Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Scott Embry’s Preview

Race 1

STARFIELD IMPACT arguably could have been 3 from 3 undefeated. Lead on debut and was swamped in the last stride to go down a head into fourth. Worked hard at her second start when fading into second and then broke through last start when finding the top quite comfortably in the Crystal Slipper. Backing 2yo favourites is fraught with danger but she should get punters off to a flyer. CHOICE BID travelled boldly in the same race and can improve with race experience. WINSALOT looked to have ability in a 400 jump out at Bunbury. CHICK FLIX travelled well in the Lark Hill trial but was looking for the line.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet – STARFIELD IMPACT WIN

Race 2

THIS’LL TESTYA trialed like a beast when sitting in the breeze and romping home by 6L under 60+kg of Mitch Pateman in 55.45 and then took that to the races when winning with her eyes closed. Figures she returned were ~3.5L above average and she should measure up in town. SILKINIZE sat off them in a fast run race behind Massimo and Ziebell and was huge. The faster they go the better for him. DRIFTSTAR showed a little bit of grit last weekend. Would make things interesting if he held the favourite out but likely takes the box seat run. ZENAZE likely ends up a long way back but has undeniable talent.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – THIS’LL TESTYA WIN

Race 3

JEDAFFAIR is as consistent as they come. She’ll sit on the back of Nelson’s Flight and Avidus and run her weekly honest and tough race. From the box seat she is always a winning chance and should go round eachway. Beaten out of the top 3 only twice at her last 9 starts. NELSON’S FLIGHT bounced back to winning form with a vintage Paul Harvey front running ride. He wasn’t tested until the final 200 and was able to fight them off. MIDNIGHT SKY has hit form and logically jumps favourite. Should have finished closer at her last two. They’re the three winning chances on paper. AVIDUS ran well fresh and either leads or breezes.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – JEDAFFAIR EACHWAY

Race 4

CAROCAPO is becoming increasingly risky as a betting proposition. Has missed the kick at two of his four runs this preparation but last start was able to sit off them for the first time in his career and bullied his way into the clear to win with ease. If he jumps he breezes outside The Nicconian, if he misses away he sits midfield. Either way he’s very hard to beat. REBEL KNIGHT arguably should have won last weekend (same for Excise Free & Plutocracy). Never saw daylight and was bolting. Backing up off 7 days and up to 1200 both positives. THE NICCONIAN had excuses last weekend and will be right up in the firing line. DUTCH SPY could be forgotten by the market. He is good enough to win.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – CAROCAPO WIN

Race 5

MASSIMO vs LAVERROD is an exciting clash. Throw in War Saint and Sanabreanna and this is a cracking race. MASSIMO may get caught three deep in the first furlong and forced to roll forward to the breeze. He looked beaten last start before fighting back underneath Laverrod and it is scary to think how good he will be once the penny drops. LAVERROD was enormous. Slow away, swept around them into the corner. He is the real deal. SANABREANNA has put the writing on the wall at her last two behind Tuscan Queen and Kay Cee. WAR SAINT was rated to perfection by Chris Parnham last start to win the Guineas. Hard to knock him.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet – MASSIMO WIN

Race 6

BEAUTIFUL MIND was the video run of the month first-up and then was big in defeat behind Electric Light in the Jungle Mist. Draws gate number 1 and has shown speed in the past. The option is always there to lead but if she box seats behind Snowchino she’ll get a rails run with that mare rolling at least 3 horses off the fence at all 4 races where she has lead. Can turn the tables. ELECTRIC LIGHT was excellent last start and at set weights and penalties conditions only goes up 1kg. The query will be how far back she gets in a moderate tempo race. PERFECT JEWEL has not seen a race this weak since her 3 year old days. Mixing her form but best is definitely good enough. SNOWCHINO should be afforded every chance in running.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – BEAUTIFUL MIND WIN

Race 7

FLIRTINI was simply brilliant in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes last week. She recorded the fastest final 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200 of the race. She backs up off 7 days, steps to 1400 and draws a gate to sit midfield with cover. Last time she raced in a 1400 she split Lady Cosmology and Arcadia Queen and this race looks at her mercy. Best suited at WFA and should be too good. STAGEMAN is the logical danger. No luck in the Colonel Reeves and then even less in the Winterbottom Stakes. He has gone to the line untested at his last two and is flying. THE CELT ran a ripper fresh but the trip is a query. ARCADIA PRICE improved 10L second-up.

Numbers: 12 – 8 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – FLIRTINI WIN

Race 8

TUSCAN QUEEN profiles near identical to Arcadia Queen last year. Arcadia Queen won a maiden in September, beat the older horses, ran 3rd in the Burgess Queen, won the Champion Fillies, won the Guineas and won the Kingston Town. Tuscan Queen broke her maiden in September, beat the older horses, ran 2nd in the Burgess Queen, won the Champion Fillies and skipped the Guineas due to the extreme heat. She looks the best of the 3-year olds and they’re always the ones to beat at 1800 WFA. KAY CEE has been her equal all campaign and if she can get a track into the race and off the fence from the 600 she’ll run a race. BEST OF DAYS put the writing on the wall in the Railway, draws well and far better suited at WFA than Handicap. DIG DEEP was enormous in the Fairetha. Unsuited in a slowly run Guineas, he draws a gate and gets under the radar.

Numbers: 16 – 15 – 5 – 12

Suggested Bet – TUSCAN QUEEN WIN

Runner by Runner: Kingston Town Classic

Race 9

BRITISH BESSY got the better of Sentimental Gift two starts ago and then last weekend was absolutely enormous in defeat. On a day that always going to suit on speed runners she was one of the few to make considerable ground. Backs up off 7 days, should sit in the first half of the field and takes beating. SENTIMENTAL GIFT is the logical danger on paper. Interesting to see if she can hold a more prominent position in running. They look the clear two. HERE COMES LENNI needs luck from the draw. PUSH TO PASS was a shade disappointing last weekend, York Cup run was good.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – BRITISH BESSY WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,10

8,12

2,5,8,12,15,16

8,11

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