Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

THOMAS MAGNUM can extend the powerful recent run of Chris and Michael Gangemi. Looked to have a big hand in the Melbourne Cup Day meeting and left with two impressive winners in Go Forward and Mercanto. Stable ticking over really well and this youngster looks to have huge upside and ability. Trialled nicely under a hold throughout from Brad Parnham and from the draw can sit in behind and watch the fireworks behind Dance Session and Spiced Delight. Just needs to stay in touch throughout. SPICED DELIGHT has some strong form to her name from her 3 year old days. Likely to breeze outside the speedster. DANCE SESSION runs a blistering 900m. Paddles worse than #Merv late. JALINDA BAY should get a nice run.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – THOMAS MAGNUM WIN

RACE 2

HE’SGOTWINGS put the writing on the wall on debut. Was a solid trial when leading throughout and skipping clear to win soft under McGruddy at Belmont and then at Northam on debut met with huge late betting support when going down to a handy mare in Dais. Did it tough on debut and kept coming late. Looks like 1400m will suit and is a horse worth following. SNIP OF GLORY is going to need luck from that barrier and the race to unfold in her favour. The two efforts to date have been excellent. CATALPA should enjoy the run of the race along the fence for Chris Parnham. FLOWER IN THE WIND is better than what she showed first-up. Willing to forgive and forget.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet – HE’SGOTWINGS WIN

RACE 3

MARKET STRYKE only needs to reproduce his debut performance to be awfully hard to beat here. Sat in the breeze in a maiden race where they went 2.5L faster than average overall and went down in the shadows to Success Play. He has since won a 3 year old 0MWLY 1600 and goes to the Fairetha Stakes on Saturday. Rolling forward from the wide gate to the breeze again looks the most likely scenario on paper. PRAY AGAIN can settle close handy in behind the leaders and won’t have to do any work early unlike Market Stryke. Looks the logical danger. ELUSIVE DREAM has been hit and miss in three runs to date. One very good, two very bad. WESTRIVER MIRACLE brings intrigue from the trials.

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 13 – 8

Suggested Bet – MARKET STRYKE WIN

RACE 4

ALMAHER MAN takes on the older horses and steps out sharply in trip from 1100m to 1650. Considering he lead them up in an 1100m recently he should be able to park just off likely leader and main danger Kolchino in running and keep him within his sights. Showed as a 2 year old that he will get ground and thought his return to racing as well as his recent trial was solid. KOLCHINO looks the testing material. Has done nothing wrong and looks one another Maschino front runner who will find his rhythm and be hard to run down. LADY OF BABYLON may be looking for further but she’s got ability there. AZTEC GOLD gets a soft run along the fence.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet – ALMAHER MAN EACHWAY

RACE 5

ANTIQUE JEWEL has her third attempt at a staying trip and simply looks ready to break through. As we witness (again) last Thursday at Northam through Dark Lass the Peters Investment gallopers get better with distance, the opposition get weaker and the Wizard simply outrides them 9 times out of 10. Not a big fan of this mare but she should be going close in this. CIRCLE THE SUN was beaten a nose in a C3 7 day ago. Drops 2kg in weight, comes back in grade and looks the danger. Big opportunity for Jett Stanley to start booking himself more metro and provincial rides. DANCE OF THE SOUTH caught the eye. Keep safe at odds. DANCING JACK has been savaging the line for over a month. Just needs something to take him into the race.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – ANTIQUE JEWEL WIN

RACE 6

WAR WARRIOR looks well placed to score. Danny Morton’s yard is on fire and this 4 year old showed when last in work that he has the ability to go through the grades and win a few more. Last time out at 1400m finished fourth but behind Bragwell, Tri For Us and Perfect Gem. Handy form for a C1 and the trial was really nice. BOURBON BEAU raced in higher grade over winter and was the target of smart money on a number of occasions. Sneaks back into a C1 and expecting the money to flow again. ELLIE’N’PINK has her first start for Brian Rogers. Can get them to go fresh and Chris Graham has had a great few weeks in the saddle. DON’T ARGUE BUSTER gets the right run leader’s back.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – WAR WARRIOR WIN

RACE 7

VANE TEMPEST should enjoy the sweetest of runs in transit for Holly Watson. With Captain Kink in the race it looks on paper like the mare will end up leader’s back in a fast run 1200m. From there it’s simply a case of picking the right time to peel off the leader’s back and put the classy mare into the mix. Winner of 5 from 12 and the last time she was in this grade (60+) she went around $2.30 on a Saturday. CAPTAIN KINK is extremely well placed again by Brett Pope and the use of the Taj Dyson 4kg claim brings him down to a winnable weight. STORM COMMANDER will get the drop on the two apprentices and if they overcook it, he’ll be the one stalking. ISLAND MISSILE will be further back and making a late run at them.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet – VANE TEMPEST WIN

RACE 8

SAFETY FUSE looks well suited in this event. Went from a maiden win into a C3 last time out and worked hard throughout chasing a strong tempo throughout. Was left a sitting duck and was gunned down by the likes of Treasured Star, Ghost Who Walks, Pick Your Battles and Storm Commander. C3 back into a C1, senior rider back aboard, stable flying, hoop flying, ticks a lot of boxes. BELLE’S FANTASY ran them along last start and kept fighting late in the race. Going well. ROCK HARD OMARU is likely a forgotten horse in the race. Actually going quite well since joining Kirsten Melis. TALK IT UP has X-Factor but a big weight and a wide gate.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – SAFETY FUSE WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,3,4,5,6,8,9
2,8
1,2,10
2,5,7,8,11

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