Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DESIGNATED DRINKER is a 5 year old having only his second career start, first-up no trial at 1400m off 323 days. On paper there are a lot of risks but this is a Carnarvon maiden where many of them have more convictions than him. Blinkers are on, Simone Altieri is on and from how he looked in the yard last year on Cup Day and the way he stuck on it seemed like he had some ability. NERO CHIN CHIN has been beaten at $2.50, $2.65, $4.50, $1.40 and $4.00 at his last five outings. Continues to go close but finds one better each time. POPPIES is having her 34th start in a race. Clearly racing well this preparation but has had her chances. DERULES was probably in the worst part of the track first-up so the run was fair.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet – DESIGNATED DRINKER WIN

RACE 2

SWEET TALKIN was able to run down Premio Momento last start and only has to concede him an extra kilo for the victory. Drawn to settle just off the speed and keep her two dangers within striking distance (Premio Momento and Redeem Bounty) who are likely to be the two horses settling in front of her. Hard to hold out. PREMIO MOMENTO and REDEEM BOUNTY are both capable front runners who will take running down. KNUCKLE DOWN was a shade disappointing last start when beaten 10+L but the previous efforts were all very good.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet – SWEET TALKIN WIN

RACE 3

CHEVAL DE VAGA had a start 11 days at Belmont Park when running fourth behind talented 3 year olds Excellent Dream and Weaponson, with third going to Nobelium who has been competitive in 60+ Graduations. Has gate speed and with the blinkers going on provided Jess Gray doesn’t get crossed in the early stages gets a wonderful opportunity to score her first win back. VIOTTI had great NT form to his name and looks an astute acquisition for Sean Rains. Can settle right over the speed and loves the dirt. STRIDE OUT and BEHROOZ will both be looking to also take up positions in a fairly strong 56+.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – CHEVAL DE VAGA WIN

RACE 4

CARMURLEA only won a maiden last start but it was in slick time. That race was 6L faster than maiden average and the horses who finished second and third behind her ran the quinella at their next outing. Draws inside so will rely on a clean get away but with Hannah Fitzgerald’s 4kg claim looks winnable. KING OF PLANETS and TWO COOL ran second and third respectively behind Catching Shadows and while the winner was 100-1 it should actually prove a fairly respectable form reference based on the sections. VITAL TOUCH has her first start for a new stable and first start on the dirt. Talented enough type so if she handles the conditions she can definitely win.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – CARMURLEA WIN

RACE 5

THE CHORISTER (like many of Ray Malpass’ horses) is absolutely flying. Winner at his last three with his most recent his best. Won by 1.5L when wide throughout and did a few things wrong in the straight but was able to beat Jelani Express. That was a 68+, this is a 64+ so while he goes up 4kg he effectively comes back in grade. Should park on or near the speed and see no reason why his winning ways won’t continue just like Madrid Centro and Danefin. BIG BLOWS was eating dust last start when second behind Danefin but some 12L off him. Comes back in distance which is a minor query but he is a talent. LUCKY CHARLIE and RHINO BUSTER can fight out minors.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – THE CHORISTER WIN & 6 – 4 QUINELLA

RACE 6

JUPITERS SUN and Hannah Fitzgerald are getting alone exceptionally well. Draws the outside gate in a mammoth field but should have sufficient gate speed to get himself across and join the three wide train. Often in dirt racing and particularly this season at Carnarvon being deep the trip is actually a good thing so no worries about the draw and he was luckless last start. REUCOOP got out to an incredible price last start when saluting. Won by 9L and if he reproduces that performance he’ll clearly take a stack of beating. ARGOON is honest and consistent. BALRANTO can bob up from time to time and should go close to finding the breeze if she jumps cleanly.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 1 – 13

Suggested Bet – JUPITERS SUN WIN

RACE 7

MACAVITY was huge last start. The form behind Madrid Centro has been the barometer at Carnarvon all season and he was a big run to get within 1.5L of him. If he continues to step out in trip he’ll loom as a blow out hope for the Cup and he is another great ride for young Hannah Fitzgerald. STILL AWAKE looked a moral last start and duly saluted. This is tougher but she should be the kind of mare to go through the grades. GLEN ALBYN uncharacteristically bombed the start at his most recent when heavily commissioned. Keep safe. JENABEL is always a winning chance in this grade.

Numbers: 6 – 10 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet – MACAVITY WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

3,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

4,6

2,11

3,5,6,9,10,12

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