Races

Warren Huntly’s Melbourne Cup Day Preview

Posted on | Posted by Warren Huntly

Race 1

Plenty to learn but BLUE STRATUM has been particularly impressive at the jumpouts and looks hard to beat on debut. CATOGGIO was given a solid hitout in a recent trial and responded in good style. ODINSON is another to  look good at the jumpouts and should be strong late. ADMITTED was able to hold off DUBLIN DOWN last time and both have claims.

Selections: 4,5,7,1

Suggested Bet: Blue Stratum to win

Race 2

FORGOT YOU can hit a flat spot but he’s racing in good form and Blake Shinn knows his strengths and weaknesses. SIBAAQ has form through the same races as Forgot You and there probably won’t be much between them again. POUNDING gets blinkers back on, he was ok in a high pressure Toorak and may be looking for this trip now.

Selections: 4,3,1,6

Suggested Bet: Forgot You to win

Race 3

Good race but keen to be with AZTEC STATE. He hit the line strongly after being held up at a crucial stage last time and early in his career has shown the tactical versatility to offset the wide gate. WARMONGER broke his maiden in impressive style and appeals as one of the main dangers. QUEEN OF DRAGONS shapes as the other key hope, she stuck on well in a stronger race last start and should appreciate 1800m.

Selections: 2,10,7,4

Suggested Bet: Aztec State to win

Race 4

BARBER has jumped out well down the straight since arriving back in Melbourne and would be the one to beat on his best form. REVALENE is still a maiden but looked a touch unlucky behind a horse that contested the Coolmore last Saturday. JEWEL BAY has been consistent in her career to date and won well at her first run for the new stable. STANISLAUS has jumped out ok behind Coolmore winner Ozzmosis down the straight recently.

Selections: 1,8,4,3

Suggested Bet: Playing multiples around 1,8 & 4

Race 5

MR WATERVILLE looks the one to beat dropping back to BM96 level following his solid performance in the Geelong Cup. COMMANDO DRIFT closed off well in a key lead up race and looks suited at 2800m. KING’S CROSSING won that race, with GARACHICO close up and both have claims. LONG ARM will appreciate this trip on a spacious track. INSULATION had the race shape against him last start and gets blinkers first time.

Selections: 3,13,10,8

Suggested Bet: Mr Waterville to win

Race 6

PAPERBOY closed of well first up over 1200m and looks suited stepping up to 1400m. LOVE TAP won this race last year and had plenty against him from a wide draw first up over 1200m. MYSWEETMOSES ran on well over 1200m last start and is shaping as through 1400m will suit. FROST YOURSELF chased well behind a talented mare first up and is another that should appreciate stepping up to 1400m. GLINT OF SILVER has trialled ok since contesting a Group 3 race last start.

Selections: 7,1,12,10

Suggested Bet: Paperboy each way

Race 7

Strong edition of the Melbourne Cup but the key winning chances appear to stand out from the rest of the pack. VAUBAN is short enough, particularly for a Melbourne Cup, but he shapes as a highly promising stayer that has worked brilliantly at Flemington and seems attractively weighted for a horse with his upside. GOLD TRIP is proven at 3200m and appears to be going as well, if not better, than last year. BREAKUP did more than enough in a high pressure Caulfield Cup and looks better suited at 3200m on a spacious track. VOW AND DECLARE is a previous Cup winner and appears to be racing as well as ever. He covered extra ground the entire trip in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and was still there fighting out the finish. He shapes as a potential blowout chance at decent odds. WITHOUT A FIGHT won the high pressure Caulfield Cup second up. He should be further improved and Mark Zahra’s decision to ride him over Gold Trip could be a strong pointer to him running a strong 3200m now. If SOULCOMBE jumps reasonably that would enhance his already respectable chances.

Selections: 5,1,4,9

Suggested Bet: Playing multiples around 5,1,4,9,3 & 6

Strong edition of the Melbourne Cup but the key winning chances appear to stand out from the rest of the pack.

Best Bet: Vauban has been well found in the market, particularly for a Melbourne Cup, but he shapes as a highly promising stayer that has worked brilliantly at Flemington and seems attractively weighted for a horse with his upside.

Danger: Gold Trip is proven at 3200m and appears to be going as well, if not better, than last year.

Wildcard/Roughie: Vow and Declare is a previous Cup winner and appears to be racing as well as ever. He covered extra ground the entire trip in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and was still there fighting out the finish. He shapes as a potential blowout chance at decent odds.

Race 8

KIMOCHI has been competitive against the best Sydney fillies and has trialled well to drop back in trip on the fresh side. RIGHT TO PARTY closed of well over 1200m last time and should relish the rise to 1400m. FACILE is on trial this trip but has always indicated a good level of ability and will be better for her first run in this direction. COMMEMORATIVE is a big girl that had excuses first up and will appreciate 1400m on a spacious track.

Selections: 3,11,4,13

Suggested Bet: Kimochi to win

Race 9

MADAME POMMERY was one of a few unlucky runners in a key lead up race at Caulfield and the big field should help provide a tempo to offset the wide draw. CLIMBING STAR is racing well and chased an in-form galloper last start. SKEW WIFF is another that had no luck in the key lead up at Caulfield. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE is shaping as through 1400m will suit.

Selections: 1,12,2,8

Suggested Bet: Madame Pommery each way

Race 10

Tough finish. SUBSTANTIAL has form around Antino in Queensland and will strip fitter for his solid first up run. CHORLTON LANE has been racing in good form, he’s been freshened and jumped out nicely between runs. CHICAGO STORM never runs badly and maps for a good run. LAFARGUE got the right run but was able to capitalise in impressive fashion last start. DUBAI POET, RISE TO THE MASSES, ROBUSTO and TONNEOFGRIT have claims in a deep race.

Selections: 15,16,3,12

Suggested Bet: Substantial each way

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