Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on June 1, 2023June 1, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DANCE OF THE SOUTH was over a month between runs going into her last assignment when finishing third behind stablemate Django Dream and Cable Guy. With the unavailability of Austin Galati Cable Guy has been scratched and that opens the race up for Dance Of The South. Holly Watson rides these types well and she can roll forward into a commanding position at an eachway quote. RUBY NOIR was ridden very confidently last start and couldn’t quite reel them in late. Considering she was 56 days between runs over 2000m with 59.5kg it was a great effort. RED HOT HOPE dropped back into this grade three starts ago when running well. HARVEYS ANGEL is coming to hand nicely.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 9 – 13

Suggested Bet – DANCE OF THE SOUTH EACHWAY

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RACE 2 

DUCHESS OF GOSSIP was extremely green on debut at Kalgoorlie and headed back to trials. Finished second to impressive subsequent winner Falcon Trader (5L back to third) at Pinjarra on a Soft7 and then toyed with them at Northam beating Red Rebel (winner at his next outing). Not easy to rise 2.5kg from a maiden into a C1 and win again but she looks to have a lot of upside. DEBONNAIRE went from a maiden into a 60+ Graduation and somehow jumped $2.40 – punters plz. This is a much more suitable race for him and he’ll go round double that quote. WHO BE WHATEE sat three deep the trip when making Shot Of Elegance work for her maiden before winning soft last Thursday. HART TRADER can give cheek at 100-1.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 4 – 14

Suggested Bet – DUCHESS OF GOSSIP WIN

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RACE 3

KRYSANOVA trialled super for her return to racing and then did everything possible wrong first-up. She missed the kick, she over-raced, she gave Brad Parnham a headache and a nightmare. Trevor Andrews pulls all the gear off and hopefully that’s the trick to see her back to her best. Willing to forgive one moody shocker. DREAMERS NEVER DIE had to wait for the cutaway run on debut and then shot clear. Looks to have a lot of raw ability and should be winning plenty of races. SASS MACHINE is a jump and run filly who is your ideal 1000m scamper filly. WHY ME trialled super in a blistering 59.24 over the 1000 at Belmont. Looks to have come back in great order.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – KRYSANOVA WIN

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RACE 4

VOGUE’S CHOICE had four runs last preparation and nothing really went her way. She’s clearly a fresh mare (2 of her three wins are first-up) and whilst not winning, first-up last preparation she finished only 2L off Real Danger and Category Three. That pair have won 5 races between them since. Liked her trial and think she can stalk the hot tempo likely to be set by My Baby Blue Jean, Ginger Jones and Ultimate Command. Worth a throw at the stumps at double figures. MY BABY BLUE JEAN ran into a sharp line-up of 60+ Graduation types. Divine Belief and Colossal are better animals then you’ll meet in a Westspeed Platinum. Should lead for a long way. THE LADY IS A VAMP looks your perfect William Pike horse. Sit and sprint. LEICA JAGUAR doesn’t like Belmont or any rain. Might be his swan song?

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – VOGUE’S CHOICE EACHWAY

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RACE 5

CATALPA won as soft as you’re likely to see all Belmont season. He lobbed into the perfect spot in running, he travelled boldly under William Pike and he presented at the perfect time. Hit the front in neutral and got right away from them late to win by 2L eased down. 7 days later he strikes a small field where he can park up outside of Flying Missile and from there he looks likely to make it back to back wins. FLYING MISSILE drops 1kg on her first-up victory in this grade at Ascot. Given the lack of speed expecting that Victoria Corver will take it up and control the race. KOSTA’S CROWN is going super. He was three deep the trip last start and kept coming bravely late. VITALIZE next best.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – CATALPA WIN

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RACE 6

FEAR THE WIND has had the perfect handicapping/programming preparation. He has won his last three races against almost identical line-ups and carried nearly the same weight each and every time. Opposition horses are getting consistent weight swings on him but he’s being afforded every chance by William Pike and just continues to win. Another perfect race for him on paper. CISCOJOE gets 3kg on him for a short head defeat on 6 May and 1.5kg for a half length defeat on 20 May. Weights say he’ll go very close again. Deserves to win one. SLUICE BOX gets a senior rider and that’s very important to a horse like him. COOLTH can come on quickly getting out to a suitable trip.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – FEAR THE WIND WIN

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RACE 7

BITOFMERIT is a very sharp sprinter. This race only has 8 horses but with Olga Louisa engaged you know they’ll fly. From the draw Bitofmerit just needs to keep his main rivals within his sights and going off his impressive recent trial he looks every chance of keeping his undefeated fresh record in tact (4 from 4 to date). Would love to see him stay sound so we can see just how good he is. SNOWDOME drops back to 1000m and is drawn outside of Olga Louisa, State Of Power and Real Danger. He’ll need to get himself across but if he jumps like he did last start that shouldn’t be any problem. STATE OF POWER is ultra consistent and a bit of give in the track will help her cause. REAL DANGER has gone under the radar for her entire career. Little ripper.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – BITOFMERIT WIN

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RACE 8

BLACK SPIRIT went awfully close last start. She sat in the breeze, gave a big kick on straightening and was nabbed right on the line in the narrowest of photo finishes. She’s consistent, she’s got an attractive racing pattern and in this race she should be able to get things her own way out in front. Hard to fault the way she’s going and she’s eachway. NUNES deadheat with her four starts ago and meets her 2.5kg better at the weights. From the inside draw Brad Parnham can follow her every move into the home straight. Honest filly who enjoys the run of the race. RARE ENCOUNTER has trialled up well for her new stable. Probably should have won a few more and looks ready to work her way through the grades this time in. PANDORA GIRL is still a maiden but is racing brilliantly at this level.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet – BLACK SPIRIT EACHWAY

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RACE 9

FEATHERWEIGHT has been a bit of a tease so far this campaign. Trialled super leading into his return when he got too far back and worked home down the centre. Second-up he enjoyed a nice run, the split came and he couldn’t quite pick them up. Third-up he savaged the line from an impossible position in ridiculously good closing sections. Senior back on, gate to work with and a race with a strong tempo. One more time. HINT OF MINT was one of the runs of the meeting at her return. She was the only horse to make any discernible ground late down the middle in a race dominated from the top. MAN CRUSH crossed last start and ran them ragged. He’ll look to repeat the dose here. ROKANORI isn’t racing at the same level of 12 months ago.

Numbers: 6 – 10 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – FEATHERWEIGHT WIN

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RACE 10

RUSTY DREAMS is an exciting filly. Her only defeat came over 1600m where she charged out in front and ran the first 1000m 15L faster than average bringing herself undone. She’s drawn a gate to bounce out and put herself in a commanding position. Looks like she’ll more than measure up at this level. REAR ADMIRAL suffered her first defeat last start when nothing went right. The two apprentice riders in front of her played jockeys and she was left a sitting duck. That race was 5L faster than average and somehow, she was still there with 100m to go. She’s the real deal. VAST ART comes back to 1400 from a mile. Only minor query. BONJOY has a big turn of foot.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – RUSTY DREAMS WIN

Same Race Multi – Rusty Dream (Top 3) + Vast Art (Top 3)

Rusty Dreams has won four from five and her only defeat was when she went far too quick out in front (15L faster than average first 1000m). 1400m looks her sweet spot at this stage of her career and she’ll park up over the speed and looks hard to get past. Vast Art can sit leaders back following either Rusty Dreams or Rear Admiral. Either way that’s an ideal spot in running for him. Both to finish in the money.

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RACE 11

COLOSSAL was incredible at his return to racing. He broke 33 seconds L600 and was savaging the line. He’s going to need a William Pike special to get over them from back in the field at 1000m but if conditions are allowing them to get home down the centre then it makes for an exciting final race. SWEAR TO GOD sat three and four deep first-up no trial in a forgive. Second-up he continued to push through inside of Kelvinator then tried to bully Rear Admiral out of the way. Senior on, drawn to sit and finally gets a suitable set up on paper. GHOST WHO WALKS is as honest and consistent as they come. DIVINE BELIEF won well last start but there’s a heap of speed drawn underneath her here. Much tougher.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – COLOSSAL WIN

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Quaddie (Race 8 – 11)

3,4,5,6,10

1,6,10

2,5,6,10

1,5,10,11,12

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