Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PAINT IT RED ran second on debut to highly talented, undefeated Simon Miller youngster Twisted Steel and then backed up off 7 days and won at Bunbury beating Fiery Spark (a Saturday winner himself). Given a freshen up, only has 56kg in a race with a 2kg spread and either crosses to lead or sits in the breeze. Hard to beat. DESERT LIFE is the obvious danger after an encouraging return behind Castle Road and then a sharp straight 1000m win at Pinjarra when held up until the last 75m. EXCESS BAGGAGE has looked good, albeit only 400m jump outs. SNIP OF ROMANCE won well but Fibre Sand to grass?

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – PAINT IT RED WIN

RACE 2

GINNIVAN is a Belmont winter wet track 1000m specialist: 9:5-3-1 and 100% of those wins have been on soft rated tracks. There’s no more rain forecast for Perth between Wednesday night and Saturday afternoon so the track should be able to recover into the soft5/6 range and that’s a perfect surface for a jump and run horse like him. Question is: can he cross them? HANCHI is a get back sprinter who will always be vulnerable with that racing pattern, however, the small field suits and they’ll burn early. PULI will be looking to hold up but the pressure will be on big time. CUT THE TALK will improve sharply second-up after a long absence.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – GINNIVAN WIN

Same Race Multi – Ginnivan (Top 2) + Hanchi (Top 2)

Small select field of six to go around in the 2025 Jolly Beggar Stakes and going to play it straight and back in a SRM Fixed Odds Quinella with Ginnivan and Hanchi to run 1st and 2nd. Ginnivan won this race in 2024 and can really burn early while Hanchi is suited to the smaller field size.

RACE 3

NICCIMOTA odds on in a Saturday race – never thought I’d see the day and it feels illegal, but this is a very thin line-up and Chanel Cooper is riding her to perfection. You look on the form guide and think ‘she’s been run down in a C1 first-up’ but then remember that out of that race Ginger Morpheus was backed into $1.32 last week in a Westspeed Platinum and won accordingly. If she’s ever going to win a Saturday it’s this weekend. GO GO GROMMET has been excellent at his last two but does look like being three deep the trip? THIS’LL SHOW YA rarely runs a bad race and can be the first to attack Niccimota. GOLD VANCOUVER parks and rides the speed.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – NICCIMOTA WIN

RACE 4

LORD GANNICUS won a 72+ 1600 three back beating First Encounter, ran second in the Jockey Celebration Day Stakes to Sensessional (since won the Blue Spec Stakes) two back and last start was grabbed in the shadows of the post by key rival Arcadia Knight. There’s a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour, there’s little other speed and pressure and he’s holding form brilliantly. Happy to go his way (again). ARCADIA KNIGHT was the one that the market circled in that race at Pinjarra and the punters were spot on. He gets through the wet tracks better than most. STREET BAND was afforded every chance last start. INVESTMENT STRATEGY is lengths below his best.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – LORD GANNICUS WIN

RACE 5

SNOW GOD – is Saturday the day? Second to Terratif, second to Yorga Pride (that’s the real selling point), second to Immortal Bliss. He’s back out to 1200m, he’s slightly back in grade into a Westspeed Platinum for the first time, he’s drawn a gate and if he steps cleanly he can sit right up over the speed and hold a tactical advantage over his main Diamond Dancer in running. Looks a great set up for him. DIAMOND DANCER has been figured out. She’s lengths better with cover and ridden cold, saved up for one last sprint. REPEATER has gone from a C1 to a C3 to a Westspeed Platinum this prep and is flying. EMPRESS OF INDIA found traffic at a crucial stage last week.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – SNOW GOD WIN

RACE 6

SCULLY was a very quiet trial at Belmont leading into his WA Debut and was a replay watchers delight at his first-up run over 1000m behind talented duo Immortal Bliss and Snow God. He drops 3kg into a 66+, gets out to a far more suitable 1200m and is drawn to enjoy a nice run midfield with cover. Can work his way through the grades. SUNLIT FRESCO was a huge drifter in betting down the straight first-up and was comfortably run down. Madhi Girl and Under Influence have made that form look good since though. SENTIMENTAL BELLE sits back and has last crack at them. LITTLE SILVER awkwardly back to 1200 mid-prep?

Numbers: 10 – 11 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – SCULLY WIN

RACE 7

FIOREYES is the perfect example of how well the Ash Maley yard is going. Beaten 7.5 – Beaten 7.1 – Nearly wins. He’s a capable stayer when he’s in form and now that he’s had that one promising run, happy to jump on the bandwagon and suggest he can win this at near double figures. ALASKAN has run a lot of close minors where he’s looked to have the race wrapped up and then been nabbed late. In the words of Dandoesfooty “he’s on fraud watch”. PETROUCHKA gets out to her preferred distance range now and after the Cooper Claim is well in at the weights. Never going to be an easy ride for an apprentice though: get back stayer drawn wide. DARK LOOKS continues to race well.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – FIOREYES EACHWAY

RACE 8

ON PATROL is the kind of horse you need eachway to entertain and that’s what we’ll get here. Huge against the pattern two back and last start he was held tight inside the heels of the eventual winner Diamond Dancer and had to wait until she went a length past him before coming out to make his run. Swap the runs, swap the result and this is a very winnable race for him. ESSENTRIC NATURE trialled well and then was extremely popular in betting going around $2.25 in a 66+. Sneaks back in grade and carries the same weight with Chanel going on. GI GI POPS finds a race where she can lead and dictate. CRUISE TO VICTORY is as consistent as they come.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet – ON PATROL EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,5,7

4,10,11

1,3,4,6,9,10,11

3,5,6,10

Market Market




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