Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

Off the inside draw DEVASTATING looks tough to beat & keep in mind he’s third up off a very long layoff suggesting he should have improved since that last start victory at Eagle Farm. He’s very consistent & has raced well against better company, leading jockey Jimmy Orman should have him in the right spot whether that’s in the first couple or trailing. No jockey for OUTLAWED who did impress me winning a maiden, no surprise to see measure up here should she go around. HARD TO SAY won well down south fresh, second up record not as solid however can’t be overlooked.

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: DEVASTATING TO WIN

RACE 2

Not too keen on these races, anything is possible. WAIRERE FALLS hasn’t won for quite some time & I wouldn’t be having my last on him. By the same token he doesn’t meet a strong bunch here & I just liked his very late surge at Eagle Farm last start at the end of 1835m. NIKAU SPUR is in consistent form & can definitely figure again. FIFTH POSITION a market watch, newcomer to the Tony Gollan stable, ex Melbourne where his form is only average of late.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 3

I’ve been tipping GAIUS regularly of late & he’s been quite consistent bar his latest when not finishing off at all. Perhaps he found the 1500m too far particularly off a 3-week break, this time around he drops back to 1350m & gets a 3kg claim for the very capable Jake Molloy. This isn’t a strong race & he again rates a strong each-way chance. ARGYLE PINK tough to beat, first up 1350m is my concern however she has trialled well. AIRSTRIKE is a consistent mare with a chance, likes a smother & should get that from the inside draw.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 15 – 16

Suggested Bet: GAIUS EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 4

This is tough! Changed my original thoughts & am now with the consistent RED TOP whose only sub-par effort within his past 5 starts was a 9th in the Group 3 Winx Guineas at the Sunshine Coast. At that level the run wasn’t bad at all & from a good gate with the claim should run well. ASHGROVE has to deal with a horror draw however I do like him better out to the longer trip. BETCHA THE CROWN had zero chance last start with a wide draw & lack of tempo against, can improve.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 5

The more scratchings in this race the smaller this field is getting which will likely play into the hands of KINLOCH however the number of backmarking favourites getting beaten lately is too much & this could well be another? BRIARS KINGDOM is a market watch & the way I’m leaning, she’s good fresh & was given a recent quiet trial, parks in the first four. RELEASE THE BEANS continues to race consistently, will be closing in at the right end of the race.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 12

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for BRIARS KINGDOM

RACE 6

No better form than winning form & that’s what VODKA MARTINI has plenty of! Have no doubt though this is a tougher assignment for him rising in both distance & weight however the price is fair (wouldn’t be interested in anything short) & importantly he does draw a good gate which gives jockey Cejay Graham options. SHAMATON & BIRRIECART the logical dangers however both draw wide gates & will need plenty of luck.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: VODKA MARTINI

RACE 7

Hard to miss the closing effort from THE PLAYER first up here two weeks ago. Drawing the outside gate he wasn’t the best to begin ending up last & in an awkward spot on the fence heading for home. Held up early in the straight he gained clear running late & flew through between rivals to just miss in a blanket finish, 200m further today looks ideal. DEEP RESPECT looked good on debut winning his maiden overcoming an ordinary start, note he settled on speed in his trial suggesting he likely won’t be worse than midfield this time. SHOT OF WHISKEY didn’t get a lot of room in the straight first up however when clear only really held his ground?

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: THE PLAYER EACH-WAY

RACE 8

Wouldn’t be taking worse than $5 about DON’T STOP who just may have found the right race here. He’s finished close up his past couple of starts the latest last Saturday here over 1350m. Yes, there’s a slight query on the drop back in trip however he’s well drawn to hopefully hold a spot & the claim brings him down to a light weight. CONTEMPTUOUS the best horse in the race drawn poorly though, needs plenty of luck! SPACEBOY every chance last start, decent weight drop suggests he’ll be harder to run down this time.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 9

Going to stick with HELEVA DEEL however I’ll be guided by the market as she was all set to go around here last Saturday in a very suitable race however was a race morning scratching. Was there an issue? She again looks well placed in this race however I’m nowhere near as confident. HOKAHEY drew inside when a winner two back, that’s the key with her as he can drift too far out of her ground from wide draws. SHOPPING ESPRIT in the mix from the bad gate, needs luck though.

Numbers: 15 – 9 – 6 – 14

Suggested Bet: HELEVA DEEL/HOKAHEY TO WIN

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