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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 22

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

An undermanned Doggies outfit battled hard against Freo last week at Optus Stadium but in the end went down by 37 points. They had won 3 on the trot prior to that and currently sit in 8th place on the Ladder.

They take on the Kangaroos who have dropped their last 5 matches in a row and have slipped back to 13th spot.

The Bulldogs welcome back Aaron Naughton, Cody Weightman and Lachie Jaques while the Kangaroos have George Wardlaw and Riley Hardeman returning to their side.

In recent years the Western Bulldogs have owned this fixture winning the last 9 games between these two sides.

The Dogs still have plenty to play for and look more potent up front with Weightman and Naughton returning to the side.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 23 points.

Same Game Multi:  Western Bulldogs to win, Ed Richards, Luke Parker and Tom Liberatore to all get 20 or more disposals and Marcus Bontempelli and Harry Sheezel to both get 25 or more disposals @ $2.95*

FRIDAY

Brisbane v Hawthorn, GABBA, 5.40pm

The Lions were absolutely slaughtered last week by a more hungry and switched on opponent in Carlton. It appeared as though Brisbane switched off in the second half eventually losing by 76 points. Prior to last week though Brisbane had well and truly straightened up their season winning 7 on the trot in fine style. They sit in 5th spot.

The Hawks have also been in strong form winning 6 of their last 7 and they beat the Kangaroos by 16 points last round. They are in 3rd place on the table, a win and a half in front of the Lions.

This should be a high quality match between two of the best sides in the competition. Both teams have plenty to play for with the Hawks trying to chase down Sydney and grab 2nd spot on the ladder while Brisbane will not want to drop this match and risk missing out on the top four. I expect it to be tight and perhaps the slight edge is with the Lions on their home deck but they will need to sharpen up off last week’s performance.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 3 points.

Same Game Multi : Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft to both get 25 or more disposals and Nick Watson and Kai Lohmann to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

Melbourne v Fremantle, MCG, 11.15am

The Demons remain one of the most consistent sides in the game right now winning 4 of their last 5 matches including a 9 point road win over the Suns last week. They sit In 6th spot on the AFL Ladder.

It might not have been pretty but Fremantle showed versatility in getting the job done by 37 points against a plucky Western Bulldogs side in what can only be described as a messy game. Again the Dockers were elite defensively restricting the Dogs to just 41 points. They remain on top of the table with a 3 win buffer on the second placed Sydney.

These two sides met earlier in the season at Optus Stadium in round 2 where the Dockers won by 48 points in a game where Andrew Brayshaw got 39 disposals and Josh Treacy kicked 4 goals.

This time it moves to the MCG however and Melbourne have lost only once at this venue all season. This should be a great test for the Dockers against a quality opponent at the G.

I think they will pass with flying colours like they have all season.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Murphy Reid and Tom Sparrow to both get 20 or more disposals, Andrew Brayshaw to get 25 or more disposals and Josh Treacy to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.05.*

Sydney v Port Adelaide, SCG, 2.15pm

Sydney have looked sharp over the past fortnight accounting for their cross town rivals GWS by 51 points and then hitting the road to defeat Saint Kilda by 19 points. They are in second spot on the ladder, half a win in front of Hawthorn. Errol Gulden has had a big couple of weeks with disposal counts of 41 and 34.

A banged up Port Adelaide lost their fourth straight match going down to GWS by 12 points. They remain in 15th position.

These two sides met in round 14 at the Adelaide Oval where the Swans snuck home by 3 points.

Sydney with home ground advantage and second place on the ladder on the line should be fired up here. I like Sydney to win by a margin.

VERDICT: Sydney by 48 points.

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win, Nick Blakey, Ollie Wines and Chad Warner to all get 20 or more disposals and Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney to both get 25 or more disposals @ $3.35*

Geelong v Essendon, GMHBA Stadium, 2.35pm

The Cats kept their top four hopes alive with a 25 point win over Collingwood last week. It was their third win in a row and they have a very soft run home. They are currently in 7th spot but are just 1 win away from the three sides directly above them on the ladder and have a healthy percentage.

Essendon were shock winners over the Giants three weeks ago but all around it are losses by 67 points, 90 points, 93 points and last week to Adelaide by 72 points.

This has got hiding written all over it,  Geelong by lots.

VERDICT: Geelong by 88 points.

Same Game Multi: Geelong to win by 60 points or more, Bailey Smith to get 30 or more disposals and Shaun Mannagh to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.45*

Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 5.35pm

The Crows have had a strong 3 months winning 10 of their last 13 matches including a 72 point thrashing of the Bombers last week. They are in 4th spot on the ladder.

Richmond climbed off the bottom of the table with their third win of the season last week, defeating West Coast by 11 points. Prior to that were losses by 70 and 57 points.

These two sides met in round 9 where Adelaide won by 37 points. This time around with home ground honours and a charge towards the finals I expect Adelaide to go on a rampage.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 68 points.

Same Game Multi: Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine to both get 25 or more disposals and Riley Thilthorpe and Taylor Walker to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.35*

SUNDAY

GWS v Gold Coast, Manuka Oval, 11.10am

The Giants head in to this match off a 12 point win against Port Adelaide. They are in 12th spot on the table and need to keep winning to keep their slim Wildcard hopes alive.

The Suns are a dead set horror story. They shortened in to Premiership favouritism after a sizzling start to the season but their season has run off the rails and they have now lost their last 10 in a row and slipped to 14th place.

The Giants remain the most unpredictable side in the competition but they are well aware they need to win this and their best footy is dangerous. I’ll tip in to them here.

VERDICT: GWS by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 or less, Bodhi Uwland and Xavier O’Halloran to both get 15 or more disposals and Lachie Whitfield, Lachie Ash and Clayton Oliver to all get 25 or more disposals @ $3.35*

West Coast v Collingwood, Optus Stadium, 2.10pm

West Coast have certainly improved on what we have seen in recent seasons but they have now lost their last 8 in a row and last week’s loss to Richmond was a disappointing performance.

Collingwood won 6 in a row prior to a 25 point loss to Geelong last week. They are in 9th spot and a tilt at the finals lies ahead.

Collingwood are an experienced outfit who have a great system and are hard to beat. They should prove too strong in this one.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Collingwood to win, Harley Reid and Marcus Herbert to both get 25 or more disposals and Nick Daicos to get 30 or more disposals @ $4.20*

St Kilda v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 5.20pm

Saint Kilda have won three of their last 5 matches but couldn’t quite get it done last week against Sydney going under by 19 points. They sit in 11th spot and with the Blues a win ahead of them in 10th spot this is a match of great importance.

Carlton handed in their most insane performance of the season last week blowing away the reigning premiers Brisbane by a whopping 76 points. The victory lifted them in to the top 10.

This is going to be some game of football. Both sides know that a victory here will go a long way towards securing a Wildcard spot and everything is on the line.

I must admit that last week’s performance by Carlton against elite opposition has really made me sit up and take notice. If they play to that level again here they will be tough to beat.

VERDICT: Carlton by 5 points.

Same Game Multi: George Hewett and Callum Wilkie to both get 20 or more disposals, Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith to both get 25 or more disposals and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to get 30 or more disposals @ $3.50*

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