Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

OHSUMI should be able to kick through from the inside draw and hold out the speed drawn wide. If there is an abundance of pressure then Pateman can take the box seat run. Jason Pateman’s yard is firing on all cylinders at the moment and he should only improve off what he did first-up no trial. UNCANNY TIMING has gone under a beaten favourite at each of his last four starts since joining Colin Webster’s team. Clearly has ability and from the draw should enjoy a sweet run just behind the speed. TROODLES brings East Coast form and speed to the race. NURHACI trialled very well but the draw makes things a bit tougher.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet – OHSUMI WIN

RACE 2

PLETTO got tongues wagging at the trials heading into this preparation with a strong finishing burst behind Great Heist and Misty Metal. Couldn’t have done any more first up when three and four deep the trip without cover in a hot form race (Dark Mission, Lil Red Bikini and Showzali all winners since). Was accordingly backed off the map last start and duly saluted. Yet to miss the money from 7, versatile mare who can race on and off speed and looks like going right through the grades. SEA WAR was thrown in the deep end last preparation behind Resortman, Captain Kink and Platinum Bullet. His Albany wins were arrogant. DON’S LEGACY gets his chance to lead and roll from the inside. BEDOUIN BELLE maps to get a lovely run again.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – PLETTO WIN

RACE 3

BILLY AIN’T SILLY vs QUEEN BROWN is a nice little match race on paper. In the end the draw for BILLY AIN’T SILLY gives him an ever so slight advantage. Was big on debut when finishing third to All Day Session and Born to Rule, beating home subsequent winners Bumper Humper and Madam Torio. Was one of the most bizarre drifts in WA history last start when appearing a moral on paper and drifting from $1.50 out to $3.20. Big victory for those who don’t believe in #theyknow conspiracies. QUEEN BROWN was a dominant victor last start when the shades went on and Champagne Diva made the form look good on Wednesday. CASTILLO DEL LAGO has been racing the older horses with success and should lead. SURVEILLANCE building but looking fairly one paced.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – BILLY AIN’T SILLY WIN

RACE 4

WRINKLY is actually very well suited by these new 78+ $100k feature races with a top weight cap of 62kg. He is a m98 now and should be carrying 64kg in a fair handicap. Gets 2.5kg on stablemate Jeraft for beating him home last start and the way he is racing he’ll relish another dog fight in the home straight. Extremely hard to get past and then fights back. Hard not to like him here. MASSIMO has been a great money earner for connections and stiff not to win 3 or 4 races in the preparation. Likely to get the trail behind the speed and will again loom the winner but isn’t exactly the kind of horse you dive into $1.80 about. JERAFT has hit form, backs up off 7 days and will have last crack at them. WESTERN TEMPLE has always had ability but a few issues. New stable, new environment, keep safe.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – WRINKLY EACHWAY

RACE 5

FUHRER only comes out of a 3 year old 0MWLY midweeker at his most recent but he carried 61.5kg like it was a feather weight, smashed the clock (5L faster than average) and was eased down to the line. He is capable of sitting outside of Majinika and grinding him into the ground. Talented animal who will win plenty of races. BLACK SHADOW has been building into the campaign and should settle far closer to the speed now that he has drawn a gate. PRINCE TURBO has been every bit as impressive as Black Shadow at their two meetings this campaign and with the blinkers back on looks primed to peak. GUNNAGO loses Pateman and that hurts his chances big time.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – FUHRER WIN

RACE 6

DOUBLE BUBBLE was completely unsuited last start at 1000m from an impossible draw. That is a strong form race (Long Beach, Silkinize, Danny George, Shinju, Why Choose Her) and her previous effort was super behind Long Beach, Nerodio and Indian Pacific. Gets 2.5kg on Nerodio from that outing and gets a rare opportunity to find the fence. If she crosses she’ll run a big race at a price. NERODIO is a month between runs but he is a classy commodity. From the draw he can position closer and has a big turn of foot under him. LEADING GIRL is hard to knock on form but there is always an element of unknown with horses resuming off more than 400 days. From 3 back the fence she’ll launch late. REGAL COUNSEL won in this grade first-up last preparation. Not convinced he’s an apprentice’s horse.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – DOUBLE BUBBLE EACHWAY

RACE 7

WE’VE GOT DREAMS and MONEY MATTERS are both very handy 4 year olds. WE’VE GOT DREAMS is one of the fastest beginners in WA and Kyra Yuill should be able to cross down to the fence ahead of Arafura. If she does find the top she always takes running down. MONEY MATTERS is a dual stakes winning 3 year old returning off the back of a super impressive trial. Not known as a 1000m horse but he looks to have come back bigger and better. UNDISCLOSED didn’t fire a solitary shot first-up but Monday’s trial was far better than her previous one. ARAFURA hasn’t won for a long time and races well outside the handicap but her last two have both been strong.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet – WE’VE GOT DREAMS WIN

RACE 8

TIFF HAS SPOKEN finished his 3 year old season in super form. Two starts ago ran fourth behind Captain Kink, Puckapunyal and Silkinize. They have all won races since. Last time out ran second to Captain Kink and beat home Levitate. Not a great deal of speed in this race and Alan Kennedy should be able to hold a position in the run. Going very well. PLAYING MARIKA can be a little bit hard to catch but from the draw she should slot in midfield and has a powerful turn of foot on her day. CHESTEN FLYER backs up off 7 days, drops in grade and has been knocking on the door. DEVOTED STAR can be forgiven for one poor run.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – TIFF HAS SPOKEN EACHWAY

RACE 9

QUEEN TAKES KING, AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT and SOWAR all come from the same midweek C3. They are all lightly raced, they are all progressive and they should hold a mortgage over this race between them. Happy putting all the eggs in one basket and identify that as the clear form reference race. QUEEN TAKES KING is likely to enjoy a similar run in transit to last start and is getting better and better with racing. AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT was first-up at a staying trip after over 400 days away from the track. Enormous effort to do what he did. SOWAR is flying but just can’t draw a gate to hold a position. Wins a staying race very soon. BONNEVILLE BLACK gets big weight on those three but needs luck.

Nubbmbers: 3 – 6 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet – QUEEN TAKES KING WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,9
5,6
4,5,6,7,8,9
3,4,6

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