Races

Glenn Ingram’s Friday Pakenham Preview

Posted on | Posted by Glenn Ingram

RACE 1

The Maher stable has kept the covers on FUNDAMENTAL JOURNEY at the jumpouts, with an apprentice in the saddle for all of her work she’s been ridden cold and not extended, a good size of filly and a good mover, senior rider goes on for her debut and is a big watch in betting. SHAPENAPIT was luckless at Mornington, winner has since won again in town, bigger track suits as it does for Lloyd Kennewell’s filly INVINCIBLE LOVER who was game in defeat at Cranbourne on debut, his stable is running hot and she can found the line well once balanced up last start. Respect the locals, KIWI HARMONY and GLISK on their home track.

Selections: 5,11,8,9

Suggested Bet: FUNDAMENTAL JOURNEY each way

RACE 2

A few here battling for form, BON FETE and I ONLY WISH come through the right races to figure, the latter is ready to win if she hasn’t lost all confidence, the former received a poor ride two back after winning at Sandown, then too far out of her ground last start, could roll forward and use the gate. They look to have it between them. HURRY CURRY has yet to find her 3YO form, she can lead with Radley using his claim to advantage. FIERY DEAL has a few quirks, lays in under pressure but racing well getting onto the home track.

Selections: 3,2,1,4

Suggested Bet: Quinella 3 & 2

RACE 3

CHARMED RUN was entitled to finish closer at Warrnambool, there was strong market expectation first-up and beaten by a better ride, a significant rider change with Jackson Radley taking over, inner draw potentially problematic. FOXENBERG is a talented sprinter and been sparingly raced, fresh off a couple of jumpouts and does his best work early in the prep, if let stride he will take catching. PICK ‘N’ MIX will be vying for speed honours, disappointing first-up this preparation, comes back in off 51 days and a form reversal won’t shock. SEMELLE ROUGE is limited, tough run fresh, could improve into a placing.

Selections: 2,9,4,10

Suggested Bet: CHARMED RUN win

RACE 4

Even bunch. WINTERY has won just one race but performed strongly in fast races and deep fields, she has one-speed and that will go close here, she was typically sharp winning a Warrnambool jumpout in preparation. SHINJINA is a big watch fresh on the home track for Moody & Coleman, jumpouts have been just fair to the eye, the market is key, her form stands out amongst her peers in this field. KIWI RAIDER is a talent, a Ready-To-Run buy she was hot early and may have taken time to settle, jumpouts suggest a forward return is expected. FROSTNIP will go forward and stick on as she did at Geelong, only small the weight may pull her up late.

Selections: 6,5,8,4

Suggested Bet: WINTERY each way

RACE 5

Going with AESEVENTY SEVEN on top, a soft winner at Colac when heavily-backed on the tight track despite the big weight, three week gap between runs and more pressure expected this time, he’s tough and honest and you get a run for your money. FAM GORMAN showed a return to form at Sandown under Ben Melham and kicked for home early before being nabbed on the line. Another strong rider in Jamie Mott takes over and gets his preferred firm surface. GLOBAL ECLIPSE ran on behind him in the same race, held up at a key stage he was only batting away when clear. QUITE THE LASS finds a race with a genuine tempo and is looking for the extra ground, needs a win.

Selections: 1,4,6,8

Suggested Bet: Exotics

RACE 6

ALIANO is on the up and was dominant at Sandown and would have to regress to lose this, yes to 1400m but he now gets the equicast on to muddy the waters. Shut your eyes and hope if taking the short odds. BONS TO RICHES is going super for Alexander Rae, he’s a big, gross type who needs to be persuaded to do it and responded to Shane Foley’s hard riding at Cranbourne, jockey sticks with him. JEWEL BAY is hard & fit and TSARINE will go around with blinkers added after a solid effort last time out. They look the key chances if the favourite doesn’t run up to expectation.

Selections: 1,2,7,10

Suggested Bet: Exotics

RACE 7

WAR MACHINE has a perfect draw and is set for a winning return in the feature event, two quiet jumpouts, he looked in outstanding order given an easy time to score at Werribee, with the stable having a base at Pakenham he must surely have galloped on the grass to familiarise himself in preparation for this WFA contest. JIMMY RECARD is a good galloper and this appears a target race, he’s been quiet at the jumpouts giving nothing away, watch betting. HEDGED is fit & flying and was well-backed in the Standish and plain, wins are spaced but comes in race-fit where key rivals are fresh. VEIGHT won his debut at this course, out of form in recent preparations, a raft of gear changes, won’t shock to see him running into the money.

Selections: 1,8,4,2

Suggested Bet: WAR MACHINE win

RACE 8

PARADISE CITY is nominated for Caulfield on Saturday drawn wide there, if they elect to run she’s a strong winning chance and would expect her to be ridden positively from a good draw after getting back in each of her two runs this prep. TERILEE had support first-up and a good run, once clear she didn’t savage the line, a gap between runs and a jumpout suggest she’s here to run well. Recent form of QUEEN OF TUSCANY is poor and may find this too hot, however, she generally saves her best for Pakenham and blinkers added could spark her up. STAGE ‘N’ SCREEN is a last start Sandown winner and had every chance, should be at peak fitness three runs in, this is harder again.

Selections: 1,7,9,2

Suggested Bet: PARADISE CITY win, QUEEN OF TUSCANY 1 x 4

ROUGHIE: R8 #9 QUEEN OF TUSCANY

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