Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 12

Posted on June 3, 2023June 3, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Melbourne v Carlton, MCG, 5.50pm

Carlton coach Michael Voss and his players were relieved to see the back of May. The Blues slid not only from top-four reckoning, but outside the top eight with losses in all four matches last month — against Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and Sydney.

Unfortunately, June doesn’t look like it is going to start any better. The Blues front up to Melbourne, who despite being short of their best, are still in the premiership race and attack this contest from within the top eight.

Melbourne’s last-round defeat to Fremantle was disappointing and Simon Goodwin knows another loss here will leave his side on somewhat shaky ground ahead of the King’s Birthday tussle with a red-hot Collingwood next round.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 1-39 points

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SATURDAY

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 11.45am

The Port Adelaide premiership surge shows no signs of abating. In what was a critical weekend for Ken Hinkley’s men, the Power overcame Richmond at the MCG the same day as Brisbane lost to Adelaide.

Those results leave the Power in second position and prime position from which to launch a top-two assault that guarantees two home finals. Hawthorn arrive in the City of Churches full of confidence after beating St Kilda, but will be without suspended skipper James Sicily.

His absence after a performance for the ages leaves the Hawks seriously undermanned in an area of the ground where Port can be extremely potent when they decide to flex their muscles.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win by 25 points or more

West Coast v Collingwood, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

How West Coast upset Collingwood in Melbourne in the early part of last year remains one of the great mysteries of 2022. The Eagles won only one other match for the year and Collingwood exited the competition at the preliminary final stage at the hands of Sydney.

There will not be a repeat of that boilover here. Though you could argue Collingwood have come off a peg in regards to their form of late, they are light years ahead of the Eagles in all areas.

The prospect of a fine afternoon and perfect surface should only enhance the Magpies’ skills and system in a round where Dom Sheed celebrates his 150th appearance.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win by 40 points or more

Western Bulldogs v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

Geelong have enjoyed a good recent run against the Western Bulldogs. It is a sequence Cats coach Chris Scott could find himself latching on to as the premiers’ flag defence teeters.

A loss at home to GWS last Saturday night reinforced Geelong’s vulnerability and there is the very real prospect they boast a 5-7 record at the completion of this match. For that to occur though, the Bulldogs themselves need to be better than they were in round 11.

Having enjoyed an excellent patch of form, the Bulldogs failed to defend adequately against Gold Coast. Expect a tweak there and the return from injury of Adam Treloar will be timely.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

Gold Coast v Adelaide, TIO Stadium, 5.30pm

Some, including John Worsfold, dispute the notion of an “eight-point game”. That’s their prerogative. We don’t see it the same way and as such, this is as genuine an eight-point match as you will get.

At 5-6, Gold Coast sit outside the top eight. At 6-5, Adelaide sit inside the top eight and are seemingly destined for a return to finals. If the Crows win here, their claims will be strengthened whereas the Suns will be virtually extinguished.

The Suns are entitled to be confident though. They were slick against the Western Bulldogs in the Top End last weekend, no mean feat given the conditions. Can Adelaide make the necessary adjustment in the space of six days after beating Brisbane?

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

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SUNDAY

GWS v Richmond, Giants Stadium, 11.10am

Tim Taranto makes his return to western Sydney in excellent nick. He is probably leading the Tigers’ best and fairest count, vindicating the club’s decision to lure him south on a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract.

However, he would have envisaged that this round-12 match-up provided Richmond with an opportunity to bolster their finals aspirations. That is not the case. The Tigers are below the Giants on the ladder and preparing for game two without Damien Hardwick.

Unsurprisingly, the Giants are being superbly led by Toby Greene. His ability to influence games week after week has him in the elite category and being touted as a possible All-Australian captain. He represents Richmon’s biggest threat.

VERDICT: GWS to win

Essendon v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

This is a sterner test than the one Essendon passed with flying colours last Saturday night. But having held their own in a brutal 10-week stretch to open 2023, the Bombers should be backing up the win over West Coast with a win against 17th-placed North Melbourne.

Bombers coach Brad Scott understands what makes North as a club tick and he knows full well they are a far more formidable outfit at Marvel Stadium than anywhere else.

But if Essendon move the ball with the efficiency they did at stages last weekend on a more consistent basis, this game should be put to bed reasonably early.

VERDICT: Essendon to win by 25 points or more

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