Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

GLASGOW GIRL made a mess of them on debut when backed from $4.60 into $2.60. Since then she has had a large percentage of her ownership taken up by Yu Long Investments and now returns off the back of two solid trial performances. Looks like she’ll land one out and one back and from there she’s a live chance of remaining undefeated. TIMELESS GEM had to pull out plenty at Pinjarra to win first-up after being forced to park three deep the trip without cover. He’ll likely look for the breeze again. AREDUET is racing consistently well. LANO won well on debut but does come back in distance here.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – GLASGOW GIRL WIN

RACE 2

BAYEZID is a very tough animal to run down over 1000m when he is able to find the fence and dictate. He bolted in first-up over 1000 with 58.5kg, he was there until the 200m marker second-up and then has gone to a Beaufine Stakes (missed the kick) and sat three deep in a 66+ behind Songaa and subsequent 72+ winner Ginnivan. Looks the right form, looks the right map. UNDER INFLUENCE is a get back sprinter. The smaller field suits him and he’ll be winding up powerfully late. Comes through the same form reference. BONNIE LAD is a sharp sprinting type who will look for late splits. THINK OF GOD is lightly raced and more than capable.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BAYEZID WIN

RACE 3

ADVANCED is bursting to win a race. Unsuccessfully plunged last start ($7 into $2.60) and attacked the line well. Versatile, loves the wet tracks, has a senior rider on and goes around eachway. Open race without a standout and he’s in great form. LOVA SESSION has now run 9 second placings. She continues to loom the winner without going past them. Interestingly her only victory was the last time blinkers were added. CRUISE TO VICTORY might be better suited back in distance to 1400. KING CARTEL won well on Wednesday under 60kg. Will be re-handicapped to 59.5kg Saturday if he backs up off 3 days.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – ADVANCED EACHWAY

RACE 4

TOROPA is one of the most exciting animal on the program at Belmont on Saturday as she attempts to remain undefeated and go 4 from 4. Vern Brockman is stepping her comfortably through the grades: C1, C3 and now a 0MWLY. She drops 1.5kg in weight and maps to get a lovely run parked in behind a genuine tempo (Military Power/Border Force/Hibiscus Lady). Expect she’ll safely cover these. GALAXY AFFAIR is worth consideration as a big improver. Pike goes on (obvious) but his recent runs from shocking barriers in 66+ company haven’t been too bad either. BORDER FORCED hadn’t raced for 523 days and tried hard behind an in form mare. CANNY ROCK was super last start out of a maiden win.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet – TOROPA WIN

RACE 5 

TRIPLE JAY is building a nice winning record and emerging as a Stakes level proposition over the Summer Carnival. He maps to get the same run as his last two starts outside the likely leader in Multinational and from there he looks very hard to get past. Brad Parnham is 2/2 aboard him and this race looks really suitable for him to go 3/3. MULTINATIONAL should work his way to the top and as we’ve seen in this preparation when he’s able to get it cheap early he’ll kick hard into the corner. UPPER LIMITS and CORN COB both resumed in excellent order behind a highly talented sprinter in Stormchaser.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – TRIPLE JAY WIN

Same Race Multi – Triple Jay (Win) + Multinational (Top 3)

Pretty keen on Triple Jay taking out the 2024 Jockey Celebration Day Stakes. He has won his last two starts impressively from outside the leader, maps to either park up outside the leader again or roll on with it and control the race. Great set up for him with the in form Bradley Parnham aboard. Multinational is the other speed horse in the race and should kick hard.

RACE 6

IOWA and XTRAREVS are the newcomers to the State and bring alternate form. Thinking that’s the best form and profile for this moderate staying event. IOWA sat leader’s back in a 72+ 1600 and held his own late and through the line. Rolls straight to the top and looks to out grind rivals while XTRAREVS worked to the line well last weekend in a slowly run race behind Ginger Green. He has backed up off 7 days up previously once in his life at Kembla Grange and came out victorious. Most suitable race for both since their arrival in WA. EMERALD TRADER is always an X-Factor runner. STRIKE NOW is trying hard.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – IOWA WIN

RACE 7

SONOFTHEBOSS is a newly turned 4 year old and you know what you’ll get with him. He’s a proven weight carrier, he’s a proven winner and he’s still getting better. Can either lead or take a sit on speedy mare Universal Flair. Either way he’ll enjoy the right run at the right price. SILVER EYE ran a strong second behind emerging mare Deferred with 60kg last start in a high-speed race. Be shocked if he wasn’t the big market mover dropping 5.5kg down to the limit. ANGEL UNDERCOVER ran really well fresh against the pattern. UNIVERSAL FLAIR was enormous at her return when working hard out deep throughout.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – SONOFTHEBOSS WIN

Race 8

GREAT DEMON was a ‘be on me next start’ run at his return to racing. It was a day at Belmont where it was extremely difficult to make ground and unsurprisingly the first three horses around the corner filled the trifecta. He was one of very few gallopers to make any late ground. Like this set up for him. COVERT ROSE has returned in outstanding order. Dominant winner first-up and second-up at the provincials and finds a 60+ Graduation that doesn’t look any tougher. ALBERICH looks just about ready to win. Maps well and has a senior rider on. SPECIAL SORT races on Thursday at Pinjarra. He is a winner off 3 days previously so he may still back-up.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – GREAT DEMON WIN

RACE 9

TOO DARDY only needs to reproduce his first-up, second-up or third-up runs to be winning this. Back in grade – tick, Shaun O’Donnell back – tick, drawn to settle closer – tick. They’ll roll along, he’ll land into a winnable position and this looks an excellent choice of race by Justine Erkelens. SAVAGE ONE has raced in higher grade his last 6 outings and the last time he backed up off 7 days he finished a neck off Dance Boss. Big respect at odds. WESTRIVER MIRACLE runs for Chris Parnham and should land in the right spot. DEAMBER is a model of consistency.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,5

1,3,7,8,11

4,5

1,2

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