and when they desperately needed to, changed the way they moved the ball to overrun the Magpies.

Fremantle have gears. West Coast are stuck in neutral. Some might even say they are in reverse.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Liam Duggan and Liam Baker to have 25+ disposals @ $5.40*

North Melbourne v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 5.35pm

Geelong have treated North Melbourne for disdain for what seems an eternity. The Cats’ 13-game winning streak over North is bleak from a North perspective, perhaps outweighed though by the average winning margin being more than seven goals.

The Cats are purring towards yet another finals appearance, with Jeremy Cameron looking increasingly likely being named the 2025 Coleman medallist. If the supply is up to its usual standard, there is a real prospect of a bag being kicked.

The Kangaroos missed Tristan Xerri (suspension) against Sydney and his ongoing absence will be felt against a quality opponent.

VERDICT: Geelong by 60 points or more

Same Game Multi: Geelong -43.5 points and Jeremy Cameron to kick 4+ goals @ $3.55*

Adelaide v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 6.10pm

Ken Hinkley has always worn his heart on his sleeve. Port Adelaide, under his guidance, have proven to be an emotional football club. It has worked for them on occasions, proven costly other times.

With this being the last time Hinkley is in the Port coaches’ box for a Showdown, Adelaide best be on red alert for a wound-up Power side. That said, it they can match motors early doors, this should be a box they tick and tick comfortably.

The overall balance of Adelaide’s line-up just gets better week to week. They win it at the source, can impact the scoreboard and have defended admirably the past two months.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Jake Soligo and Miles Bergman to have 20+ disposals @ $3.25*

SUNDAY

Richmond v Collingwood, MCG, 12.10pm

Richmond might not want to hear it given there is unfinished business to attend to, but it really doesn’t matter how the Tigers fare over the final month of the season. They have exceeded expectations, therefore the 2025 campaign is a success.

Back-to-back wins have given them five for the year, a figure very few outside the four walls at Punt Road thought they could achieve. And very few thought the Magpies would be entering this match-up on the back of a two-match losing streak.

Despite the defeats to Gold Coast and Fremantle, it appears the Magpies’ game is still in good shape. The return of Dan Houston comes at a good time.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 30 points or more

Same Game Multi: Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos to have 30+ disposals @ $2.48*

St Kilda v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

This market has tightened up all week. So much so that it wouldn’t be a complete and utter shock if St Kilda started favourites. The Saints haven’t won for a while, but they have been competitive against the likes of Sydney, Fremantle and Geelong in recent weeks.

It is a good form reference, certainly better than what Melbourne can offer up, especially considering they were beaten at the MCG last weekend by Carlton, who hardly covered themselves in glory against Hawthorn.

The Saints aren’t stacked, but do possess some attacking weapons. That could prove problematic for a Melbourne backline missing both Steven May and Jake Lever.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win

Same Game Multi: St Kilda to win and Jack Sinclair and Jack Macrae to have 25+ disposals @ $5*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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