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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 7

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Melbourne v Richmond, MCG, 5.30pm

Fresh off their stunning victory over Fremantle, Melbourne get another look against Richmond. And while the Tigers would argue the same, the market is very much in the corner of the Demons.

It’s not hard to understand why. Melbourne were viewed as a top-eight contender entering the season whereas Richmond’s rebuild was very much in the infancy stage. A feature of the Tigers’ 2-4 start to 2025 though has not only been the energy of the kids, but the solid contributions of their senior core.

If that continues on a huge stage, then there are a chance. But the Demons have the big bodies midfield, Max Gawn to lead the ruck against Toby Nankervis and one of the form players of the competition, Kysiah Pickett, whose stocks continue to soar.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win, game total under 183.5 points and Clayton Oliver to have 25+ disposals @ $2.63*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Essendon, MCG, 1.20pm

From a tardy start to a juggernaut, the transformation of Collingwood in the past month has been dramatic — and all for the right reasons.

The Magpies are doing a number on their opposition in the midfield, defending stoutly and kicking totals ask serious questions of their rivals. That is an area of concern for Essendon, who despite riding a three-game winning streak haven’t been anywhere near as convincing.

Peter Wright’s six-goal haul in his return match last round was superb, but the bleak weather forecast means such a bag against a quality Magpies defence, even in the absence of Darcy Moore, is unlikely.

VERDICT: Collingwood 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Ned Long, Scott Pendlebury and Sam Durham to all have 20+ disposals @ $2.40*

Fremantle v Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Don’t Fremantle have the innate ability to put themselves under unnecessary pressure? If you disagree, ask yourself the following question … how many legitimate top-eight contenders go and lose to Melbourne in the manner the Dockers did?

You wouldn’t need two hands to add them all up. Subsequently, Fremantle face a match of undeniable importance on one of their biggest occasions, the Len Hall Tribute Game. Adelaide venture west full of confidence after a bright start to the season, but without Darcy Fogarty.

His absence is significant. Taylor Walker now gets the second-best Dockers tall defensive option as opposed to the third, with Riley Thilthorpe a clear focal point.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Same Game Multi: Ben Keays and Shai Bolton to kick 1+ goals and Josh Treacy and Riley Thilthorpe to kick 2+ goals @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 11.20am

Brisbane had been flirting with their form in the first month of the season. To overcome the first-half deficits in the manner they did spoke volumes of not only the quality in their team, but the self-belief levels.

But on an abbreviated break and matched up by a dialled-in Collingwood, the bubble burst big time. It might be the reset Chris Fagan and his premiers need. The availability of Kai Lohmann for this clash is also critically important.

St Kilda, a bit like the Lions, are playing in patches. Their inability to lock the ball inside their attacking 50m against the Western Bulldogs was quite stark. It is obvious they need to be better when the game is not on their terms.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Brisbane 1-39 points and game total under 196.5 points @ $2.70*

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 2.15pm

One of these two teams has dug in when they could have capitulated after a horrid start to the season. The other side is North Melbourne. The less said about the latter the better.

Let’s focus on the positives. A week after they stunned the football world with a mauling of Hawthorn, the Power travelled to their home away from home, the SCG, and brought down Sydney. It was a performance full of merit and featured key contributions from senior players.

The decision to shift Connor Rozee to half-back has been a masterstroke by Ken Hinkley, who might well be within his rights to lodge adoption papers for Zak Butters, who has been mighty since returning from injury and clearly loves playing for his coach.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Willie Rioli to kick 2+ goals and Mitch Georgiades to kick 3+ goals @ $2.85*

GWS v Western Bulldogs, Manuka Oval, 5.25pm

Jesse Hogan returns for GWS. Sam Darcy exits for the Western Bulldogs. If you were undecided on which way to lean in the tipping competitions, the aforementioned information is likely to see you settle on the Giants.

Even though they are still without key pair Stephen Coniglio and Brent Daniels through injury and are coming off a horrible attacking performance in the loss to Adelaide, GWS are a team to be feared. Their best is electric.

Bulldogs fans could rightly claim the same about their side. The display post-quarter time opposed to St Kilda was magnificent. Marcus Bontempelli’s input exceeded expectations from just about everyone. Will Adam Kingsley give Toby Bedford the unenviable task of quelling the Bulldogs skipper?

VERDICT: GWS to win

Same Game Multi: Darcy Jones to kick 1+ goal and Toby Greene to kick 2+ goals @ $2.55*

SUNDAY

Gold Coast v Sydney, People First Stadium, 11.15am

The announcement this week that Chad Warner would remain with Sydney for a further two seasons was music to the ears of all Swans supporters. Now is the time for Warner to rediscover his best form because Sydney’s year is on a knife-edge.

Failure to protect their home patch (they’ve lost three SCG games in 2025) places added pressure on them to get the job done away from the Harbour City. And People First Stadium of late is becoming a very tough place to play if you’re not the Gold Coast Suns.

Damien Hardwick’s men fluffed their lines against Richmond, but on what we have seen thus far this year, the chances of two poor ones in quick succession are slim. Gold Coast’s midfield looms as a major problem for Sydney.

VERDICT: Gold Coast 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win and game total over 164.5 points @ $1.97*

Carlton v Geelong, MCG, 1.20pm

If Geelong handle the “back-up”, they are winning this game. Respectfully, the Cats’ formlines are so superior to that of Carlton (beating West Coast and North Melbourne in successive weeks), it is not funny.

But the Blues should be feeling good about themselves and will be nice and fresh for this encounter, whereas the Cats have to front up six days after an Easter Monday epic against Hawthorn.

No Gryan Miers (concussion) deprives Geelong of a legitimate playmaker, while the Cats’ midfield will know it’s in a battle against a Blues on-ball division featuring the in-form George Hewett, Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

Same Game Multi: Tom Atkins to have 15+ disposals and Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra to have 25+ disposals @ $2.50*

Hawthorn v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 2.45pm

From the outside looking in, Oscar Allen is not that keen to remain at West Coast and the Eagles, for all their public utterings, aren’t that perturbed if he leaves at the end of the season as a free agent.

Before we get to that point however, Allen needs to produce as a leader should — on and off the field. His form in 2025 has been horrid, leading to his omission for the home match against Essendon. The Eagles had a crack against the Bombers and Allen must show the same level of desire opposed to Sam Mitchell and his Hawks.

No Tim Kelly leaves the Eagles a little thin midfield and that spells trouble. Hawthorn had sufficient looks to get past Geelong, but self-inflicted wounds by foot were costly. Hawthorn win this by plenty.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Nick Watson to kick 2+ goals, Jayden Hunt to have 15+ disposals and Liam Baker to have 20+ disposals @ $3.40*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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