Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Northam Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BROWN MORN should be just about ready third-up and Brad Parnham has seemingly given the punters a lead by electing to ride him over West Massiv. You would think that this is his chance to roll to the top (or park outside the lead) and turn it into a grinding staying test from a long way out. Very one paced. TIVACISAURUS went around $1.60 last start, sat at the rear of the small field but never got warm. He might be better suited drawing wide so that he can wind up into the race. WEST MASSIV was scratched last week over 1600 and now steps out to 2100. LEAD BY EXAMPLE ran some cheeky races at this distance in the fillies series.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – BROWN MORN WIN

RACE 2

OUR MATE ARCHIE has trialled three times and won all three of them in style. He won a pair of 950m trials back in April, the second of those by over 2L and didn’t make it to the races and then this time in he has been to a 930m back straight trial at Lark Hill and again bolted in by over 2L. Pike on, drawn well, should go well. RAZMAS is the full brother to Fabergino and will always have a weight of expectation on his shoulders. First-up run was career best. POLYVANOVA takes on the older horses with no weight and a set of shades. WAR MATTERS went around short at Pinjarra first-up last prep. May want further.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet – OUR MATE ARCHIE WIN

RACE 3

AMAROO STAR was very popular in betting on debut off the back of a strong trial win. Was drawn to endure a tough run and that’s exactly how it panned out. There was no spot in the map for him and he had to drag back into an awkward position. All things considered ran well and second-up drawing barrier 1 has a lot more option. Leader’s back tracking speedy filly Real Deluxe looks likely? SAXON JEWEL put the writing on the wall on debut and drops 2.5kg into a 3 year old maiden. Love the way she attacked the line. RIVER ANGEL won her back straight trial with some authority. MIGHTY HOSANNA trialled behind impressive debut winner All Grunt.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet – AMAROO STAR WIN

RACE 4 

ARCADIA PARK rans second on debut behind Bondi Bay and then when running into that same galloper on a Saturday was extremely luckless. There was never going to be a run for Troy Turner between horses so he had to duck back inside and things only got uglier. Pike goes on, goes to a maiden and expect he’ll be very popular with punters. MISS WALL STREET attacked the line well first-up and won’t be a maiden much longer. JACKPOT BINGO has shown glimpses at trials recently. ROO LORD tends to get back in his races regardless of where he’s drawn.

Numbers: 15 – 8 – 16 – 1

Suggested Bet – ARCADIA PARK WIN

RACE 5

ALL VITAL continues to race well having finished third to talented types including No Brainer, Famous Dain/Trio and then Drinks On Me/On The Mark. Just needs to overcome the tricky draw but Graeme Ballantyne’s horses go super off a month between runs on the fresher side so willing to roll the dice. IMAROCK GOD is coming off really wet tracks and might be able to nearly lead this event. SNIPPY SEAN got a fair way back first-up over 1200m and was doing his best work late. Like the way he hit the line. HARLEQUIN PRANCER is a long time maiden but has returned in career best form.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 15 – 10

Suggested Bet – ALL VITAL WIN

RACE 6

PIN DEEP was far too quick for them first-up down the 1000m straight at Pinjarra. Steps up into a C3 but after the ZJP claim carries the same weight and if he can run out a strong 1100m then he should be hard to beat again. Thriving on being ridden for pure speed. JAZ SESSION ran really well behind Toropa two back and then found herself hitting the front on straightening in a 1300. This looks a nice set up for her. BLUE CAN TALK brings X-Factor. Some of her Esperance wins were elite visually and against the clock. BISECTOR tries hard.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – PIN DEEP WIN

RACE 7

IHSKUR won her maiden in style and then went very close to winning a C3 at her second-up run at Pinjarra. Never in the right spot last start and didn’t get the run into the race that she needed. Back to a C1 looks the right move. DARK LOOKS swept to the front last start and looked home for all money before she lay inwards back to the ‘wrong’ part of the track and was swamped late. She’s back in grade, she’s got a gear change and she’s knocking on the door. Will it open? FAMOUS DAIN raced like he wanted a mile last start. WHY ME is better than he produced first-up.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – ISHKUR WIN

RACE 8

HARBIN transfers to Donna Riordan who has a great first-up strike rate/POT profile as a trainer. Last 750 days Donna has produced 38 horses first-up (excluding debutantes) for 5 winners at 13% strike rate, but at a far more impressive 37.5% POT. The first two WA runs of his gelding were excellent and he was very well backed in both. Respect. LINDENS GOLD is another resuming who has a love for Northam and maps well. FORTUNE’S LUCK is having her 16th run of the prep but continues to chase hard. HE’SGOTWINGS a watch for the new stable, especially with Pike.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – HARBIN WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,3,4,15,16

1,5,6

1,2,4,5

1,2,4,5,6

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