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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Geelong v Western Bulldogs, GMHBA Stadium, 5.30pm

Geelong are renowned for playing ducks and drakes with their final line-up. However, if they commit to Tom Stewart and Jack Henry in the back six when their final team lists are lodged later today, they are going to be awfully hard to toss, especially in Mitch Duncan’s 300th game.

The Western Bulldogs can rightfully lay claim to being one of the best four sides in the league, even though their record doesn’t reflect that. Their midfield, led by Tom Liberatore, Ed Richards and Marcus Bontempelli, is feared and will ask many questions of Geelong’s running division, headed up by Bailey Smith and Max Holmes.

Luke Beveridge has been able to extract so much from the lesser lights on his list in the face of mounting adversity and it’s not as if they don’t know how to win down the highway. But if the Cats are as selected, this is a venue game … plain and simple.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

Same Game Multi: Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle to kick 2+ goals @ $3.75*

FRIDAY

Essendon v Richmond, MCG, 5.40pm

Less than a week after having their clocks cleaned by the Western Bulldogs, Essendon are afforded an opportunity to redeem themselves. There is no other way to put this. They need to win. Period.

The Bombers are getting Richmond at the right time. The Tigers, competitive for the most part in Adem Yze’s second season at the helm, are without Tom Lynch (concussion), Noah Balta (curfew) and Toby Nankervis (managed).

As a result, it sets up beautifully for Essendon, who not only need to prevail, but impact the scoreboard with greater efficiency.

VERDICT: Essendon by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Zach Merrett, Tim Taranto and Nick Martin to have 25+ disposals @ $2.70*

SATURDAY

Carlton v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 10.35am

For most of his career in the AFL, Michael Voss has lived in the spotlight. His time as a triple Brisbane Lions premiership captain was celebrated, as was his appointment as Leigh Matthews’ successor soon after he retired.

Things didn’t end well there though and unless the Blues start stringing some wins together, the scenario at Carlton might not be too dissimilar. Carlton rely so heavily on so few to do the heavy lifting that they can be vulnerable if the headline acts are subdued.

But GWS are off the boil and could be gettable here. The Giants are missing the likes of Josh Kelly, Finn Callaghan and Stephen Coniglio through the midfield … an area where the Blues are most stacked. That spells trouble.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

Same Game Multi: Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Jesse Hogan to kick 2+ goals @ $3.55*

Hawthorn v Brisbane, MCG, 2.15pm

It can be a harsh world, the AFL. Brisbane are winless in the past fortnight and as a result, have had their hunger levels questioned. Hawthorn sit inside the top four with a 7-3 win-loss record yet some are still to be convinced of their authenticity.

What isn’t debatable is the Hawks’ excellent record against Brisbane, having not lost to the Lions since 2019. Included in that streak are wins here at the MCG. Brisbane’s inability to hold ground midfield against North Melbourne and Melbourne has been costly.

It is an area where Hawthorn are OK without being spectacular minus Will Day. Jai Newcombe doesn’t appear fully fit. For Hawthorn’s sake, he has to find a way to get up and play his role.

VERDICT: Hawthorn to win

Same Game Multi: Karl Amon to have 20+ disposals, and Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko to have 25+ disposals @ $2.48*

North Melbourne v Collingwood, Marvel Stadium, 5.35pm

Collingwood are well below full strength for this encounter and North Melbourne are coming off a confidence-boosting victory over Richmond last Sunday.

The Kangaroos faithful will be thinking there is a glimmer of hope. In the corresponding match last year, North led Collingwood by 54 points before the Kings of the tight finish pulled their digits out and stole a one-point victory.

The Magpies, despite the absence of skipper Darcy Moore, Steele Sidebottom, Jordan De Goey and co., are dripping in class and can get you in a variety of ways. The Kangaroos are a long way removed from that.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: North Melbourne +38.5-points and Luke Davies-Uniacke and Nick Daicos to have 25+ disposals @ $2.70*

Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

The AFL’s Jekyll and Hyde, Fremantle, return to the comforts of home this weekend for a clash with a wounded Port Adelaide. Surely, this is one the Dockers take care of.

The way the Power defend is questionable and no Esava Ratugolea leaves them shortchanged in an area where they don’t bat overly deep. Fremantle’s ball movement against GWS last weekend was sublime and provided an inkling into what they are capable of.

Shai Bolton’s acquisition has been scrutinised heavily as it was always going to be. His effort against the Giants underlined why the Dockers parted with so much to land him. He is their X-Factor.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Same Game Multi: Shai Bolton to kick 1+ behind and 2+ goals @ $2.55*

SUNDAY

Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 11.10am

Adelaide’s firepower at home has troubled a lot of teams in 2025. And a lot of those teams are considerably stronger than West Coast, an outfit that has won rarely in recent times and been extremely poor outside WA.

The Crows, not for the first time, tested Collingwood in Melbourne last weekend only to come up short. That is a good form reference here, with Izak Rankine proving once more that he is a bona fide A-grader. How much work will West Coast put into him?

The Eagles finally received some overdue nourishment for their competitiveness against St Kilda, but unless the midfield holds up again, the young tall defensive pairing of Sandy Brock and Harry Edwards could be in for a tough afternoon.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe to kick 3+ goals @ $4.60*

Melbourne v Sydney, MCG, 1.20pm

It’s always fraught with danger declaring the bookmakers have assessed a game incorrectly. They are right so much of the time. But it just feels the decision to install Melbourne as outsiders was a blooper.

We know how this ends!!!! The Demons are fresh off a stirring win over Brisbane at the Gabba, while the Swans travel south having taken care of Carlton at home, courtesy of herculean efforts from Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney.

Sydney don’t have access to suspended duo Joel Amartey and Justin McInerney, whereas Melboune have the added motivation of Christian Petracca’s 200th appearance.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win and over 167.5 points @ $3.45*

St Kilda v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

Pretenders or contenders? That is the question being asked about St Kilda’s top-eight claims ahead of this match. We will know the answer at the final siren.

The loss of Jack Macrae (punctured lung) is a huge setback for the Saints, who run headlong into a confident Suns outfit fresh off beating the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. An historic finals appearance seems a formality.

Ross Lyon is a master at disarming an opposition side’s strength. Halting the Gold Coast juggernaut though is not an easy assignment.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win and Ben King and Jack Higgins to kick 2+ goals @ $3.80*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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