Races

Andrew Hawkins’ Royal Ascot Preview: Day 2

Posted on | Posted by Andrew Hawkins

Race 1

A tough Day 2 at Royal Ascot begins with the G2 Queen Mary Stakes for the two-year-old fillies over five furlongs (1000m). Just look at some of the fillies that have won this race in the last decade alone – Rizeena, Acapulco, Lady Aurelia, Campanelle, Dramatised. It is a terrific race which, this year, shapes up as a real Ryder Cup trans-Atlantic contest. The home team is represented by BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, BORN TO ROCK (who we could almost claim as an Australian given she is trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam) and RELIEF RALLY, among others. I think of those, Beautiful Diamond is the best chance of keeping the prize on local shores. However, the American challenge appears very strong and with their natural speed and precocity, it might just overwhelm the Brits. Wesley Ward has won this four times and sends out BUNDCHEN, who was beaten on debut but by all reports has strengthened up significantly for that dirt effort over 900m. Another American, CRIMSON ADVOCATE, ran in a similar race two days earlier and was beaten but, with blinkers applied, she made all on turf at Gulfstream to score impressively. Natural improvement can be expected for Bundchen and also for another second starter, CYNANE, who quickened nicely to win her only start at Belmont. Those three Americans can reign supreme, with Tom Morley’s Cynane the pick in an open event.

Numbers: 10-6-9-3

Suggested Bet: Cynane EACH WAY

Race 2

The Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, over the round mile for older mares, is a newer addition to the calendar having been established in 2021. The two winners so far have paid 12/1 and 40/1 so it may be worth trying to find some value. That’s certainly the way I’ve played it with LOVE INTEREST more than capable at a price. Stakes placed as a three-year-old last year, she has been unplaced in five starts since. She also failed to beat a runner home at her last two starts, either side of a break, and was beaten 12 and a half lengths on both occasions (her final start last year, she finished last behind Times Square, who is now in Australia). The drop in grade is much needed but she should also be suited getting onto a firmer surface too. She’d need to bounce back but she’s certainly one who could do so in an open handicap. Fascinated by MUKADDAMAH back to the mile with pacifiers for the first time. She was stepped up to a mile and a half at this meeting last year, finishing fourth to another mare now based in Australia – Magical Lagoon – in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes. She will be strong late if she can settle. TAMARAMA and ADELAISE are next best.

Numbers: 10-4-12-17

Suggested Bet: Love Interest EACH WAY

Race 3

The G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is run under similar conditions to the previous race – it is also for older mares at a mile but it is down the straight instead of around the turn and it is at set weights. Big query on HONEY GIRL here. Every time she’s stepped up to a mile, she’s seemingly struggled. She was good in two seven-furlong wins at the Curragh to start her season and this might be her last chance at a mile. If she can see out the trip, she’s a leading player and she’s likely to drift with that query hanging over her. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, a G1 winner last season and a G3 winner at Epsom last time out, looks the main threat. She finished behind Honey Girl at the course and distance last year, but that Coronation was a weird race in behind Inspiral. She’s a big threat. JUMBLY has tightened at every call since declarations on Monday, while ROGUE MILLENNIUM is fascinating dropping back in trip for the first time.

Numbers: 2-7-4-10

Suggested Bet: Honey Girl WIN

Race 4

The G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes over 10 furlongs (2000m) is the meet’s major middle distance attraction. Last year, State Of Rest became the second Cox Plate winner to land the race after So You Think, while Valley placegetters Grandera and Highland Reel have also landed the prize. In 2023, only six horses line up but what a field. It is a shame we don’t get to see the likes of Desert Crown and Vadeni here, but fireworks will go off in this tactical match-up. With just the six runners, we’re going to try and find the winner and hopefully that will come in the form of the overpriced MOSTAHDAF. He isn’t the most reliable horse but when he fires, he is a turbocharged jet. That was on show in the G3 Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia over 2100m, when he just went further and further in front to demolish a field that included two winners from Royal Ascot last year – Dubai Future and Missed The Cut – as well as veteran Sir Busker and recent Scottish stakes winner White Moonlight. If he can match that incredible effort from Riyadh, or even his dominant victory over Dubai Honour in the G3 September Stakes last year, he could break his G1 duck here against the big boys. In fact, a Frankel quinella looks a possibility with 2021 Epsom Derby winner ADAYAR ready to soar again. He’s only had six starts since that Derby win for three successes and, while this is his toughest test since his three-year-old days, he looks capable of measuring up. LUXEMBOURG and BAY BRIDGE are next best but let’s hope Mostahdaf can propel us towards a profit.

Numbers: 5-1-4-2

Suggested Bet: Mostahdaf WIN

Race 5

The Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile is Royal Ascot’s equivalent of the Doncaster or the Epsom, although it attracts horses that are just below stakes grade for the most part – either those heading in that direction or, often, those stepping down from some of those big races. As is the case in these big-field handicaps, there are plenty of chances but it might be worth taking a stab with AWAAL at his return to Britain. He disappointed in a Listed race at Longchamp last time out although he was only two and a half lengths behind multiple G1 winner Skalleti. Back to a mile, he looks well placed and he can make a sweeping run down the stands side fence late. POINT LYNAS is a must-include for all exotics. He gets in 3lb light, having run a good second since weights were issued, and in his current vein of form he’s capable of performing well. BLUE FOR YOU is second-up here after a good return at York. He was below par in the Balmoral Handicap at the course and distance in October but getting back onto firmer footing looks key. Favourite PEROTTO, winner of the 2021 Britannia Handicap for three-year-olds at the course and distance during this meeting, was only three-quarters of a length behind this year’s Doncaster Mile runner-up My Oberon this time last year. The balance of his form reads well and he deserves respect.

Numbers: 6-25-11-21

Suggested Bet: Awaal EACH WAY

Race 6

The G2 Queen’s Vase, for the three-year-olds over a mile and six furlongs or 2800m, has undergone something of a rejuvenation since it was shortened from two miles. Not that it was won by poor horses before – winners over 3200m included a pair of Melbourne Cup palcegetters in Mahler and Hartnell as well as a future Ascot Gold Cup winner in the late Queen’s filly Estimate. Winners since the change have included the mighty Stradivarius, a future Irish Derby winner in Santiago and future St Leger victors in Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov. This year, the unbeaten GREGORY looks poised to continue his streak with a big triumph here. He was so good in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes last time out and should appreciate getting up from just further than 2300m to the 2800m here. Hopefully, Frankie Dettori can land a winner on Day 2 with this son of one of his old favourites, Golden Horn. Outside him, it looks open – ST VINCENTS GARDEN in the famous Lloyd Williams navy and blue looks to be making plenty of progress fast and he appears a horse who could be seen in Australia one day, CIRCLE OF FIRE steps out for King Charles III and Queen Camilla and shapes as though he’ll appreciate the stiffer trip and PEKING OPERA could be anything.

Numbers: 5-12-3-9

Suggested Bet: Gregory WIN (Best Bet)

Race 7

The Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over five furlongs (1000m) for the two-year-olds brings the curtain down on Day 2. With 26 runners, most unexposed, it looks nigh on impossible to find the winner. Generally, the market gets it right with three favourites and a further two single-figure winners over the past decade. But every now and then one sneaks under the radar and takes the spoils. Hopefully that is the case with WORLD OF DARCY here, coming off a second to stablemate Elite Status – early favourite for the G2 Norfolk Stakes on Thursday – in the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. He was no match, but he chased well late and – although he looks like the six furlongs might be more appropriate now – a large field over the 1000m might suit him. He gets the nod from Thirsk maiden winner SERGEANT WILKO, who ticks a lot of historical boxes for this event. Getting onto firmer ground should prove a plus too. JOHANNES BRAHMS is in the right hands to figure, although the step back in trip appears a query, while BARNWELL BOY deserves favouritism but appears just one chance amongst many in this open event.

Numbers: 26-20-12-3

Suggested Bet: World Of Darcy EACH WAY

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