Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

The final Group 1 of the Australian racing season takes place at Eagle Farm on Saturday with the running of the Tatt’s Tiara for the fillies & mares. Weather has been fine all well, expect to race on a good rated surface. Really liked (4) BEREZKA however she’s going around down south instead so I’ll give (3) SHE OURS another chance. Cracking run first up at Ipswich over too short a trip, wide no cover when game at Doomben before too far back from a wide gate the latest. (2) BREAK FREE was scratched from midweek to run here, main danger. 

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: SHE OURS TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 2

(10) TERMAGANT is a favourite of mine & yes, on face value she did disappoint when resuming at the Sunshine Coast. To be fair though it was always going to be a task for her to pick up & sprint with 62.5kg on her back. She raced very well last prep & is much better placed 5.5kg lighter here. The race looks low on tempo, (7) SET TO SHINE will make use of that rails gate, she’s more than capable of giving a very good kick in the straight. Stablemate (6) JOHN RAMBO gets back, that won’t help with the likely tempo however he’s too good on his day to overlook.  

Numbers: 10 – 7 – 6 – 13

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

The ‘Battle Of The Bush’ final is a tipster’s nightmare; we’ve got a capacity line up of horses who have won qualifying races from all over the state & on all types of surfaces. With confidence levels very low I’ll lead to (2) REAL KEY who has the right form, will need luck off the wide alley though. (11) UNDER THE LIMIT is flying & could be the main danger, could…!

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up as many as you can in wide exotics.

RACE 4

Really like the look of the Chris Waller trained (5) AUTUMN BOY who debuted at $51 when mowing down his stablemate over 1250m at Canterbury. Based on the complete lack of interest in his chances on that occasion I can only expect he’ll take a ton of improvement, the step up in distance & bigger track are both positives as is the jock, J. Mac to steer won’t harm his chances. (1) BRAVE DESIGN landed the right trip to win the Oxlade & maps similarly today. Tony Gollan has always pumped up (4) LOCKYER, well he only broke his maiden last start however now with that win under his belt we may see a much better version of him, include in exotics at a big price.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN BOY TO WIN.

RACE 5

The Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup over 2400m features plenty of stayers who do tend to mix their form. I’ve gone with one who fits that category perfectly in (1) SIR LUCAN who was beaten 10L first up before winning comfortably second-up. Yes, impossible to follow however a repeat of the last start has him in with a chance. Similar story with (8) DON DIEGO DE VEGA, third up he should be ready to peak though. (3) BANKERS CHOICE & (2) HEZASHOCKA in the mix.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Competitive looking race for the fillies & mares where I’m with the former UK mare (8) QUIETNESS who ran home nicely into third placing at her first Australian outing on a soft (7) track at Randwick. Super consistent last prep winning 5 of her 7 starts back home her best form is on dry ground which she gets here & the step up in distance is very suitable. (1) PULCHRITUDINOUS is another who may be now looking for the longer trip as she’s won up to 2400m & her last couple have been at the mile. (3) MARE OF MT BULLER comes into the race freshened up, she’s never far away whilst stablemate (4) THALASSOPHILE looks close.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: QUIETNESS EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

Tricky looking Tattersall’s mile where I’m leaning to (5) SIBAAQ who brings a very strong form line. He chased home Pier last start & keep in mind that one ran third behind War Machine in the BRC Sprint, War Machine dominantly won the Stradbroke. Down in weight he does appear very nicely placed however he hasn’t won for some time. (4) RISING PACIFIC loves this track & trip, he’ll be primed to run well. (11) CHICA MOJITO is very consistent however her winning strike rate sums up what she’s capable of doing to punters.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 11 – 6

Suggested Bet: SIBAAQ EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Tattersall’s Tiara is the day’s feature. I’m with the Dane Ripper form line from a fortnight back as being the strongest & have the same three across the line in that race on top here albeit in a different order. (13) TASHI was the best run in that race coming from well off speed to almost run (10) FLOOZIE down who had the box seat trip behind a leisurely tempo. This time around the pace up front looks to be a lot quicker & with that in her favour (13) TASHI, she can turn the tables. (5) FIRESTORM ran home soundly, didn’t motor to the line however no doubt will have been set for this & her second-up record is a good one.

Numbers: 13 – 10 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: TASHI EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Happy to back both (3) GENERAL SALUTE & (8) NEED SOME LUCK in this final race as I’m confident one of the pair will win. The former raced very well last prep winning both starts impressively, drawn out he can sit off what looks to be a strong tempo & zoom home over the top of the hopefully tiring leaders. (8) NEED SOME LUCK from his wide gate will give away a big start, he’s been terrific his past couple, in a perfect world this would be around the 1400m range however with clear running he’s still a big chance. (1) HIDDEN WEALTH will race right up in the firing line; he loves I here though & won’t throw in the towel without a decent fight.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 1 – 13

Suggested Bet: GENERAL SALUTE & NEED SOME LUCK TO WIN.

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