Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DON’T TRUST JUDAS went around $1.70 last start and on face value was pretty plain beaten 4L, however, Kisses From Kelly did come out and run a ripper last Saturday in a 60+ Graduation to make the effort look a little more respectable. This is not a deep race and hopefully with a set of winkers on and coming back to 1400m we can see him return to his best. MASTER ALEX didn’t look to run out 1650 last start. Loomed and peaked over the last 150m. KELORA is going better than numerical form suggests and is ready to pinch one. JARMAN doesn’t win out of turn but he gets a soft run.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – DON’T TRUST JUDAS WIN

RACE 2

RULELEE looks like she will get every chance from the ideal gate. Last start she lobbed 1×1 and was able to get the better of them late and now she’s drawn to get a near identical run in transit following Call Again and Success Play into the race. Runs for CJP and should get every chance to go back to back. ENTICING beat her home behind Seminole Brave and meets her better at the weights. Brad Parnham picks up the ride since the race was transferred from Wednesday. SUCCESS PLAY likely has to park outside of CALL AGAIN and they control the speed from the front.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – RULELEE WIN

RACE 3

OUR NORMAN couldn’t sneak away from them last start and was found wanting late, however, he should be able to bounce out from barrier 1 in the small field and turn this into a sit and sprint to suit himself. Expect that he’ll get things cheap in the first half of the race and then look to up tempo from the 800 and get them all chasing. VILLEINS zigged when Candlelight Supper zagged last start and in the end that’s probably the difference between winning and losing. CANDLELIGHT SUPPER got the run through them last start and capitalized. No reason why she can’t win again. SOLDANELLE gets out to staying trip for the first time in WA/Australia and should be peaking third-up.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – OUR NORMAN WIN

RACE 4 

RULER ROCKET was narrowly defeated by Paddy’s Flyin’ first-up at 1000 after taking a sit leader’s back and then pushing his way into the clear on straightening. Paddy’s Flyin’ came out off the 7-day back-up and was plunged in betting when scoring another impressive last to first victory. Gets out to 1200m and can slide across to park in the breeze outside Samaria. Both career wins are second-up and hopefully that trend can continue. SEDUCE ME resumes from a long spell. Trial was soft behind Little Silver and her 3-year-old form from 2022 is very good for this grade. PATRON OF KINGS is undefeated at trials and races. Just a minor query that Aquapishe got within a length of him late last start and that he’s still very new and raw. PLATINUM CLASS tries hard.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet – RULER ROCKET WIN

RACE 5

ROYAL TORONADO got the job done in style at Northam when really well supported in betting. He maps to get a gun run here tracking into the race behind a genuine tempo and he looks like he’ll only get better with racing, and potentially in time even more ground. One of many, many winning hopes. TWAIN’S ANGEL dominated moderate maiden opposition on debut with 51.5kg but she did run the clock. 1:11:61 is sharp on any surface. Must reproduce at 1300m. ONLY US went around $151 on debut but got to the line as well as anything behind Lord Lala/Dialing/Augment. ON PATROL will need an ounce of luck from three back the fence.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet – ROYAL TORONADO WIN

RACE 6

LITTLE SILVER should get a lovely run into the race from barrier 1. He’s quick enough to lead in her own right but expect that he’ll likely end up taking a sit on speed pair Cross Statement and Double Spice who should bring him right into the home straight. Loved his barrier trial and Shaun McGruddy rides the box seat brilliantly. BRAVE VENTURE is no slouch and provided he can hold a half decent spot midfield he’ll take plenty of beating. Finished in the top 2 at 5 of 6 starts and is a proven weight carrier and a proven fresh horse. Looked good at trials. CELEBRITY PRINCE should get a similar run to first-up when running home strongly behind Berbere. BECALOTTI is a really nice mare but she’s drawn a lemon.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – LITTLE SILVER EACHWAY

RACE 7

POMPEY jumps off the page with William Pike going on for the first time in the preparation. Finished second to the in form Sisu Warrior two starts back when working out deep throughout and then finished fourth behind Aztec Ruler in a race where they really turned the speed on in the early and middle stages. Senior on and out to a mile. Looks a good set up. CASH AWAY looms as the obvious danger on paper. He’s now proven himself at a mile, he’s a 7 day back-up specialist but he’s yet to really excel for the apprentices. Great placement though. TALLANGATTA is a model of consistency. MEGAZONE maps well.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – POMPEY WIN

RACE 8

THOMAS MAGNUM did enough first-up to suggest that from a better barrier he would be going close to turn the tables on Rumour Says and Sockoff second-up. Got to the line in a L600 of 33.04 and he can’t really go any quicker than that. Will need to navigate a passage through traffic at some stage but he’s got a sharp turn of foot if the gaps do appear. RUMOUR SAYS put the writing on the wall first-up behind Swim Through and then got the job done second-up. Drawn to get a near identical run in transit here. SOCKOFF will pinch a race like this from the front soon. SWEAR TO GOD returns a gelding and follows Sockoff’s every move.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – THOMAS MAGNUM EACHWAY

RACE 9

LAQUETTA’S GIFT was one of the biggest runs in defeat this Belmont season second-up behind Gift Of The Heart. As much as it was a ‘be on me next start’ kind of effort, she’s going to have to do it from the same spot considering she’s drawn barrier 10 of 11? Would need eachway to entertain backing her. FLY AWAY HOME is going better than numerical form and can improve on the back-up. MAMA TEMBU broke through last start for a deserved win and enjoys a soft run. GIFT OF THE HEART should again roll to the top and control the tempo of the race. Looks to pinch it on straightening.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – LAQUETTA’S GIFT EACHWAY

RACE 10

TADWEER didn’t have a lot go his way last start after meeting with really strong betting support. He bounded away early, couldn’t really find a back to follow, made a move pre-bend and then faded out of contention to finish a lacklustre seventh. Drawn a much better barrier here to park lengths closer in the run. Looks a very similar set up to the day he beat Acromantula and Burnya To Survive at 1200 at Ascot. ROKANORI was one of the replay runs of the race in the Jolly Beggar and now has William Pike going on from a soft draw. BABY PARIS had everything go wrong first-up yet still ran really well. MOOD SWINGS is suited to a high speed, high pressure race.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – TADWEER EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Tadweer (Top 4) + Rokanori (Top 4)

Tadweer had nothing go right for him last start but here he steps out to 1200m and is drawn to get a much better run in transit. No surprise to see him a sharp improver in what looks a high speed contest and a very open and even affair. Rokanori will go round favourite after an eye-catching run at 1000m and with Pike going on. Both Top 4 in a race with a lot of chances.

RACE 11

PONYO was a massive query at 1400m last start but to her credit she ran it out well. She sat close handy to a solid tempo, gave a kick and comfortably accounted for all rivals except the highly progressive Aztec Ruler. Maps to get a really nice run behind the speed. Hard to knock. MAGNIFICENT ANDY announced himself as a genuine Hannans Handicap contender with a fast finishing second behind subsequent winner Red Fifty Three first-up. Second-up the Bar Plates (Front) go on and he’s drawn barrier 10 of 10. Hoping we can wait one more before getting involved. CATCH THESE HANDS and KNOT SECRET are both horses capable of continuing their way through the grades this campaign.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – PONYO WIN

Quaddie (Race 8 – 11)

1,2,4,5

1,2,4,5,7,8

1,3,5,8,10,11

4,7

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