Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

BOPPING BLUE ran his rivals into the ground last start and rises only 1kg under the Set Weights Plus Penalties conditions. Drawn the outside here but has blistering gate speed to be able to get across. BEADS fought on strongly after absorbing brutal pressure last start but should get a lovely run from this draw and looks like he likes a strong tempo. Debutant THOMAS MAGNUM has trialled up very nicely, while STAR SOPRANO has speed to burn but might have to burn the candle at both ends.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet – BOPPING BLUE WIN

RACE 2

SPEEDY MISS was the beneficiary of sitting outside a slow tempo last start but still fought on well to finish a narrow second to I’m Pretty. Not usually an on-pace type and is more effective with a sit, which she should get here. Looks ready to peak (fourth-up 4: 2-1) and can turn the tables. I’M PRETTY wasn’t entitled to win that race but reeled off big late splits to get the job done and it’d be no surprise to see her win again. Just mindful that she’ll have to do it from the tail of the field again second-up. LORD LONSDALE failed over the staying journey last time out but has been freshened. Better suited back to 1400m, will have a field position advantage over most rivals and looks like he suits Mitch Pateman. MEGADON ran some big races last preparation and can produce a cheeky run fresh at odds.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – SPEEDY MISS EACH-WAY

RACE 3

REIGN OF FIRE showed immense talent as a 2YO before getting found out during the top 3YO feature races last preparation. Trialled up well leading into this campaign and was super first-up against the older horses and over an unsuitable 1000m when finishing strongly behind the progressive Amasenus. Drawn to be three-back the fence in a likely fast-run race here and the extra 200m is ideal. TIMELY OUTBURST is fool-proof and boasts outstanding form lines. Sat in the breeze when second to The Spruiker (subsequent 3YO 62+ winner) two starts ago before a tough second to Graceful Girl (subsequent Raconteur Stakes winner) last time out. ALL DAY SESSION has always shown good ability and will love the extra 200m second-up with Pike on board. VANE TEMPEST is starting to put it all together but is up in grade and weight and will have to improve again.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – REIGN OF FIRE WIN

RACE 4

DUNBAR didn’t come up last campaign but also finished behind horses of the ilk of Gemma’s Son, Dom Too Shoot and Em Tee Aye. The jury is definitely still out on him but he strikes a likely high-pressure race with a huge amount of natural pace engaged and Pike should get last crack at them. AGENT JAY is super consistent and the horse to beat but is a big chance of getting crossed and having to do all the chasing dropping back to 1000m which might not suit. SUNNYSILK maps to get a gun run behind the hot speed and is very effective over the short-course. DRINKWHATYOULIKE is going great guns but is likely to have to absorb a huge amount of on-pace pressure to win.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – DUNBAR WIN

RACE 5

TINSNIP wasn’t suited last start but steps back out to a mile and lobs a race devoid of natural speed. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him find the front by default but either way he should get a lovely run from the draw and any of his previous efforts are good enough to be in the finish here. TRUE ATTRACTION is heading to the dispersal sale at the end of the month but won nicely in midweek grade last start. Has shown he is up to this level in the past and maps favourably. TIFF HAS SPOKEN has always teased of being a genuine Saturday-class galloper and broke through for a well-deserved win last time out. Circled the field on that occasion and might get tempo and conditions to suit doing the same again. GUNNAGO strikes the most suitable race of his campaign so far, draws a gate and is likely to get under the guard.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – TINSNIP EACH-WAY

RACE 6

EXCELLENT DREAM was a much better run than reads on paper first-up and is the type of horse who will take significant improvement from a senior rider jumping aboard. Soared through the grades at his last two preparations, is dynamite fresh and has the tactical speed to overcome the sticky alley. MISS FROST is allergic to good barrier draws and comes up with the outside again. She was super first-up and will be rattling home at the end. BROOKLYN PIER is a very classy 3YO taking on the older horses and looks like getting a perfect map but this is a quantum leap from his first-up win. JERICHO MISSILE hasn’t won since his Belgravia Stakes victory 20 months ago but is going okay and gets 2.5kg on Excellent Dream when finishing second to him the last time they met.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – EXCELLENT DREAM WIN

RACE 7

EEYORE WAYZ might be more effective at 1000m but has returned very well this campaign and maps sweetly. Probably wasn’t suited backing up seven days after a solid first-up run last time out but still ran the second-fastest last 200m and gets 2kg on Amasenus. Looks capable of ending her hot streak. AMASENUS is a seriously good mare and it wouldn’t surprise to see her chalk up her fifth-straight win. Has a breathtaking turn-of-foot that can get her out of trouble but she will need it here if she gets jammed up on the fence (again). Interested to see whether she still has the same acceleration if settling closer from the good draw, otherwise she could be back in a lot of traffic. SPECIAL CHOICE has been good at this distance in 72+ company at both runs back this preparation, drops back to a 66+ and Pike sticks. COMES A TIME has been flying all campaign and can lead again.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – EEYORE WAYZ WIN

RACE 8

BILLY AIN’T SILLY should have this race at his mercy. Beat up the older horses at this distance two starts ago before a brave second to the untapped Graceful Girl in the Raconteur Stakes and has consistently run strong benchmark figures. Returns to set weights here, is likely to find the top and looks awfully hard to run down. SHEZA CHALMER is untried at a mile but has finished strongly at all three runs this campaign and maps beautifully. TRI FOR US is a progressive filly who has been impressive against older horses in restricted grade. No reason why she can’t measure up here and earn herself some black type. ALLMAMONEY was plain last start but will relish the extra furlong and gets blinkers added for the first time.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 10 – 12

Suggested Bet – BILLY AIN’T SILLY WIN

RACE 9

NOT TO BE MIST backs up off seven days and his best two runs this campaign have been off the seven-day spin. He’s deep into his campaign but is a consistent type who looks like getting the same run as when he defeated Watch Me Dance in a higher grade four starts ago. HOT ZED has proven to be one of the most underrated horses of the season. Showed he is up to this level and beyond when massive in defeat last start and can lead this. COMFORT ME is often luckless and became a professional black-booker before finding a way to win after enduring a tough run last start. Looks like he can go on with it. MOSCHARD doesn’t win out of turn but is probably in career-best form and was huge again behind Leading Girl and subsequent winner Naughty By Nature last start.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – NOT TO BE MIST EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,5,8,10

2,3,4,5

2,8,10

1,2,3,6,9

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