Races

Michael Heaton’s Friday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

Going once more with COSTA STAR. The 24-start maiden cost herself with a steady getaway last week but she powered to the line in good late splits and now draws soft in barrier 2. 1400m has always stretched her previously but she’s going quite well now and can break through if she steps cleanly. SWISHGOBANGO was crying out for more ground when finishing strongly in the other 1200m maiden division last week and the step to 1400m looks ideal for him. ALL KING’S is knocking on the door and ready to open it but he looks destined to do it tough or get a long way back from his outside draw here. Stablemate THE SESSIONE was much better at his second run on the dirt and should be in the mix again.

Numbers: 5-2-3-4

Suggested Bet – COSTA STAR WIN

RACE 2

VIOLENT looks a progressive filly for the Carnarvon region. She ran a big race on debut at Geraldton when reeling off some of the fastest closing sectionals of the day to finish a close second and was then a month between runs when having her first start on the dirt, working across from an awkward draw to ride the speed and proving far too good for her rivals at Carnarvon. She gets a good claim here and can produce a carbon copy. CASINO ROYALE drops from consecutive 56+ starts back into a C1 and was only beaten a length in a good chasing effort last time out. KIMBERLEY CURRENCY has drawn the outside at his last 2 starts and this looks a much better setup for him if he can jump cleanly and roll forward. HOT NOVA has been good at both starts this prep and now gets a senior rider back aboard but she’s hard to catch.

Numbers: 6-2-11-7

Suggested Bet – VIOLENT WIN

RACE 3

CORN COB has the profile of a horse who should be very hard to beat in Carnarvon this season and he won accordingly last week. He now steps up to 1600m from an awkward draw and also rises to 59.5kg but he has the tactical speed to roll forward, be ridden like the best horse in the race and salute again. BELVEDERE ROCK has been widely travelled this month but he’s hit the line super at both starts and he’ll relish the rise in trip. WHO’S YOUR MAMA stuck on well last week, gets a 1.5kg swing on Corn Cob and is better suited with the extra furlong. IRONCLAD BOY is the only other horse within the handicap scale of this race and he could kick through to lead again.

Numbers: 1-3-2-6

Suggested Bet – CORN COB WIN

RACE 4

Playing VERSAILLE on spec first up, no trial. Both the 4YO mare’s career wins have come first up, she’s an effective short-course type and she has the natural speed to roll forward and ride the pace for a long way with 3.5kg less than her main danger. DEVILS I was a good run first up in higher grade when second to Gold Spy at this track/distance and he’s a nice type for this region but he’s now 41 days between runs, rises 5kg to a 62kg impost and 1000m looks like it could be a bit short and sharp for him? The consistent KUNAPIPI drops sharply in distance from 1400m to 1000m off 7 days and is another who might want further to produce her best. COZZIES CHOICE has options from her inside draw.

Numbers: 4-2-6-9

Suggested Bet – VERSAILLE WIN

RACE 5

BIGDAYONIT improved sharply at his second run on the dirt and now drops back in class to a grade he’s really well suited in. He’s a former multiple metro winner and now that he’s back in form and race fit, he should be able to land on-speed and prove hard to get past. YES I BELIEVE was one of the biggest wins of the season so far when coming from a mile back to win impressively at his second start in WA. He also recorded good late sectionals first up and looks a type who can go on with it. SWEXAN gets a 1.5kg swing on Yes I Believe from last start and has drawn inside of Bigdayonit so he can work his way to the top again. WHAT ABOUT MOI was beaten a head by subsequent winner Only Us at this track/grade/distance 2 starts back.

Numbers: 1-12-6-7

Suggested Bet – BIGDAYONIT WIN

RACE 6

MYSTERY MINUTE ran a close second to Only Us (since won his next 2) first up before a strong win second up in good time when beating subsequent winner Weapons Hot (as well as subsequent winner Yes I Believe). He now drops 1kg, has tactical versatility and looks a horse who can continue his winning ways over the coming months. SHOOTING KONTIKI was a strong 1000m winner in this grade 2 starts back and carries 1.5kg less here after the clever use of Jason Li’s claim. He’s more than capable at 1200m. INCANDESCENT LADY is a speedy mare with only 53kg and whilst she wasn’t able to find the top last week, she still ran well and can lead this time around. GOLD SPY is going well and will be the one trying to wind up and savage the line late.

Numbers: 6-3-8-4

Suggested Bet – MYSTERY MINUTE WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,3

2,4,6,9,10

1,6,7,12

3,4,6,8

160 combinations

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