Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing in Sydney on Saturday comes from Randwick where we will be racing on near enough to a good track under fine skies. Keen on the chances of the Chris Waller trained (4) CROSSBOW in this opening race. He jumped well first up however went back as no chance of slotting in, last on the home turn his sectionals home were similar to the winner & stablemate Central Coast who is very highly rated. (6) KOKATAHI ran 3rd in the same race after taking over into the straight, that was his debut & he’s been back to the trials since when given an easy time.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: CROSSBOW TO WIN.

RACE 2

Sticking with the last start winner (7) RED RAGS TO BULLS who rounded up her rivals at Rosehill 2 weeks ago sprinting home from second last on the home turn. The impressive part of the win was the lack of speed up front which made her task a tough one, well it should have. (6) IN SUMMER is super consistent, fitter for the first up narrow defeat she drops in grade & did win at this level last prep this track & trip. (3) SO YOU ARE a place hope fresh.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: RED RAGS TO BULLS TO WIN.

RACE 3

(10) CALLISTEMON doesn’t win out of turn however she did the right thing by punters last start when winning here as favourite. She does face a bigger field this afternoon however I like her drawn a gate Jason Collet can take advantage of just as he did at that latest run/win. (5) KINGSTON CHARM didn’t get much of a crack at them first up yet still made ground, probably needs this however rates a place chance. (2) GLAD YOU THINK SO comes down in grade, rises in weight however fitter & can also figure in the placings.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: CALLISTEMON TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 4

Good race for the 3yo’s where I could head in a number of different directions. The quartet I’m keen on are (1) KING’S SECRET, (3) LIVIN’ THING, (9) FLAME OF HESTIA & (11) CELERITY, the latter trio have all shown impressive ‘turns of foot’ within their last couple of starts whilst (1) KING’S SECRET won well at his latest sitting deep throughout. So which one gets the nod? I’ll lean to (3) LIVIN’ THING however I really am torn unfortunately.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Happy to back the lightly weighted (10) AROHA STONE on an each-way basis here. She’s improving nicely this prep & if not for getting involved in traffic issues at the top of the straight last start would have beaten Covert Thinking with a decent gap back to the rest. Yes this is a tougher task however she’s got upside & a weight advantage over her main rivals, don’t see 1800m being an issue either. (2) PIGGYBACK & (3) FEDERER come out of the same last start race won by MISTERKIPCHOGE (also engage here) at Rosehill, that pair clearly the hardest to beat.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Unfortunately I can’t get confident about any of these, on their day they can win, on an off day they could run a long last. Which day will it be today? I’ll lean to (10) PIPPIE BEACH who draws well & gets in with a light weight, the negatives to that are the rise in class & I’m of the opinion she’s at her best on rain affected ground which won’t be the case today. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see (1) AGE OF KINGS improve sharply, back in trip a plus & he drops heavily in class without having to carry a big weight. (4) ZAPHOD & (5) KIRKEBY not out of it either.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up to 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Plenty of weight for the Victorian visitor (1) KATSU who lumps 64kg after the claim, I did like his first up effort for the new yard however that weight does put me off. (5) SHALL BE could be the way to go here being only lightly raced with a good record. Won & placed at only 2 fresh attempts he only put in the one subpar run last prep & there were valid excuses (wide no cover). (3) LULUMON has the right form lines through Storm The Ramparts, also has plenty of weight plus a wide gate to contend with. (4) AVONE a market watch.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Open race where I’ll lean to (4) OH DIAMOND LIL who although a well beaten second last start it was behind one who looks to have returned in great order & destined to win again (next race). No additional weight on her back today & with the perfect draw should get the right run. (7) DON’T FORGET JACK shapes up as though 1600m will suit, he’s been strong to the line his past couple. (8) PUNTIN is doing nothing wrong, (12) FIDDLER’S GREEN a chance.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 8 – 12

Suggested Bet: OH DIAMOND LIL EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Was the first up win of (10) IT’S A KNOCKOUT a little overrated, well we’re about to find out right here. Absolutely dominant she just powered clear of her rivals to win running away by over 4 lengths. Only lightly raced she’d only have to turn up in the same form to win this however you would think she’s improved & if so is clearly the runner to beat once again. (7) RAZORS was having his first run for a year here recently & found the line very well, must include. (11) MICKEY’S MEDAL was terrific last time after making a mess of the start, prior efforts were very consistent.

Numbers: 10 – 7 – 11 – 16

Suggested Bet: IT’S A KNOCKOUT TO WIN.

RACE 10

Wide open affair to wind up the day where I’ll go with the third-up (3) LIBERTY STATE who should roll forward with the step up in distance & find a spot a lot closer than he has at his past couple. (5) CHANGING COLOURS is flying, she needed the speed on to score last start, I’m not so sure she’s going to get it this time around, cannot overlook though. (10) SLINKY in with a chance, good to & through the line last start is unknown out to this trip however bred to run it being by The Autumn Sun.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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