Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

DIAMOND SCENE looks a promising stayer on the rise. Unbeaten in 3 starts this prep and produced a dominant performance in the Apprentices’ Cup last time out when stepping up to 2200m and bolting in untouched. He rises 4kg from that effort but William Pike takes over riding duties and he appears to have a stack of upside. DUN WITH THE BLUES is another progressive staying type. She was 6 weeks between runs last start and was a great effort to get as close as she did after finding traffic in the straight. PLAYHOUSE PATRON’S racing style isn’t conducive to Ascot but he’s flying and former regular rider Joey Azzopardi jumps aboard for the first time this prep. GHOBELLA is probably unsuited stepping up further in distance but she hasn’t been far off Diamond Scene and Toni’s Spirit at her last two and meets both gallopers on 2.5kg better weight terms here.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – DIAMOND SCENE WIN

RACE 2

CLIMB ON TOP has hit the line impressively at both runs back – including his last-start midweek win – and has always looked like a horse who would appreciate blinkers. He tends to hit a flat spot in his races but he gets addition of the shades for the first time here and any natural improvement should see him in the finish again. PLAYZ WITH FIRE looks ready to break through and will appreciate stepping to 1400m. She’s been good at both runs back and will be hard to hold out. OUTSPOKEN LAD looks very well placed first up after Brayden Gearth’s claim. He was a winner in this grade carrying 1kg more 5 starts back before placing at his next 4 outings in 66+ and 72+ company. His recent trial was super alongside some nice types. KING’S SICARIO made a nice return when beaten less than a length by subsequent winner Stormy Tawny first up and ran well in stronger races last prep.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – CLIMB ON TOP EACH-WAY

RACE 3

BROOKLYN PIER followed up a nice trial with slashing runs at his first two runs back from a spell. He’s going career-best at the moment, stays in the same grade and maps to enjoy a favourable run parked behind the speed. He looks a nice each-way proposition. STARRY HEIGHTS ended a brilliant winter campaign with 4-straight wins and was a sharp improver with the blinkers going on in his second trial recently. He’s yet to race at Ascot and his wins were all on rain-affected ground over a mile at Belmont but he must still be respected. CURRIMUNDI was tested at WFA level in the Lee Steere last start and now drops 1kg dropping right back in grade. He’s a winner who should be ready to peak third up. BRUCE ALMIGHTY was good 2 starts back but only fair last Saturday. He now backs up off 7 days where he’s usually effective (7: 2-3), drops 2kg after Luke Campbell’s claim and comes back to 1400m.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – BROOKLYN PIER EACH-WAY

RACE 4

ONEMORETWOMANY gets a wonderful opportunity to extend his record to 2 from 2. He’s the only winner in the 12-horse field (9 are unraced), drops 0.5kg under the Set Weights conditions and can find the front again if he crosses Something Royal. SOMETHING ROYAL has trialled up the best of the debutants and has also drawn inside of Onemoretwomany. It’ll be interesting to see how aggressive William Pike is from the inside draw. Stablemate SUNSHINE TAFE is another debutant who has trialled up well in 400m heats, while BATTLE COMMANDER ran a ripper on debut and looks a nice type but the outside draw is a killer.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet – ONEMORETWOMANY WIN

RACE 5

CASINO SEVENTEEN made a sustained run against the pattern of the day when third in the Northam Cup first up then got held up badly in the straight when starting a $2 favourite in the Luckygray Stakes. Once he eventually got clear he was strong through the line to end up being beaten less than a length and he meets Another Chino 2kg better off here so he should be very hard to beat with even luck. QUEEN ALINA was jumping from 66+ grade to Listed company and 1400m to 1800m second up when charging home in the fastest final furlong of the Luckygray. She meets Another Chino 3kg better for only a half-length defeat and will appreciate the extra 300m. BLACK FANTASY gets in sweetly only 1kg above the minimum after contesting the Asian Beau and RJ Peters at his first two runs back from a lengthy lay off. He’s a proven stayer who gets in beautifully at the weights but he also has to rise 600m off 7 days. ANOTHER CHINO is a top staying talent who can win again despite conceding weight swings to rivals from last start.

Numbers: 1 – 12 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – CASINO SEVENTEEN WIN

RACE 6

BIG SCREEN could be a forgotten horse in an even contest. He lumped a full 62kg last start when leading at fast sections and fighting on well to be beaten only 2L by Dessenea (who had a 7.5kg pull on him). He now drops 7kg, drops back to 1400m and most importantly finds a race where he’s the only leader for the first time in some time. He can get things much softer than he has of late and give cheek at odds. MAGNIFICENT ANDY got held up at a crucial stage in the RJ Peters last Saturday then flashed late when it was all over. SJ Miller and Brad Parnham are absolutely flying at the moment and Brad’s drawn to get a lovely run with brother Chris and Let’s Galahvant buried away to their inside. LET’S GALAHVANT is an iron horse who has been up for a long time but shows no sign of slowing down. No reason why he can’t win if the gaps appear at the right time in the straight. POMPEY is going equally as well.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – BIG SCREEN EACH-WAY

RACE 7

SUPER SMINK had her colours lowered at the hands of the white-hot Keshi Boom in the Burgess Queen Stakes but history was against her that day. 9 of the past 12 Belgravia Stakes winners have been fillies, 7 of which went to the Burgess Queen 10 days later and all 7 have lost. She’s a genuine star who meets Keshi Boom 4kg better off from their last-start encounter and she looks more than capable of replicating Amelia’s Jewel’s feats from last year when winning the Belgravia, getting beaten in the Burgess Queen and then bouncing back in the Guineas. KESHI BOOM has gone to a new level over the past three weeks. She has to back up for the first time in her career and she concedes a negative weight swing to Super Smink but she couldn’t be going any better. ZIPAWAY was arguably the run of the meeting when charging home in all the fastest closing splits on an on-speed day in the Fairetha. He’s drawn a gate and looks like he’s crying out for a mile now. AUTUMN REBEL was still 7 lengths off the leader at the 200m mark in a breathtaking maiden win last start and was unlucky not to finish a lot closer to Zipaway prior to that. Don’t discount if they’re making ground.

Numbers: 13 – 14 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – SUPER SMINK WIN

Same Race Multi – SUPER SMINK (Top 2) + Zipaway (Top 4)

RACE 8

ALSEPHINA looks primed to land William Pike and Team Williams an incredible sixth Railway Stakes win in the past decade. She peaked on her run first up off a 10-month lay off in the Asian Beau before finding trouble in the straight in the R.J. Peters last week and charging home in one of the fastest final furlongs of the day once clear. She now drops 6kg to the 53kg minimum, backs up off 7 days (where she’s 2 for 2), gets blinkers on for the first time and has drawn an ideal barrier for her pattern. BUSTLER has been very good without much luck at his two runs back. He drops 6kg coming out of WFA last start, is now third-up over a mile (ran second to Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas this day last year) and should get the run of the race parked behind the speed. TUVALU undoubtedly has the best form in the race and could also find the front dropping back to his first handicap assignment in 8 starts. He’s a proven Group 1 galloper who has everything in his favour bar history, with only 1 of the past 13 Railway Stakes winners saluting with more than 53.5kg. His 58kg impost is likely a leveller. COMFORT ME has been good at both runs back and has finished second in the past two editions of the Railway, jumping from gate 15 on both occasions. He drops 5kg from the Lee Steere and can play a part again with luck.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – ALSEPHINA WIN

Same Race Multi – ALSEPHINA (Top 2) + Bustler (Top 4)

RACE 9

REAR ADMIRAL was fancied first up at this track, grade and distance and was probably only an even return when third to Saloon Bar. She meets him 2kg better at the weights and more importantly gets the addition of blinkers for the first time with the benefit of a run under her belt, all the while going around at an each-way price. She’s a quality mare at her best. TRIPLE JAY has a lot of X-factor but simply can’t draw a gate. Scratched last week when drawn the carpark and he now looks set to jump from 16/16 4 weeks between runs. LENIENCY is a lightly-raced 4YO resuming off the back of a nice trial without his blinkers. He’s won 4 from 7 and can play a part if he can blend into the moving line from his awkward alley. SALOON BAR can be hard to catch but his consistency is hard to knock and he goes super for JJ Noske.

Numbers: 14 – 9 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – REAR ADMIRAL EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,4,9,11

13,14

1,3,5,7,8

5,7,8,9,13,14

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