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The Scout: EPL Week 11 Preview

Posted on | Posted by The Scout

Brentford v West Ham United – Saturday, November 4 (Kick-off 11pm WA time) 

West Ham might be keen to get back to winning ways in the Premier League but this will be another tricky fixture. Forget about their midweek League Cup win over Arsenal, the Hammers have won just one of their last six Premier League games after starting the season on a four-match unbeaten streak.

Brentford have won their past two games after failing to win any of their previous six matches. But they have an impressive record against London teams.

Goals from Ethan Pinnock and Bryan Mbeumo saw off Chelsea last weekend as Brentford extended to 13 matches their unbeaten stretch in Premier League derbies in the UK capital. This season, they’ve also drawn 2-2 with league leading Tottenham Hotspur, beaten Fulham 3-0 and drawn 1-1 with Crystal Palace.

The Bees have now won four successive away matches in London for the first time in their league history. It seems that Thomas Frank and the Brentford boys just love London.

The key to success for the Hammers is finding some of that early season verve that saw off Chelsea, Brighton and Luton Town before they ran into Manchester City – which, based on last weekend’s performance in a defeat to Everton, is easier said than done.

Moyes has blamed a lack of creativity on the form slump. And given that West Ham managed just two shots on target in their loss to the Toffees, the stats back up the manager’s concerns.

Jarrod Bowen, who scored in the win over Arsenal, is West Ham’s top scorer this season with six league goals, the same tally achieved by Brentford’s top marksman Mbeumo.

The Hammers are ninth on the table, a point above 10th-placed Brentford. Both teams have averaged 1.6 goals per game this season, although Brentford have defended slightly better, conceding only 1.2 goals per match to West Ham’s 1.7.

Suggest Bet: Draw + Under 2.5 total goals (Same Game Multi) @ $4.70*

Everton v Brighton – Saturday, November 4 (Kick-off 11pm WA time) 

Last weekend’s victory over West Ham United has given Everton a new sense of belief. The fact that Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored the winner in a man-of-the-match performance made it all the more special.

Calvert-Lewin has been injured so often in recent times that it’s worth keeping an eye on the pre-match press conference in case Sean Dyche rules him out of the Brighton clash.

Jokes aside, all should be well for the big striker, who finally notched up 50 Premier League goals. It has taken seven years and 188 appearances to achieve that milestone.

Calvert-Lewin has three league goals this season and if anyone is going to score for Everton it is highly likely to be the 26-year-old.

Whatever you think of home-ground advantage, it’s worth considering that the away side has won each of the past four fixtures between these sides. In the past three games, 16 goals have been scored with Everton thrashing Brighton 5-1 at the Amex Stadium late last season when Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dwight McNeil scored two goals each, after the Seagulls had won 4-1 at Goodison Park. Brighton also edged a 3-2 victory at Goodison in 2022, while Everton won 2-0 at the Amex.

The odds, and this odd pattern of results, are in Brighton’s favour. Despite winning just one of their past five league games, Roberto De Zerbi’s side have bagged 23 goals in their 10 matches this season. Everton have managed just 10 goals, which is one of the reasons they find themselves 15th in the Premier League, seven places and seven points behind seventh-placed Brighton.

Young striker Evan Ferguson is Brighton’s leading scorer with five goals but Kaoru Mitoma is up there for excitement with three assists and three goals. Joao Pedro has six goals this season, with four coming in the Europa League, while Ansu Fati, on loan from Barcelona, has quickly settled into life in the Seagulls’ nest.

Fati and Joao Pedro were both on target in last week’s 2-0 Europa League win over Ajax, which was Brighton’s historic first European victory.

Suggested Bet: Half Time/Full Time, Brighton/Brighton + Over 2.5 Total Goals (Same Game Multi) @ $4.50*

Newcastle United v Arsenal – Sunday, November 5 (Kick-off 1.30am WA time) 

History is on Arsenal’s side as they look to extend their Premier League unbeaten streak when they take on Newcastle United at St James’ Park.

Interestingly, you have to rewind the clock to September 2018 to find a Newcastle-Arsenal fixture in which both teams scored.

Since that 2-1 Arsenal victory at St James’ Park, the Gunners have won eight of 10 matches, five of those ending 2-0, while Newcastle have won just once (2-0 in 2022). The teams also drew 0-0 at the Emirates Stadium last season.

The gap has closed since Eddie Howe’s appointment in 2021 but Arsenal continue to hold the whip hand over the Geordies and, midweek League Cup defeat to West Ham aside, are in good form heading into this one.

Unbeaten in 10 games this season, the Gunners are second on the table, two points below leaders Tottenham and a single goal keeping them above third-placed Manchester City.

Eddie Nketiah is their man of the moment with a spectacular hat-trick last weekend in a 5-0 crushing of Sheffield United. But the victory that stands out most for Arteta is the 1-0 success against defending champions City last month, when Gabriel Martinelli scored a late winner.

After a stuttering start to the season, Newcastle’s midweek League Cup win over Manchester United meant they have now lost just one of their past 11 games in all competitions.

Early season defeats to City, Liverpool and Brighton have given way to a great run of form, which included a 4-1 Champions League win over Paris Saint-Germain. Most recently Premier League draws against West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers have come either side of a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace.

Callum Wilson is in good form with seven of Newcastle’s 26 goals this season. But goals won’t come easily against an Arsenal side that has conceded just 0.8 goals per game this season.

Suggested Bet: Draw + Both teams to score (Same Game Multi) @ $4*

*Odds correct as at 10am, 2nd November 2023.

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