Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SNITZALATTE won impressively on debut in a maiden at ascot and took that form straight to a Saturday when winning by 1.5L. Following those two soft wins she progressed to the Karrakatta Plate finishing third behind Talkanco and Just Too Fly before finishing less than a length off them in the Sires Produce. First-up, no trial, stalks the speed and looks really well suited. FIERY SPARK isn’t ultimately a 1000m horse but he’s an exciting prospect for the 3 year old features over the carnival. Have lots of time for him. SPICY THANG may not have the level of ability of a few rivals but has only 51.5kg and is a leader at the Belmont 1000. PLAYINIT SWEET kept improving with every run in her initial prep.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – SNITZALATTE WIN

RACE 2

BLACK ORA won a 3-year-old midweeker first-up, no trial over 1200m at Pinjarra off a 95 day freshen back in April and then won a 3 year old Saturday beating Niccimota and Keep Ita Mystery. She’ll get back and that’s a serious concern, but she’s got gears and this race looks like it has too much speed. NICCIMOTA showed a glimmer of versatility last start when breezing off the back of a hot speed set by Prince Amongst Men and just (just) held on. She’s very vulnerable late. MANTUA trialled well at Lark Hill and looks an ideal box seat horse in a high speed race. PAINT IT RED will also be right up in the firing line and will be fitter second-up.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – BLACK ORA WIN

RACE 3

HYMNS OF ELADDAIR won first-up last preparation at 1100m and if his trial is anything to go by, he’ll be finishing off hard late. In that trial he bolted up to them under a hold and went straight on by and this looks a suitable set up to stalk the speed and present late. MY HIDDEN UNIVERSE is the class runner but he does have 61.5kg in a race where there’s horses like Bartime and Diego Dynamite drawn underneath him who will make him work for the lead. GOLD FLAKES is a Saturday winning 2yo and has some nice 3yo Saturday form from last prep. GO GO GROMMET is bursting to win a race.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – HYMNS OF ELADDAIR WIN

RACE 4

KAY TEE WHY is yet another Adam Durrant / William Pike first-up, no trial sprinter and going off the way he let rip in a 1000m 3 year old event at Ascot back in March, and then again off a 49 day freshen a few months later, expect he’ll be very hard to hold out late but still wary of getting too involved in horses who settle back-half over the short course. SILVER EYE could not have been more impressive first-up when not only matching motors with Immortal Bliss but putting him away in the last 50m. GINNIVAN drops back into a ratings race and will burn across with Norich.  GHOST WHO WALKS is a Belmont 1000m specialist.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – KAY TEE WHY WIN

RACE 5

COSMIC CRUSADER got the entirety of WA talking Ascot Summer Carnival last weekend with his booming return against 72+ opposition. Sectionally they almost handed him the race, with the first 800m run 3L slower than average while they sorted out positions in running and ultimately the rider who showed the most initiative (on a leaders day?!) was rewarded. He’s a really exciting animal and looks capable of going on a winning spree. SENSESSIONAL gives 110% but he’s going to have to conceded 4.5kg to a horse with more upside and raw ability than him. SISU WARRIOR drops 6kg and could roll forward in a race without speed. KAPTAIN KAOS has turned back the clock.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – COSMIC CRUSADER WIN

Same Race Multi – Cosmic Crusader (Win) + Sensessional (Top 2) + Kaptain Kaos (Top 4)

Going to have to be aggressive to get any sort of price in the Tabtouch Stakes SRM. Cosmic Crusader has been installed on the second line of betting in the Railway Stakes and based off what he produced last week, expect he’ll be continuing on his winning ways. Sensessional chases a hattrick and does no work, lock them in for the exacta and add Kaptain Kaos who is flying Top 4.

RACE 6

NINE BALL is looking to progress from a maiden to a C3 to a 60+ Graduation but expect that she more than measures up. Her point to point acceleration to burst through the pack last start was visually outstanding and sectionally she clocked the fastest L600, 400 & 200m splits of the race. BE BARDOT could not have done any more first-up last campaign at 1200m under 59kg when she conceded them a massive head start and grew wings late. Like the 1400m as a kick off point for her but was scratched on 6 September when unsound. KIRALUI is no star but she tries hard. GAGE ROADS an improver in a race he can lead.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – NINE BALL WIN

RACE 7

DOCTOR JAY won well last start at 1400m and with Essentric Nature coming out last week and winning a 66+ the form looks even stronger. Love the way he ran through the line and with a few spruik horses in this line-up he’ll go around eachway. Looks progressive. TWILIGHT TALE wasn’t suited in a sit and sprint first-up and then savaged the line second-up. She’ll be winding up in the three deep line making a sustained move from the 600. SHMOOVA has been beaten at $1.90, $2.50 & $2.70 this prep. There’s a school of thought that he isn’t handling the wet tracks and now add that to the fact he’s racing over 1650m for the first time in his career, with 60kg, he has to be some query? ODINAKA can sit close handy and enjoy the run of the race.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – DOCTOR JAY EACHWAY

RACE 8

KING ADVISO is a new horse this campaign. He’s won three from four and his only defeat came at the hands of Desert Nymph and Shmoov Moova in a 72+. He’s a last start 72+ winner dropping back in grade into a 66+ and he’s smashing the clock. He should comfortably cross these and then the speed horses around him are the likes of Canny Rock (~40-1), Exceltrain (~30-1), Our Rocky Bay (~30-1) and Snow Prince (~17-1). Can kick for home at the top of the straight and look to hold off the swoopers. IMMORTAL BLISS steps to 1200m and has shown a big turn of foot since arriving in WA. He’s a big threat late. DEFERRED is a much better mare with cover and now has shades. ELITEONE was huge last week.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet – KING ADVISO EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

5

1,3,5,6,7,9

1,4,7,10

3,5

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