Races

The Everest Power Rankings: Week 8

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Overview

Very open looking race this year & it’s remained that way for quite some time. There really hasn’t been a runner or runners who have put their hand up to say I’m the horse to beat, most have just done what they’ve needed to do to get into the field. Now that they are there the trick is trying to figure out just how much has been left in the tank for the big day? Only their trainers know the answer to that question. The track condition & racing pattern on the day is going to be the number one factor, I cannot stress that enough, we’ve had decent rain early in the week which resulted in a heavy (8) rating on Tuesday, there’s a mix of sun & showers in the lead-up.

1. BELLA NIPOTINA
Last Week: 1
Current Odds: $8.50

Iron mare who just seems to thrive on racing. She’s a 3-time Group 1 winner with two of those victories coming during the Brisbane winter where she jousted with I Wish I Win twice with the score ending up one all. Her two lead-up runs have been fast finishing & in all fairness she was unlucky not to win the latest (Premiere) when help up & having to contend with an unsuitable tempo, hers was clearly the best run in the race & a perfect final lead-up. She’s fared poorly at the barriers, there’s no getting away from that, what she needs is a near or heavy track as she’ll then be able to get to the outside (best going) with an unimpeded finishing run. Gut feel says her winning chances lie in the laps of the weather gods.

2. I WISH I WIN
Last Week: 2
Current Odds: $6.50

Narrowly beaten in the big race last year when drawing the inside gate & having to wait to gain a crack at the leaders, once clear he couldn’t run by Think About It & for mine was being held on the line, maybe with more time to wind up the result would have been different, we’ll never know. He was second up & 6 weeks between runs last year however this time around has already had two starts & will only be 3 weeks between runs when he lines up on Saturday. Although I was expecting a little more of him in the Manikato last start the Moody/Coleman combination know him a lot better than I do. Importantly the horse handles all types of going & he’s the one I feel has the most improvement to come on the day.

3. GROWING EMPIRE
Last Week: 6
Current Odds: $7

In my opinion he’s the best chance of a 3yo victory. On the map he’ll roll forward with Storm Boy & Lady Of Camelot, will Kerrin McEvoy let that pair go & take a trail or will he push on & park outside Storm Boy who will lead should he jump cleanly, well, he’s won 3 Everest’s McEvoy suggesting whatever his decision is, it will likely be the right one! Such a progressive type he was only beaten narrowly in the Manikato when taking on the older horses. He has plenty of upside, a light weight, a turn of foot & just might end up with the box seat run.

4. SUNSHINE IN PARIS
Last Week: 3
Current Odds: $10

Well in contention for last year’s race having landed a slot she unfortunately suffered a minor foreleg injury which put an end to her entire spring campaign. She then reappeared in the autumn when narrowly beaten first up in The Galaxy before striking consecutive wet tracks which she just doesn’t enjoy although to her credit she wasn’t far away in the T.J. Smith (heavy 8). Dominant first up in the Sheraco she gave Joliestar a decent beating which was a surprise to many as that mare had looked like the second coming of Winx first up. On a dry track I can’t see Joliestar turning the tables from that previous meeting, should we be on the worst side of soft though I’m very concerned.  She’ll also have to break a significant hoodoo, 16 mares have gone around in The Everest to date, not one of them has figured in the placings.

5. JOLIESTAR
Last Week: 8
Current Odds: $6

Once Chris Waller selected her to fill his slot in the race & J. Mac exited away from Giga Kick after the Premiere to take the ride she’s been very well found by the punters. I’ll put my hand up & say I may have got a little carried away with her first up win in the Show County as she was so dominant just picking up, passing & gapping her rivals effortlessly, maybe she didn’t beat a lot & that showed up in the Sheraco where she was no match for Sunshine In Paris. Both mares haven’t raced since, she did go around in a recent trial however out the back she wasn’t asked for any effort. She’s the one in the race who maps ideally on good or soft ground, can she break the mares hoodoo? Well, she’s got the right combination in her corner & Chris Waller doesn’t get it wrong very often.

6. PRIVATE EYE
Last Week: 4
Current Odds: $31

He’s an Everest specialist having placed at both outings in the big race & his sole Group 1 victory did come here at Randwick back in 2021 when winning the Epsom over 1600m. Very versatile in recent preparations he is never far away & is about as honest as they come, he hasn’t been over raced & Joe Pride has always placed him to perfection. Circumstances have seen him settle well back in the field at both runs this time in before coming wide & making good ground, nothing has panned out in his favour at all yet he’s been able to clock impressive sectionals on each occasion. He’s a victim of a bad draw once again & will likely end up parked back in the field facing a task, I just can’t count him out though & a win certainly won’t surprise, I’ll be including him in everything as I feel he’s going as well as he ever has.

7. TRAFFIC WARDEN
Last Week: 5
Current Odds: $7

With a few other youngsters engaged is hoping to become the third 3yo to win the race following in the footsteps of Yes Yes Yes & Giga Kick. Form around his own age has always been very strong having won a couple of Group 2’s & almost holding out his highly rated stablemate Broadsiding in the Golden Rose at his latest appearance. As with all the 3yo’s he’s well-placed weight wise against the older horses & his trainer will have him ready to run through a brick wall. Not sure the gate is ideal though as he may find himself in an awkward spot particularly should the track be soft or worse.

8. STEFI MAGNETICA
Last Week: 9
Current Odds: $14

Landed hers & Zac Lloyd’s initial Group 1 when winning the Stradbroke during the Queensland winter nosing out Bella Nipotina in a stirring duel, keep in mind the reigning Everest Champ Think About It also won the Stradbroke in the same year. She’s come a long way in a short space of time winning a Benchmark 58 at Orange less than a year ago to competing in Group 1’s & now an Everest. Her return effort at Randwick flying home along the fence to just miss catching I Am Me in the 1100m Shorts was terrific & she’s been kept fresh with that race being 4 weeks ago. She has trialled recently at Rosehill when urged along running into 2nd spot, she was held by the winner who led throughout, to be honest I expected her to win that.

9. GIGA KICK
Last Week: 7
Current Odds: $13

Winner of the race back in 2022 at $21 which is the longest priced & only double figure winner of The Everest to date. He suffered a significant injury last spring & was off the scene for a year returning in the Concorde when caught wide in the run, through the line he was quite strong suggesting promising times ahead. He then turned up in the Premiere off the back off an impressive last to first barrier trial win & when parked one x one in the run many expected him to ‘cut loose’ in the straight. Well, he didn’t, in fact he was quite flat before doing his best work late, Bella Nipotina ran past him & had factors against. Trainer suggests he’s improved plenty of that run & that may well be the case, I really hope he has, he’ll need to.

10. STORM BOY
Last Week: 10
Current Odds: $13

Expected to lead & with an even getaway will do just that, he can be a little unreliable in the gates though as was the case two back when being used up to find the front, either way I’d be surprised to see him take a sit. Freshened up & back from the 1400m of the Golden Rose he’ll have his admirers & you just know the stable will have him rock hard fit, he’s going to give a hec of a sight & won’t be shirking his task in the straight. Suggest he needs a good rated track to give the race a shake.

11. I AM ME
Last Week: 11
Current Odds: $17

Drawn the pole gate she’ll be looking to stalk the three on paced/leading runners however should the going be soft or worse she’s going to find herself on the worst park of the track. Whilst I can’t knock what she’s been doing this prep winning at Group 2 & 3 level she’s had a gun run behind the speed on the fence & just managed to win, had those races been 1200m she’d have been beaten. Suggest she’ll be vulnerable late in the race & happy to pass.

12. LADY OF CAMELOT
Last Week: 12
Current Odds: $41

Golden Slipper winner who hasn’t figured in the placings both runs back this prep however in her defence she’s gone straight into a couple of Group 1’s. She did win a very hot trial recently when racing wide on speed, she wasn’t pushed out however the entire field fell under that category. She’ll go forward from the wide draw & settle in the first three however I can’t see her being there at the finish.

Odds correct at the time of publication.

Market Market



Recent Articles