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David Shortte’s AFL Round 1 Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Carlton v Richmond, MCG, 4.30pm

Carlton felt the full power of the Sydney Swans in the second half of their season opener last week being blown away by 63 points after leading by 4 goals early in the third quarter. In fairness I am pretty sure it won’t be the last time Sydney do that to their opposition at the SCG this year. Carlton coughed this fixture up last year after leading comfortably and they will need to play 4 full quarters to get it done here. In their favour their seasoned players like Cripps, Walsh and Hewett look set to play big roles here and young gun Jagga Smith should relish the opportunity to help his side bring up their first win of the year.

Richmond are very much still a work in progress with a stockpile of top quality youngsters that are talented but learning on the job. As we saw last year though the future is bright for the Tigers in 2-3 years time when the youth matures with 50 or 60 AFL senior games under their belt.

It is difficult to tip the Blues with any serious confidence but they look to get a good opportunity to bounce back here.

VERDICT: Carlton to win by 13 points

Same Game Multi: Carlton to win, Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith to get 25 or more disposals and Sam Banks to get 20 disposals or more @ $3.40*

FRIDAY

Essendon v Hawthorn, MCG, 4.40pm

Hawthorn looked to be getting GWS at a good time last week with a string of key Giants sidelined but the Hawks failed to deliver eventually going down by 27 points. There are question marks on their midfield with Jai Newcombe likely to be forced to do a lot of heavy lifting while Will Day remains injured. On the upside veteran forward Jack Gunston continues to deliver with 4 majors and the likes of Sicily, Weddle, Barrass and Battle give them plenty to work with out of the back half.

It was horrendous scenes for Zach Merrett in the off season with his attempt to move to Hawthorn failing at the final hurdle. Exactly what the reception looks and sounds like for him in this match is of great interest.  The Bombers were cruelled by injury for the majority of last season and the hangover from that is no Nic Martin for this season but on the whole a lot more of their first choice regular side are available here.

Hawthorn head in a warm favourite and look likely to take care of business against the Bombers.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Jack Gunston to kick 3 or more goals, Brayden Fiorini to get 15 or more disposals and Jye Caldwell to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.75*

SATURDAY

Western Bulldogs v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 10.15am

The Doggies took a major scalp in opening round knocking off the back to back Premiers Brisbane up at the GABBA. The Doggies have a stack of quality they can run through the middle of the ground and that may allow Bontempelli the luxury of spending more time forward where he is dangerous. Tim English remains on of the premier big men in the game while the likes of Richards, Liberatore and Kennedy continue to deliver. The one two punch of Naughton and Darcy combined for 10 goals the last time these two sides met and they look major threats again.

GWS were magnificent in their season opener against the Hawks. Missing key personnel their ability to simply roll up the sleeves and get on with it was clear for all to see. Up front Jake Stringer put on a masterclass slotting 5 majors while Jesse Hogan looked sharp with his 3.

The Western Bulldogs play their best football under the roof at Marvel and off their road win last week they should take some stopping. I expect this to be a very entertaining high scoring encounter.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Sam Darcy, Aaron Naughton and Marcus Bontempelli to kick 2 goals or more each and Western Bulldogs to win @ $3.95*

Geelong v Fremantle, GMHBA Stadium, 1.15pm

Geelong headed up to the Gold Coast for Opening Round and were completely outplayed by the Suns eventually losing by 56 points. It must be remembered however that they made it to the Grand Final in 2025 and they remain a side that must always be respected, particularly with the prospect of Cameron and Dangerfield returning to their side.

Fremantle have looked sharp in the pre-season and are relatively healthy with just a question mark on whether Hayden Young will come up from leg soreness for this match. Last year’s Rising Star Murphy Reid looks set for more time on ball and he kicked 4 goals in a losing cause against the Cats on debut last season – watch out for him in this clash. It is never easy travelling to the Cattery but Freo should give a good account of themselves here.

With the benefit of a game under their belt, the likely return of two of their Stars and home ground advantage the Cats just get the nod but nothing would surprise here.

VERDICT: Geelong by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Murphy Reid, Jordan Clark and Gryan Miers to all get 20 or more disposals and Josh Treacy to kick two or more goals @ $5.00*

Sydney v Brisbane, SCG, 4.10pm

Sydney took a while to get going against Carlton in Opening Round but when they did they went whooshka! An 18 goal second half where their potency was on full display for all to see. Curnow was good with 3 goals on debut for his new side and Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner were at their brilliant best.

Brisbane toiled away hard in their opening round loss to the Western Bulldogs but the downside for them were 3 suspensions and the injury to Hugh McLuggge.It will leave them missing some key pieces of the puzzle for their visit to Sydney.

I loved what I saw from Sydney and while this is a tougher assignment they look to be getting the Lions at the right time.

VERDICT: Sydney by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win, Errol Gulden to get 25 or more disposals and Logan Morris to kick 2+ goals @ $3.35*

Collingwood v Adelaide, MCG, 4.35pm

Collingwood opened their campaign with a gutsy 12 point win over the Saints. It was not the prettiest of games but Nick Daicos (41 disposals) and Josh Daicos (36 disposals) were tremendous. Dan Houston played a more pivotal role with ball in hand, Scott Pendlebury was as classy as ever and Jordan De Goey made the most of his opportunities slotting 3 majors.

Adelaide had to wait their turn for their season opener and will come in to this game fresh. Despite going out of the finals in straight sets there was a lot to like about the Crows season in 2025.

I had this game as a very even contest with the unknown of Adelaide fresh against a Pies side that are always up for a scrap.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 or less, Dan Houston to get 20 or more disposals, Josh Daicos to get 25 or more disposals and Riley Thilthorpe to kick two or more goals @ $3.60*

SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 10.10am

The Kangaroos open their campaign at home with a fairly clean bill of health for their roster. They have continued to disappoint in recent seasons and despite trying valiantly they have not been able to land any big name recruits to their club for the new season. They will be relying on further improvement from their younger brigade to improve in 2026.

Josh Carr takes over the reigns as the Coach of Port for the new season. The top end talent at Port is elite – Butters, Rozee, Horne-Francis, Georgiades – the key for them will be how the rung of players underneath them perform.

This is one of the tougher matches of the round to predict and I will be playing this fairly conservatively.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 11 points

Same Game Multi: Mitch Georgiades to kick 3 goals or more and Paul Curtis to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.95*

Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG, 12.15pm

Saint Kilda were much hyped heading in to opening round for their clash with the Pies and despite some encouraging signs they were not able to convert some gilt edged opportunities in front of goal in key moments. They will be looking to tidy that up and free up their $2 miilion man Nasiah Wanganeen Milera who was blanketed out of the contest in the second half of that game.

Melbourne have cleared the decks and start afresh in 2026 with a new Coach and minus Petracca, Oliver and May and for at least the start of the season Jack Viney. It leaves them with an unheralded midfield but it certainly creates opportunity. I like the inclusion of Brody Mihocek up front and big man Max Gawn remains one of the most influential players in the game.

Saint Kilda will have been disappointed to come up empty in opening round and they get their chance to grab their first win of the season here.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 16 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 29 points or less, Jack Higgins to kick 2 goals or more and Brody Mihocek to kick 2 goals or more @ $4.80*

Gold Coast v West Coast, People First Stadium, 3.10pm

Gold Coast made a statement with their opening round demolition of Geelong. New recruit Christian Petracca was scintillating with 34 disposals and 3 goals while Ben King and Bailey Humphries chimed in with 4 goals apiece. They look to be a force to be reckoned with.

West Coast come in fresh and look to have landed one of the toughest examinations in the game right now. I expect there to be some improvement from the Eagles this season but this might not be the game where we see it.

The Suns came out breathing fire last week and if they play with similar intent here the Eagles will have their hands full.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 57 points

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win by 40 points or more, Ben King to kick 4 or more goals, Bailey Humphrey to kick 2+ goals @ $3.75*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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