Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

NO DICE has been given a freshen up of 7 weeks between runs and comes back to 1000m. She was a flashing third behind Leica Jaguar and Ultimate Command (who she meets 6kg better) first-up over 1000 back at Ascot on 8 April. She’s got a short, sharp burst of acceleration suited to being tucked away in behind speed horses and presented at the perfect time. Gets those conditions here by the looks. VOGUE’S CHOICE is a handy mare for Westspeed grade and gets a gun run. GINGER JONES has shades re-applied and was only run down late behind Colossal and co in a 66+ last start. REQUISTION has been going super on a track that historically he has struggled on.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – NO DICE WIN

RACE 2

PREMIUM CHOICE is really well placed by Tony Triscari. Four starts ago he won a 72+ 1000 at Ascot beating Bitofmerit and since then he’s contested another 3x 72+ races. He resumed last weekend when a luckless third behind Gemma’s Son, Ghost Who Walks and Puli. Not big on a 7 day back-up first-up to second-up but it’s hard to ignore how well suited he is in this grade. Trusting Tony. OLGA LOUISA reunites with Jason Whiting and will lead on her ear. She drops 2kg and will be in front for a long way. CASH AWAY was a late scratching last weekend. Could be a blessing in disguise because like Premium Choice he’s lobbed a lovely little 66+ 1000. IMPRUDENT went around 100-1 first-up and ran a blinder.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – PREMIUM CHOICE WIN

RACE 3

GUARDING HEAVEN was scratched on Wednesday to save for this. With Brad Parnham on holiday riding duties have been handed to Victoria Corver who brings the weight right down to 51kg. Never ideal losing a senior but she looks a relatively easy filly to steer and she meets A Lot Of Good Men 3kg better for finishing a head behind him last start. Maps to get a gun run and goes around eachway. A LOT OF GOOD MEN has the blinkers ripped straight off again. His fresh effort was solid and he’s far better suited out to 1200. RED SQUARE is 2 from 2 undefeated and looks like he’ll measure up in Saturday grade. KHUTOS trialled super and looks a talent.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – GUARDING HEAVEN EACHWAY

RACE 4 

TOO DARDY is a very nice animal in the making. His fresh run behind Berbere was luckless yet impressive and his second-up win looked like it was going to be the same at the 150 before he got out and around heels and let rip with a barnstorming finish. Looking for 1200m, drawn to sneak up along the inside and then gaps should appear when Universal Flair rolls up the track. Think he can make his way through the grades. UNIVERSAL FLAIR is a perennially under-rated filly. She’s thriving on winter racing and she loves to jump and run. SALOON BAR and GAGE ROADS are both more than capable gallopers resuming off impressive trial wins.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY WIN

RACE 5

DUCHESS OF GOSSIP could not have done any more last start. She was progressive from a lowly C1 into a 60+ Graduation and she was posted three-deep the trip and pulled Brad Parnham out of the saddle from the 600 as she forced his hand and made her sweeping move for home. Was left a sitting duck but to her credit was brave when War Gem loomed up outside of her. On paper it looks as though the option is there for Pike to roll forward if he wanted. She’s a talented filly worth following. COMIC HERO is another 3 year old who looks highly progressive. He ran third behind Berbere and Too Dardy on debut. That’s hot form. MISS DRAKOVA looks far better suited at 6 furlongs and backs up off another quality effort. NYET ran really well last start.

Numbers: 9 – 8 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet – DUCHESS OF GOSSIP WIN

RACE 6

OUTSPOKEN LAD looked like he was working towards a win and then skipped right away from them late in a Westspeed Mile last start. Not big on following the Westspeed Platinum form but the way he’s racing he looks like he’s wanting this sort of trip and he did finished second to Black Fantasy in the 2022 Aquanita Stakes. In an open race he’s an eachway quote and he’ll park himself over the speed and enjoy a map advantage over main rivals who are backmarkers. QUEEN ALINA finished third behind Fear The Wind and Sluice Box in the Rogan Josh Stakes. WFA back to 84+ back to 66+. The timing is right for her to break through and win one. THE DOMINICAN showed staying potential last start. They walked and he got caught flat footed. FLOWER IN THE WIND is going well.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 16 – 15

Suggested Bet – OUTSPOKEN LAD EACHWAY

RACE 7

VITALIZE is well placed by Neville Parnham on the 7 day back-up. Her last 7 have been in higher grade, she’s a 2x winner in this grade previously, she’s a 2x 7-day back-up winner and she’s a proven weight carrier. Finally draws a gate and provided she can hold a spot in running she could be a big improver at juicy odds. GROUND BRAKER looks just about ready to run a race. He’s backing up off a solid effort into third behind Boots Like Bruce and Bigdayonit in a race where they made absolutely no ground. He’ll keep whacking away no matter how the race is run and is a previous 7 day winner. RARE ENCOUNTER backs up off a brave effort last week when she towed the field to Cheerful Moment. Can go on with it. ALLEZ ALLEZ was desperately unlucky last start.

Numbers: 2 – 12 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – VITALIZE EACHWAY

RACE 8

NERODIO is remarkably 6 from 6 undefeated over the Belmont 1000. He is also a brilliant wet tracker and has trialled up like he’s somewhere near his brilliant best. Conceding a racefit and in form mare like Real Danger 6.5kg is no at easy task by any stretch but if he sees daylight in the straight, he can really ping. Exciting clash. REAL DANGER dips her toes into Black Type company for the first time and the way she’s going you’d be brave to suggest she won’t measure up. GHOST WHO WALKS deserves a go. He drops 6kg on the 7 day back-up and is racing brilliantly. COMES A TIME has a really awkward gate.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – NERODIO WIN

Same Race Multi – Nerodio (Top 3) + Real Danger (Top 3)

Nerodio resumes off the back of two impressive trials. He has 60.5kg but the weight is offset by drawing barrier 1. He is remarkably 6 from 6 undefeated over the Belmont 1000 and looks hard to hold out with even luck. Real Danger has been a wonderful find for the new stable. She’s had two runs for Danny Morton and won both of them.

RACE 9

BITOFMERIT has to tick the 1400m box – that’s the unknown. His win last start was visually as good as it gets – that’s the reality. Michael Campbell has always been publicly adamant that his star galloper would get out to a mile with the right preparation so we’re going to trust in his judgement and suggest that 1400 holds no fears. If he can reproduce anywhere near his same L600 over the distance he’ll be extremely hard to hold out. FLYING MISSILE is absolutely airborne. These 78+ races where she gets a senior are perfect for her. Big danger. VAST ART comes into this 5 weeks between runs after winning the Raconteur. Brings real intrigue. VANE TEMPEST carried 60kg to victory last start and was running away from them late.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 16 – 6

Suggested Bet – BITOFMERIT WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,4,6,7,15,16

2,4,5,12

1,7,9

6,8,10,15,16

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