Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

HARMIKA is drawn a little sticky but her 3 year old Plate form around Policiere, Red Fifty Three and Co looks very good for a maiden. Sat off them in a recent trial and think they will be forced to go back from the gate in this. Love the way she cruised through her gears and won the trial under a hold. With a few of the leading brigade suspect and vulnerable late in their races thinking she can sit back and zap them down the centre at her return. VRANYO is no star but first time back into a maiden (tick), drops 1kg in weight (tick), drawn a perfect gate (tick), takes natural fitness improvement second-up (tick) and has a new found versatility after sitting on the leaders fresh (tick). Can lead or box seat and gets her chance. CRITICAL ALTITUDE won’t be a maiden too much longer. Neville Parnham swaps the blinkers for visors and she’s knocking on the door. MISSILE was eye catching first-up when getting a long way back and charging through the line and through traffic.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – HARMIKA WIN

RACE 2

LA GALEXIA has been eye catching at her last few outings. Comes through the same maiden form references as Sessions Peak, Ocean Aura, Divine Noir, Needs Time and Best Testimony and while most eyes will be firmly planted on the luckless effort of Sessions Peak thought the filly on her back was just as stiff when struggling to get through. Senior rider on and better price. SESSIONS PEAK is bursting to win a race. No luck last start and brave on speed at the previous couple. Expecting Peter Knuckey to try and take luck out of the equation and roll to the top. OCEAN AURA will be better for the first attempt at the distance and has a set of shades added. LAUTRE is going along well and Shaun McGruddy is flying.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet – LA GALEXIA EACHWAY

RACE 3

DARCELE won’t get much airtime when it comes to previews of this staying event but thought her last start effort was far better than it reads on paper. Was only third-up and was in a 60+ Graduation. Looked to be travelling really nicely toward the back of the field and then got chopped out for clear running turning for home and on straightening. Got going late and now fourth-up, back in grade and reuniting with Shaun O’Donnell who she seems to run for, she could be a big improver at big odds. CAFÉ NERA won well last start under Clint Johnston-Porter. He is replaced with a claiming apprentice meaning that the mare stays at the exact same weight in the same grade and meets many key rivals better at the weights for beating them home. On paper looks very hard to toss. BELFONTE BOY was much better last start. DIPLOMAT EXPRESS is suited to this grade.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – DARCELE EACHWAY

RACE 4

COBBANCO is a little ripper for Brian Lucas. The day he broke his maiden he won by a length and that was after trying to buck in the early stages, he then picked up a 3yo 0MWLY in a 4 horse field when held up until the last few strides before getting through and picking them up and then off a 7 week freshen up he went back to 1000m and was too strong for them. After the claim he drops 1kg, he is better suited at 1200 than he was when winning last start in a 1000m scamper and he looks hard to beat. NO DICE showed that her maiden win was as good as it looked to the eye when matching motors with State of Power for the entire straight in a C1. Maps a treat and going super. GORGEOUS GOSSIP ran second in the 3 year old Magic Millions (Restricted Listed) last start. If she reproduces that run she goes awfully close in a midweeker. GAMBLER’S GOLD is going well.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – COBBANCO WIN

RACE 5

GUARD THE SAFE was relatively plain to the eye last start but willing to make an excuse for him and follow up here. Was sitting in a lovely spot in the early and middle stages before all of a sudden Lucy Warwick had nowhere to go and he was left searching for a run when the rest were building momentum down the outside. Thought he got to the line well enough and for a momentum type of horse he was a pass mark. With Shaun McGruddy humming and his riding style to put horses into the race sooner rather than later going to butter up and go again. RELIABLE CHOICE looks the testing material. Given a 55 day freshen after her dominant maiden victory and put the writing on the wall on debut when doing it tough and still finishing only three quarters off sharp filly Playz With Fire. She gets a soft run and likely bursts through gaps late. DAZZLING DANE showed great promise on debut and then back it up defying a remarkably aggressive drift at start number two. O’LARAS PRINCE didn’t get any luck last start. Forgive and forget.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – GUARD THE SAFE WIN

RACE 6

ARCADIA GRACE will divide opinions, especially between punters who have been following the filly since her exciting debut. Went around $3.20 in the 3 year old Classic, went around $3.90 in the Belgravia and then resumed in a 3 year old 0MWLY at 1300m and went around $1.65. She has had excuses here and there but this is D-Day for her from a punter’s viewpoint. She drops into a C1 and comes back to 1200m. If she can’t win this then she’s not going to make it to any of the heights she promised on debut. GORGEOUS GUS won fresh last campaign and maps well here. GINGER SENORITA can bounce on the lead. WUNDERKIND went well for Luke Campbell last start.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 6 -11

Suggested Bet – ARCADIA GRACE WIN

RACE 7

ZOUDINI backs up for the third straight time meaning he ran on the 26th Jan, 2nd Feb, 9th Feb and now 16th Feb, that’s four runs in 21 days and you start to wonder how many times can you go to the well with the same horse and get the same run out of them. Undeniably huge last weekend at an unsuitable trip but can he keep producing? If you’re happy to back in Lindsey Smith’s operation then this looks a great race for him to zap them late. PEPPER ASSAULT rises 6kg from her first-up run but is drawn far better and maps far better here second-up. SICHERN absolutely bolted in a maiden first-up and the form has held up through Rulelee. SHEIKH IT has trialled well a few times for new trainer Bruce Kay.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – ZOUDINI WIN

RACE 8

PHONEME is well placed and well suited to racing in this grade. Dropped into this grade of racing last start after competing in higher at his last 14 outings in Western Australia including recording a 66+ win and three placings in 72+ grade. Was beaten by Great Charade by a length last start and meets him 1.5kg better. Drawn a gate where he can settle rearward and work his way into the race. Wasn’t able to get moving when he wanted last start and can bounce back here and turn the tables. AL MAGICO had been racing well over unsuitably short distances leading into last start. Ran out of his skin and should find the fence and lead here. Hard to run down. GREAT CHARADE can be a hard horse to catch and generally wins his races when he is able to work into it. Not convinced barrier 1 helps him at all. HE’S A LUCKY LAD has been freshened to likely work his way through the grades and see if he could be a Derby horse.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – PHONEME EACHWAY

RACE 9

KOHLI was the target of monumental money last start. Opened up $5.50 and by the time they jumped there were takers at even money. Never travelled like the winner at any stage and had bookies doing backflips as he finished in fourth. Gets another 250m here, drops in grade from a 0MWLY into a C3 and where there’s smoke there’s fire. Following the money trail and following Kohli. HOOLAHOOPS was some sort of win last start at Albany. Watch the replay and then convince yourself she’s a live chance. FIRE GODDESS is probably better suited in the country and provincial areas in ratings races, however, from the great barrier she gets a chance in town. GROUND BRAKER was a much improved effort last start to score.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – KOHLI WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

5,8,9
2,3,8
1,2,4,5
1,3,5,6,7,10,11

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