Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Randwick on Saturday with another wet track a certainty. Hopefully we may slip back into the soft range however that’s not a given. The 2yo’s get things underway & I’m with last start winner (1) HIDDEN MOTIVE to make it two straight. He’ll again race up on speed & he appears to be quite at home on the damp ground judging by that victory on a soft (7). BIG watch is on the debutante (7) CENTRAL COAST whose dam is the star mare Sunlight (3 x Group 1 winner), purchased for 1.4 million trials have been good. (3) WOLLZEILE & (2) MATIMA the others with winning chances.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: HIDDEN MOTIVE TO WIN.

RACE 2

Don’t often get excited about ‘Midways’ however I’m quite keen on the chances of (4) ENGINE ROOM today. Successive wins in town Warwick Farm & Kensington he then headed to Gosford last start when hanging throughout, basically eased out of the race on the home turn. He can bounce back strongly here. The consistent (12) HOW MUCH BETTER resumes & ultimately will be suited over further however sharp enough to run a race fresh. (2) PIRAEUS & (1) JUMERIAH BEACH chances, the latter is likely to give a big start, too big?

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: ENGINE ROOM TO WIN.

RACE 3

(1) PIPPIE BEACH is a mare I was a big wrap for earlier in her career however she just became a little too costly forcing me to jump ship. I’m back onboard today which I hope is a good thing as she’s definitely well placed on the very wet ground, in fact with her it’s the ‘wetter the better’. Strong winning first up suited by a solid tempo suggests the mile will be ideal. Stablemate (8) CHANGING COLOURS is flying without winning, her southern form will stack up well here, non-exposure to wet ground is the query though. (3) GOOD BANTER a chance however back in trip likely not ideal.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: PIPPIE BEACH TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 4

To the Highway! (6) SHROPSHIRE LAD is only lightly raced having missed a placing only once in 4 starts & there were excuses on that occasion. He resumed at Scone over their recent carnival sitting deep throughout yet still able to get the win. Suspect he’ll only be further improved. (12) SHE WITHIN ran a couple of nice races in town at this level late last prep, has placed fresh & worth keeping on the safe side. I’ve given up on (8) CARIBBEAN KING as he just doesn’t win, wouldn’t rule him out of the placings though.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: SHROPSHIRE LAD EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

Going with value here putting (14) ELIVINA on top. Only a very lightly raced 3yo filly I didn’t mind her run here 2 weeks back when making some ground from way too far back on a very heavy deck. Bred to run a trip she’ll appreciate the additional 200m this afternoon. (1) HURSTVILLE ZAGREB is also only lightly raced, comes out of the same race as the top tip last start & was a bit flat when he needed to lift, happy to give another chance. (12) BEARINGS is in good form this prep & not without a chance.

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 12 – 3

Suggested Bet: ELVINA EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 6

No reason impressive first up winner (6) OH DIAMOND LIL won’t be winning again here. Sitting up near the lead she zoomed clear in the straight to score comfortably & although yet to win second up has placed at both attempts. Can just see her landing a similar run this afternoon & her form is better than most, if not all of her rivals. (14) FEDERER is a very interesting runner, bolted in his first 2 starts by a cumulative 9.5L he was beaten as a very short-priced favourite his latest & immediately sent to the paddock. Resumes here & has trialled well enough to run well. (2) SPANISH FOX & (4) THUNDERLIPS have the form however not the gates, both will need luck.

Numbers: 6 – 14 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: OH DIAMOND LIL TO WIN.

RACE 7

Import (15) NELLIE LAYLAX gets the nod here at what will be his second local outing. Both starts at his final preparation back home resulted in wins over this distance & I did like the way he stuck on fresh, with that run under his belt he’s going to prove a tougher horse to get past this afternoon. Putting the roughie (16) THAT’S MOLLY in the placings, totally forgive her past couple at Eagle Farm & go on her two good wins prior, the wet ground won’t be a problem for her. (9) COOL JAKEY continues to race consistently & must be included.

Numbers: 15 – 16 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet: NELLIE LAYLAX EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

With FRONT PAGE electing to go around in Brisbane the conditions look perfectly set up for (4) IN FLIGHT to make it 2 straight wins. The key to her is wet ground as she’s an absolute swimmer & should the track remain heavy her chances will increase even more. Really liked the first up run handed in by (7) THE NOVELIST however the ground is a definite concern, should we dry out he’s a definite chance. (3) CONTEMPORARY can improve second up.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: IN FLIGHT TO WIN (heavy or worse side of).

RACE 9

The resuming (11) HEADLEY GRANGE ticks plenty of boxes at his return outing here. At his 3 first up attempts to date he’s won twice & been narrowly beaten the other which was here last prep when looking a little stiff. Trial form is strong, the wet track won’t prove an issue, can return a winner. (2) WHINCHAT holds a very impressive overall strike rate & returned in good order at Scone, main danger. (9) SHADIZI an interesting runner, ex French galloper now with Chris Waller who wasn’t pressured in a recent trial, first up record is a good one, market watch.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet: HEADLEY GRANGE EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

(4) STORM THE RAMPARTS is going along very well this prep & at only run number three this afternoon should still have improvement to come. A winner here last start on heavy ground over this exact trip he can once again park on the lead & prove tough to get past, gate 1 should be a help at least early on. Victorian visitor (6) GITALONG looks very close to a break though & this is his right distance. Fresh record for (5) THE ASTRONOMER is a good one, in fact his overall record is impressive, can’t overlook here fresh.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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