Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BONJOY sets out on a 4-peat mission as she continues to burst her way brilliantly through the grades. She’s gone from a 0MWLY to a Westspeed to a 66+ and now onto a 71+ and she looks like she’s got plenty more wins in store. Compressed weight scale, small field, inside draw and the best turn of foot in the race. She’ll be very hard to hold out late. MATERIAL WITNESS was terrorised last weekend and yet still managed to somehow run fifth. He’s a winner off 7 days, he’s down to 56kg and on paper he looks like being left alone this weekend. Big respect. BRUCE ALMIGHTY can box seat on the back of Material Witness. BIRDIEAGLE looks like the breeze horse but excels off the back-up.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – BONJOY WIN

RACE 2

ANGEL’S IMPACT has the runs on the board and is the proven commodity in a race where the majority of those who are in the market are on debut or returning. His fresh run in the 2 year old Magic Millions behind Big Shots and Madhi Girl was excellent and he should only take benefit from that outing. Will need a touch of luck from the awkward draw but if he can find a back to follow he’ll be hard to hold out late. BUSTLING has impressed at trials. Two trials back he wore blinkers and over-raced. Last trial he extended nicely and Brad Parnham has elected to ride him over Timeless Gem. TIMELESS GEM looked good at Lark Hill and is a great pick-up ride for Joey Azzopardi. KEEP ITA MYSTERY was good over 400m. Take on trust.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – ANGEL’S IMPACT WIN

RACE 3

YARRALEA doesn’t win out of turn but this looks a really suitable assignment for her. Between Full Of Merit, Castillo Del Lago, Boab Boy, Wojtek and even Lucky Heart they’ll roll along throughout and she can park in behind and track the speed. Doesn’t spend a penny in running and drops back from a 66+ into a 58+ as well as partnering with a senior rider. This looks the right set up for her. FULL OF MERIT is not a one trick pony. She doesn’t have to lead to win but in an ideal world she would leave cleanly enough to keep the fence as an option early. Does her best racing off 5 – 6 weeks. MISS INTENTION probably wants further but can sprint well fresh. FORTUNE’S LUCK improves off a moderate display at Geraldton.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – YARRALEA WIN

RACE 4

LEXINGTON CITY looks a great eachway bet in a race with a tonne of speed. Sonoftheboss, Ginnivan, Golden Fighter and Norich are drawn in barrier 2, 4, 5 & 7 and so Luke Campbell and Lexington City can park and ride the speed and try to grab them late. 9 of his last 10 outings have been in higher grade including two starts ago when he missed by a half head in a 66+ with half a kilo more than he carries here. Great placement, good map, right price. SONOFTHEBOSS and GINNIVAN are both speedsters. Interesting to see whether they both start come race day – they’re different sets of connections but it’s unlike Jim Taylor to start multiple runners in the same race. Especially when they’re the same type of animal. MADAM KISSES has similar form to Lexington City and there’s not much between them ability wise.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – LEXINGTON CITY EACHWAY

RACE 5

SUPPORTIVE has turned into a brilliantly consistent mare who has seldom run a bad race in her entire career. She’s facing her acid test in a 66+ but she’s down to 56kg, she proved last start that she doesn’t need to race on top of the speed to go well and from barrier 5 it gives Brad Parnham options. They’ll fly along behind free wheeling leader Indie Ruler and she can present right place, right time at an eachway quote. INDIE RULER is fast. Is wayward. Is enigmatic. Is in career best form. He can wobble up the home straight but Jade McNaught allows him to do his own thing and it’s paying dividends. MY DILEMMA has been screaming out for 1200m. If they can make ground, watch her late. VAMPI AT PLAY won well last start. Not yet convinced she’s an Ascot horse.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet – SUPPORTIVE EACHWAY

RACE 6

OLY’S CHOICE was the biggest run you’ll see at Pinjarra all season last start. He sat no better than three and four deep the trip in a race where they’ve stopped the clock 6L faster than 72+ average. He did all the work in a fast run race and somehow was still there in the finish. He’s flying – but he’s drawn in no man’s land again? Need eachway to entertain him but we’re getting it. SAPPHIRE STREET can peel off a very sharp L600. If she landed on the back of an Oly’s Choice or a Bleecker Street she’s hard to hold out. BLEECKER STREET is also drawn sticky but if he can find a spot he’ll measure up at this level. MEMORY PARADE is a tough filly who has only 53.5kg on her back. She’ll roll forward and make her own luck.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 8 – 12

Suggested Bet – OLY’S CHOICE EACHWAY

RACE 7

RUSSIAN TO THE BAR and A LOT OF GOOD MEN went head to head in the Challenge Stakes over 1500m and there was 1L between them on the line. In the Lex Piper there’s an extra 100m, there’s a 2kg weight swing in favour of A Lot Of Good Men and there’s very little tempo on paper. Makes for a fascinating tactical contest and can’t wait to see whether Paul Harvey goes straight back or he kicks the colt out and rides him like the best horse in the race. Toss of the coin. COSMIC CRUSADER is first-up over 1600m and the way he trialled he likely lands in a forward position. AUTUMN REBEL can bounce back out of a disappointing display at Bunbury in an unsuitable sit and sprint.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – A LOT OF GOOD MEN WIN

Same Race Multi – Russian To The Bar (Top 3) + A Lot Of Good Men (Top 3) + Cosmic Crusader (Top 4)

The market and the SWP conditions probably suggest that Russian To The Bar and A Lot Of Good Men likely run the quinella, however, in a race without any obvious speed or leader there’s a chance that the returning Cosmic Crusader (who is very handy himself) gets the run of the race over the top of the speed and can split them. So we’ll back both Top 3 and Cosmic Crusader Top 4 as the cherry on top.

RACE 8

OWN THE QUEEN has won two from three so far and looks to have a lot more upside and natural ability than many of her rivals. She’s new, she’s green but she’s beaten up on the older horses in a C3 last start and if Troy Turner can get her to settle in the run she looks like she’ll eat up 1800m. Hard to look past her and the $3.50+ price point looks quite appealing. SO NATAYA is still a maiden filly but both of her runs have been super. Weaved a late passage through on debut and then sat three deep the trip no cover last start when brave into third. She’s a live chance. QUEEN NARDI at least ticks the 1600-1800m box and don’t discount the country form (think Constant Dreaming). STARATING can track up in behind them and has point to point acceleration.

Numbers: 3 – 10 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – OWN THE QUEEN WIN

RACE 9

ALASKAN is a lightly raced 3 year old who is the full brother to WATC Derby winner Alaskan God and it looks like Neville Parnham is plotting a path towards a tilt at the JC Roberts (1800), Melvista (2200) and WATC Derby (2400) over the next 6 weeks. Last start winner in the same grade, same distance and against very similar opposition (in fact meets the runner-up Filthy Habits 0.5kg better at the weights for running past him!). Hard to knock. FILTHY HABITS has backed up three times and placed on two of those occasions. He’s rock hard fit and he parks on the speed. ICEBERGS won well against the older horses in a C3 in slick time. BEATS OF WAR did everything wrong last start – complete forgive.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 12 – 1

Suggested Bet – ALASKAN WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,3,4,7,8,10,12

1,2,5

3,10

1,5,8,11,12

Market Market



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