Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on April 27, 2023April 27, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

LEICA JAGUAR has turned the clock back in the last month. He didn’t win a race for 812 days and now has put back to back wins together, same track, same distance, same grade and against vastly similar opposition. He beat home stablemate (and main danger) Ultimate Command last start by half a length and meets her 1.5kg better at the weights for beating her home. Parks one out and one back and looks a great chance of notching a hattrick. ULTIMATE COMMAND has since gone back to midweek company and toyed with moderate opposition. Parks in the breeze again. GLASGOW GIRL can give plenty of cheek from out in front (if she jumps). YOYO’S ran into an in form galloper on the Goldfields last start.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – LEICA JAGUAR WIN

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RACE 2

BUSTLER is extremely well placed back into a 72+. Since winning the Fairetha Stakes in November he has had four starts: second to Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas, fifth beaten 2L at WFA in the Northerly Stakes and then this preparation a WFA Roma Cup and a WFA Tabtouch The Quokka. Far better suited at 1400m, drops back into a ratings race and after the claim carries only 58kg. Maps to park on the back of Excellent Dream and Miss Field and will be understandably popular. EXCELLENT DREAM looks like he’ll get things cheaply out in front. Hasn’t won a race for a long while but has finished third in a Hannans leading. BLAZING TYCOON was a late race change across from the 60+ 1400. Small field suits. MISS FIELD is a tough mare on her day.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – BUSTLER WIN

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RACE 3

EX SPORT GIRL just looked a little run off her feet last start when breezing outside of Deep Envy. Got caught a little flat footed when the sprint really went on cornering for home but kept coming to the line under vigorous riding. Think she’s better suited to 1200m and may just sneak eachway in an even line-up. POMPEY has been a work in progress. Looks like he’s finally starting to figure out what it’s all about and the win up the cutaway last start may have provided a perfect educational experience. COSMOPOLITAN GIRL is flying but 1200m is about her limit and the draw is difficult to navigate. DEEP ENVY took a big step from a C1 to a 3 year old 62+ and won well.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – EX SPORT GIRL EACHWAY

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RACE 4

BRAVE VENTURE trialled back on 3 April and then was nominated, accepted and scratched from a race on 15 April with near-fore hoof soreness. Not the ideal way to start a preparation but he’s undeniably talented and while he’s drawn wide and likely to get back he has a powerful turn of acceleration. Plenty of upside and wins ahead for him. CATALPA may be short of his best distance on paper but it’s hard to ignore just how good his trial was without blinkers. More than matched motors with 78+ sprinters Itsarayday and Panzdown. Very respectful. TREVERN was over a month between runs last start and is better than that. MICHELADA can tuck in behind and enjoy a good run.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – BRAVE VENTURE WIN

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RACE 5

CAN’T BE DONE sneaks under the radar here. He was in the same 78+ 1000 as It’sarayday and Panzdown on 12 November and there was nothing between them at all. He’s likely to open up and go around double figures and yet was a first-up winner in WA last preparation off 147 days without a trial. Identical day spacing here. Great race this and he’s one of many hopes. SNOWDOME has finally returned to his gritty best. He will look for the top and gives a big kick on straightening. IT’SARAYDAY is a fresh beast. Loved his trial and the fact Simon Miller calls on the State’s best sit and sprinter rider in William Pike. PANZDOWN is dangerous late off a hot tempo.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – CAN’T BE DONE EACHWAY

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RACE 6

STATE OF POWER was enormous at her return to racing. She parked three deep no cover and went down fighting beaten half a length by Snowdome, Spin The Knife and Savage One. She got past Man Crush in the run to the post who was inside of her racing in the breeze. She meets him half a kilo better at the weights after Luke Campbell’s claim and can sit parked on him and Land Of Valens. Great set up for her. MAN CRUSH likely looks to hold the top ahead of Land Of Valens. That’s a big difference for a horse like him to find the fence. POT SHOT gets weight relief taking on the older horses. THOMAS MAGNUM is suited to three deep cover. Rather draw out than in with him.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet – STATE OF POWER WIN

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RACE 7

KNOT SECRET is a last start winner in a 66+ 1400. He and He’s Gold ran the quinella in that race but with an extra 200m it looks more into Knot Secret’s favour than it does for He’s Gold. Likely lands one out and one back from the ideal draw and a soft economical run like that offsets the fact he has to lump a full 60kg. Great chance to go back to back. MAHALEO backs up off 7 days after running second to a highly in form No Change in 72+ grade. Back in grade, backing up and Pike retaining the ride. Logical danger. HE’S GOLD is on trial at a mile. Tough animal. SEESSIONS PEAK won well last start in a Westspeed Platinum. This is tougher and the gate hurts.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – KNOT SECRET WIN

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RACE 8

SUPER SMINK will go around one of the shortest priced WA Sires’ Produce Stakes favourites in recent history. Given her emphatic 2L victory in the Karrakatta Plate, coupled with the fact that the second and third horses Live To Tell and Ripcord don’t make their way to the Sires as well as the Karrakatta Plate being run 3L faster than average all point to her jumping somewhere around $1.40. She’s a star. MORE SPECIAL can kick through to hold the top and might get things cheaply. WILEY GIRL and BRAVE STRIKE never gave up the chase in the Karrakatta. Just hard to see anything turning the tables on Super Smink.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – SUPER SMINK WIN

Same Race Multi – Super Smink (Win) + Brave Strike (Top 4)

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RACE 9

CLASSIC ENCOUNTER is one of the most intriguing gallopers on the program and one of the hardest to line up. She’s coming out of a Class One win at Geraldton and yet given the way that she won and the fact it’s Pike in the last riding for Peters Investments you can all but guarantee she’ll jump a well-supported favourite. Going to back her in on promise and progression. HEART OF COEUR ran well first-up in a 66+, drops in grade and usually goes even better second-up. MOJO RHYTHM was able to gobble them up fresh off the back of a very slow tempo. That’s the sign of a horse who can go through the grades. LEGACY OF TARA loomed large second-up but blew out late. She can slide across to breeze again.

Numbers: 11 – 4 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – CLASSIC ENCOUNTER WIN

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3

1,5

6

1,4,5,8,10,11,12

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