Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 22

Posted on August 16, 2018 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Richmond v Essendon, MCG, 5.50pm

Fresh off a demolition of Gold Coast, Richmond return to their MCG fortress looking to fine-tune their finals preparations with another victory. Essendon need a minor miracle to play in September, but importantly enter this match knowing their own fate is in their hands.

In saying that, they might need more than that to prevail. The Tigers will be bolstered by the return of Toby Nankervis, who had last weekend off to freshen up before the cut and thrust of the finals action gets under way. His presence ensures the Richmond midfielders walk that bit taller, although a key component of their running division, Kane Lambert, will be absent after having ankle surgery earlier in the week.

The Bombers withstood a challenge from St Kilda early last Friday night and then pulled away, despite losing key players during the course of the match. One of those was Orazio Fantasia, who strained a hamstring in the second half. Bombers insiders rave about his importance to the side and his absence will be felt.

VERDICT: Richmond by 29 points

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SATURDAY

Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG, 11.45am

In the face of mounting injuries, Collingwood still have designs on a top-four berth. That they are still in the conversation for a double chance is a great feather in the cap of coach Nathan Buckley and his players.

Buckley would no doubt have some empathy for the plight of Port Adelaide, who were on track for a critical win against West Coast last weekend before key injuries hit, most notably to Paddy Ryder and Charlie Dixon. Ryder said this week that he was an outside chance to get up from his hip flexor injury, but Dixon’s leg fracture ends his season — and Port’s in the eyes of many.

Brodie Grundy is very much in All-Australian contention and will fancy his chances of dominating a wounded Ryder or his likely replacement, first-gamer Billy Frampton. If Grundy does indeed go about his business, the Magpies midfield will fancy its chances of more than matching Port’s engine room, creating enough chances for their talented forwards. At the other end, it remains to be seen how the Power will function without Dixon.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 30 points

Geelong v Fremantle, GMHBA Stadium, 12.10pm

Geelong would clearly like to be inside the top eight at this stage of the season. That goes without saying. But Cats fans shouldn’t be too anxious because they will win their final two matches of the season — this contest against Fremantle and the round-23 encounter with Gold Coast.

The Cats’ midfield was criticised in the wake of last Saturday’s loss to Hawthorn, but the quality of their running division far outweighs what Fremantle can provide, even taking into account the continued excellence of Lachie Neale and David Mundy. Throw in the home-ground advantage and Fremantle’s woes on the road and it is difficult to predict anything other than a comfortable Geelong victory.

VERDICT: Geelong by 51 points

GWS v Sydney, Spotless Stadium, 2.35pm

There are a swag of quality players from both sides missing for this crucial clash, but those that are still fit and available for selection ensure this contest will be a cracker. The stakes demand as much. Greater Western Sydney are still an outside chance to finish second, while Sydney have yet to lock away their finals berth despite last Sunday’s victory over Melbourne.

The Giants will be without their premier midfielder Josh Kelly (concussion), but will still believe Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Jacob Hopper and Ryan Griffen can get the job done, especially if Rory Lobb is able to influence ruck contests like he did last weekend.

Sydney showed enormous mental strength to overcome Melbourne after the deflation surrounding Alex Johnson’s knee injury and need to be equally efficient here. Lance Franklin loves an occasion and will be eager to make a statement opposed to Phil Davis to lock away the Swans’ September berth. Davis won’t be able to call on his trusty lieutenant Heath Shaw (knee) in the back line, but there is still enough overall class for GWS to feel comfortable about their chances.

VERDICT: GWS by 16 points

Gold Coast v Brisbane, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

Gold Coast’s season was very much alive when they won a thriller after Cam Rayner missed a shot on goal as the siren sounded in the year’s first Q-Clash. The decline since then has been dramatic. Conversely, the Lions have gone from strength and strength and though the wins haven’t been as frequent as coach Chris Fagan would like, they are clearly on the right path.

Brisbane were outclassed by Collingwood last Saturday night, hours after the Suns were no match for Richmond at Metricon Stadium. The gulf however in competitiveness from the two Queensland teams was significant. Brisbane do the basics better than the Suns, hang in for longer in the course of games and their kids are exciting.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 24 points

St Kilda v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

There are two schools of thought swirling around St Kilda coach Alan Richardson. The most popular view, backed up the club’s head of football Simon Lethlean, is that the fifth-year mentor will see in a sixth season in 2019. In the other corner, there is nagging speculation that a bad finish to the year will see his tenure cut short.

After poor efforts opposed to the Western Bulldogs and Essendon in the past fortnight, Richardson needs a serious spike against Hawthorn, who have stormed up the ladder in recent weeks. Their effort to recover from a shaky first term and dispose of Geelong last weekend full of merit. The Hawks do the little things right and are getting an even contribution from everyone. The expected availability of captain Jarryd Roughead is another boost given Saints key defender Nathan Brown will miss through suspension.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points

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SUNDAY

Carlton v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

Carlton cannot wait for the season to end. The Western Bulldogs, entitled to feel exactly like that only a few weeks ago, are now wishing it could continue for some time yet. Fresh after their come-from-behind win over St Kilda, the Bulldogs rallied admirably to torpedo North Melbourne’s finals hopes in an entertaining match at Etihad Stadium last weekend.

Emboldened by Luke Beveridge’s urgings to take the game on and clearly benefiting from the return of illness of Marcus Bontempelli, the 2016 premiers look a completely different side to the one which battled for the most part of the year. Whereas the Bulldogs have found a solution to their goal-kicking woes, the Blues have not and that leaves them vulnerable against just about every opponent, as was evident last weekend against Fremantle.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 35 points

West Coast v Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 1.20pm

Melbourne’s hopes of playing finals for the first time since 2006 received a jolt last weekend when they lost to Sydney and were then dealt a hammer blow on Tuesday morning when it was confirmed power forward Jesse Hogan would miss the rest of the year with a foot injury.

The Demons now have to find a way to get over the top of either West Coast or Greater Western Sydney in the final fortnight minus Hogan, Jake Lever and Jack Viney — arguably three of their 5 most important players. The Eagles know what it’s like to have their backs against the wall, with their win over Port Adelaide last weekend in the absence of Nic Naitanui, Josh Kennedy and Andrew Gaff full of merit.

Adam Simpson’s side needs just one more victory to be assured of a top-two spot and a double chance and will appreciate being back at Optus Stadium where their slick ball movement and sturdy defence has been a feature all year. An issue for Melbourne is their inability to stop sides when they get a run on — a real concern when you factor in how freely West Coast are capable of scoring, especially at home.

VERDICT: West Coast by 19 points

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

Adelaide fans would have been expecting this game to be the perfect launch pad for their side to ready itself for finals. They are not alone. The Crows were widely tipped to be active in September, but their campaign never really took flight from the moment they visited the Gold Coast over summer for that controversial pre-season camp.

They front up here without skipper Taylor Walker following his two-game suspension and several other players who are clearly less than 100 per cent fit. That said, North Melbourne will be emotionally vulnerable after coughing up a must-win match opposed to the Western Bulldogs last weekend.

The inability of the Kangaroos’ midfield to put the clamps on the opposition’s best ball winners when Ben Jacobs is out of the line-up has been an issue all season and reared its head at a crucial stage again in round 21. Classy Crow Sam Jacobs had a rare off night against Rory Lobb last Saturday night and if he responds in his tussle with Todd Goldstein, the Crows’ running division will be awfully hard to curtail.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 30 points

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