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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 17

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 5.50pm

In a year riddled by controversy, injury and unexpected results, the news on Wednesday that Rory Sloane had re-signed for a further five years gave everyone associated with the club a lift. The Crows will be hoping that Sloane’s commitment can flow into this encounter as they look to keep alive their fading finals aspirations.

Adelaide sit two games and percentage outside the top eight and need to keep on winning to stay in the conversation. The Cats revived their own top-four hopes with an upset victory over Sydney last Thursday night and head back to SA seeking to avenge their two losses to the Crows last season, including the preliminary final.

A hallmark of Geelong’s win over Sydney was their frontal pressure and ability to take advantage of the Swans’ depleted midfield with a very deep running division of their own. Significantly, the Crows lob here on a second successive six-day break, a scenario clubs are extremely wary of.

VERDICT: Geelong by 11 points

FRIDAY

St Kilda v Carlton, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

Both clubs have been staunch in their belief this week that they are deserving of the opportunity to play on the Friday night stage, dismissing criticism of this fixture being allocated a prime-time slot. Let’s make it clear … they are in the minority.

The Saints have been better the past few weeks and though they came up short against Port Adelaide last weekend, their effort could not be questioned. The same doesn’t apply to Carlton, who were listless at the Gabba and copped their right whack, a 65-point belting from Brisbane. Unless the Blues can devise a different strategy when going forward to ease the burden on Charlie Curnow, another bad defeat is on the cards.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 30 points

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Brisbane, UTAS Stadium, 11.45am

A match that appeared to have elements of ho-hum about it as recently as late last month has suddenly become a contest of interest. Hawthorn put forward their top-eight claims with a dominant second-half display against the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night. However, the result was soured by ruckman Ben McEvoy sustaining a fractured cheekbone.

His absence means Jonathon Ceglar needs to step up and service his midfield straight away, no mean feat when you consider he runs headlong into Brisbane’s athletic and influential big man Stefan Martin, who had 22 disposals and 21 hit-outs in the win over Carlton.

The Lions are riding a rare two-game winning streak and will enter this match believing another victory is possible given the manner in which they dismantled Hawthorn earlier in the year. The Hawks will want to slow the game down and deny Brisbane possession, whereas the Lions will be eager to get on their bike and continue their offensive approach.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 24 points

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 2.35pm

Melbourne did what they had to do against Fremantle in Darwin last Saturday night and all indications are they will do exactly the same here opposed to the Western Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had been planning for Jack Macrae’s return from a hamstring strain from early in the week, but were rocked on Wednesday when it was revealed Marcus Bontempelli required surgery to have his appendix removed.

His absence denies coach Luke Beveridge of a key weapon to combat Melbourne’s vaunted midfield, which looms large when you factor in the dominance of premier ruckman Max Gawn. If the Demons take control of the midfield battle, the likes of Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald can wreak havoc in attack, just as they did earlier this year when the two teams met.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 29 points

Gold Coast v Essendon, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

Gold Coast cannot play finals, but will not finish last. Yet their plight remains one of a very serious nature in the back end of Stuart Dew’s first season at the helm. With Victorian clubs circling Tom Lynch and monitoring the contract situation of other quality Suns players, every week is critical to prove there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Essendon had their own finals hopes all but extinguished by Collingwood last Sunday. The Bombers were solid, but not good enough for long enough. However, a display anywhere near that level will be sufficient here. The absence of Jake Stringer hurts, but the form of Devon Smith, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Adam Saad continues to be encouraging.

VERDICT: Essendon by 39 points

GWS v Richmond, Spotless Stadium, 5.25pm

Nobody needs to tell GWS coach Leon Cameron that the margins in the AFL are minute. Despite their inaccuracy, the Giants hit the front in the last quarter against West Coast last Sunday and looked headed for a fifth successive win. However, the Eagles rallied and scraped home by 11 points, a result that left the Giants’ top-eight claims delicately poised.

They now need to pick themselves up and go again … against Richmond. The Tigers haven’t won an interstate game this season, but were quickly installed as favourites for this match, even taking into account some rare bad news on the injury front in the wake of the win against Adelaide.

Even without star forward trio Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Toby Greene, the Giants generated enough scoring shots against West Coast. Will they get the same amount of looks this week? GWS are more proficient than Richmond at the clearances, but the Tigers defend stoutly week after week thanks to Alex Rance and David Astbury, while Nick Vlastuin returns after a week’s suspension.

VERDICT: Richmond by 18 points

SUNDAY

Collingwood v West Coast, MCG, 11.10am

West Coast insist their record at the MCG is not a concern. Others may argue. What isn’t up for debate is the cold hard fact they haven’t been successful against Collingwood at the home of football since 1995.

And there is no denying the Eagles face a mighty task in trying to end that streak. The expected return of Jack Darling, along with Mark LeCras and Tom Barrass, is significant for the way Adam Simpson likes to structure up his side. His counterpart, Collingwood mentor Nathan Buckley, would also love to have access to some of his better players, but many of them are unavailable through injury.

Because of that, the manner in which Collingwood have climbed to second has been an outstanding achievement. The class of captain Scott Pendlebury late against Essendon was evident, while the continuing contributions of Brodie Grundy, Mason Cox and Jordan De Goey cannot be overlooked.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 17 points

North Melbourne v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 1.20pm

North Melbourne stunned Sydney earlier this year when they found a way to overcome the Swans at the SCG. It is one of four losses John Longmire’s side has suffered at their home ground and leaves them precariously placed entering the business end of the season.

The loss to Geelong last week was compounded by injuries to stalwarts Jarrad McVeigh (collarbone), Kieren Jack (knee) and Dan Hannebery (calf). But the Kangaroos aren’t without their own injury concerns. Jarrad Waite (calf) will miss again, while Mason Wood, the four-goal hero in the first meeting, is sidelined with a hamstring strain.

At their best, both sides defend very well. The Swans have come up short in recent weeks, their cause not helped by a lack of potency forward of centre. If North are able to break even in the midfield — and there is no reason why they shouldn’t — they might just be able to generate enough opportunities to snatch a critical four points.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 3 points

Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Port Adelaide recruited for the now at the end of last season and after some early hiccups, the tactic appears to be vindicated. The Power have quietly built an 11-4 win-loss record and look very much like a side worthy of finishing inside the top four.

They didn’t have a great experience in their initial outing at Optus Stadium this season, but with the benefit of that experience, a more settled line-up and a user-friendly opponent in Fremantle, should leave WA with an important win. The Dockers were slaughtered midfield by Melbourne last weekend, prompting Ross Lyon to do all he could to stem the bleeding by putting numbers behind the football.

Fremantle are missing a host of first-choice players and with a lot of youngsters being exposed to the rigours of the elite level, it is not entirely surprising to see the Dockers out of the finals equation.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 29 points

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