Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Eagle Farm gets underway with a restricted affair over 1830m. Last start winners (1) FREE CARRY & (5) DIVAKARA dominate the market & on recent form that’s fair enough. Which one though? Well, if you can back both & make a profit either way that’s the best option however I can’t sit on the fence so it’s (1) FREE CARRY for me. Both runs this prep have been wins & the horses he’s beaten have gone on to win their next starts, in Red Defcon’s case twice! He’ll roll forward & if able to see the additional trip out will prove the one to beat. (5) DIVAKARA has always shown good promise, bred to get further however he comes off a dominant last start win albeit against questionable inferior opposition. Think it all boils down to (1) FREE CARRY running the trip out strongly. (7) MANNERHEIM can figure, fitter for the latest run.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: FREE CARRY/Saver DIVAKARA.

RACE 2

(3) DIABLO BOLT has accepted here & also down south at Rosehill in a much stronger race. Should connections decide to go around in this it’s hard to see him being beaten. Thought he may need the run last start however that was clearly incorrect as he handled the additional 200m with ease off a month’s break & made it 3 wins from 4 starts this prep, the only defeat coming behind the smart Queen Air. (6) ARIZONA DREAMING rolls forward again in a race with little speed on paper, if left alone will take some running down. (1) WARP SPEED the only other likely on-pacer should be included in exotics.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: DIABLO BOLT TO WIN.

RACE 3

Set weights Class 1, not the usual Saturday fare. I just couldn’t take a short price about (4) WINSOME STAR however it does look his race. Problem is that’s been said a few times in the past & he’s still sitting at one solitary career win & 9 placings. He comes out of much stronger recent races when not far away & this track & trip seem to suit. (6) JACOB’S LADDER put together consecutive placings his first two starts both at Warwick Farm, he then went to Canberra for an easy kill, well it wasn’t as easy as hoped however he got the job done & back up to 1400m looks a positive. (10) MIST OF DAWN keeps running on, cut & paste here.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: WINSOME STAR TO WIN ($3.00 or better).

RACE 4

Small field in the Open Handicap however I can assure you it doesn’t make the task any easier. The leading Tony Gollan stable has 4 of the 7 runners & they dominate the market, no surprise there, any one of the quartet can win. I’ll lean to (4) TENZING who meets most that he’s raced before a little better at the weights, he can take up a position just off speed & finish off strongly. (1) KRONENBOURG has been known to mix his form, on his day he’s well up to winning this. (2) RISING PACIFIC did beat home (4) TENZING last start however with a 2.5kg difference today that could well be reversed. (3) DEVASTATE the other stable runner, costly his past couple I prefer him on wet ground.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Giving (4) BLUE SPINEL another chance here. Fair to say she hasn’t lived up to the promise she showed earlier in her career, I recall her winning two straight here 1000 & 1200m finishing strongly on each occasion. Her past couple have looked a lot more like the old her though & this isn’t a tough race, if she’s going to win again this looks her chance. (3) MR GALAZI is never far away, struggles to win though, definitely one for the exotics players. The resuming (9) SUPER DAISY got on a winning roll last prep & is already a first up winner, include. (10) WILD BOTANICA also a chance, is on the quick back up from Last Saturday at the Gold Coast.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 9 – 10

Suggested Bet: BLUE SPINEL TO WIN.

RACE 6

This is very tough, I can report I spent a long time on this race & still have no confidence. (2) GIN A TONIC didn’t exactly fire last prep however his runs were ok, his best was his fresh effort when not far from the winner. His recent trial at the Sunshine Coast suggests he’s going along ok, market will be our best guide though. (9) ROCKY REWARD is the one horse in the race I do have confidence in, problem is 1000m will just be too short, he is fresh though & you never know as there’s plenty of speed up front & they may all hit the wall late. (7) CONCESSION draws out, not ideal however can measure up with luck. (3) SPEEDY ONE & (4) HIDDEN NUGGET bring good form however they are very fast & likely to be looking for an Uber late.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Going with the lightly raced (6) ANAVINCI from the Neasham/Archibald stable who placed at Rosehill albeit in midweek company last start. That level is likely good enough to get away with this & keep in mind her previous two outings she wasn’t far from a couple of decent types, particularly Sandpaper. (9) HERMANITA hasn’t had much go her way both runs this prep, due for a change of luck today she draws ok & gets the claim for Tahlia Fenlon. Surely (1) TOJAKI shows a bit more this prep starting right here?

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

(8) OUROBOROS was scratched from the 1000m race earlier in the day to tackle 1200m here & I like the thinking behind that. Just feel he’ll get an easier time up front with far less pressure & keep in mind he has won out to this trip down south. He strips fitter for the first up win & obviously has no issues with this surface. (2) PIZZARO surely peaks here, last couple have been strong closing efforts, will have to carry a decent weight though. (4) MAJORELLE tends to perform well fresh, could be one to include in exotics at a value price.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet: OUROBOROS TO WIN/Saver PIZZARO.

RACE 9

(8) SET TO SHINE was terrific winning here last start. She mapped to lead however couldn’t cross the first pair ending up 3 wide facing the breeze the trip, entitled to throw in the towel down the straight she just kept on giving & prevailed narrowly on the line. Gate 1 today ensures she won’t be wide, will carry less weight & fully fit. Stablemate (5) WARBY draws the inside which likely sees him closer in the run then we’re used to, he’ll be chasing hard, looks the danger. (6) FRENCH ENDEAVOUR finished close up in Group 2 company last start, did well in what was a trot & canter suiting the leader/winner.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: SET TO SHINE TO WIN/Saver WARBY.

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