Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SIR MAMBO has recaptured his best since joining the stables of Summer Dickson. Since the move he’s had 6 starts which has produced a dominant 1.5L win (this track, distance and grade over a subsequent winner In Here’s Dreaming) and four minor placings, including behind the stablemate Moi Choux last start in a 66+. He’s fit, he’s tough and he races right over the speed. If he parks up outside of Some Sort in running he’ll loom large on straightening. LEICA JAGUAR hasn’t won a race for 812 days but his recent efforts have all been sound. He was only half a length off Sir Mambo in the 66+ won by Moi Choux two starts ago and gets Chris Parnham back on. SOME SORT is getting closer. He’ll pinch one soon. SILKINIZE sits back and has last crack.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – SIR MAMBO WIN

RACE 2

MOUNTAIN ASH has come a long way this preparation. When he joined Danny Morton’s yard in May 2022 he was only the winner of a Geraldton C2. He went to Broome and had six starts on the dirt which only produced another C2 victory. Since returning this campaign they’ve figured out how to ride him: for speed. He broke their hearts in a 1600m Westspeed (4L faster than average) and backed it up 7 days later in a 60+ Graduation when run down late by Currimundi (3.5L faster than average). He will find the top and try to sneak away from them at the 600. FRIARESQUE hasn’t won a race for 812 days (won same day as Leica Jaguar, how about that!) but his two runs back suggest there’s another just around the corner for the veteran. Liz Strempel deliberately spaces his runs with great effect. MINUS LOOKS can stalk Mountain Ash everywhere he goes. BEAT THE BRO should have finshed closer last week.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – MOUNTAIN ASH WIN

RACE 3

SUPERSESSION is starting to build an imposing record. Enormous on debut behind Renato when savaging the line from an impossible position on straightening. From then he’s won a 1200m maiden at $1.60 and back to back 60+ Graduations against the older horses. Once he hits top speed he really runs through the line and the step back to 1200m looks ideal. Think Leniency is pretty sharp so he’ll need to be at his best again with 59kg but it’s hard to ignore the way he’s going and the exciting future ahead of him. LENIENCY was beaten a nose on debut with 59kg on a Heavy10. He then won back to back races before heading to the paddock. His recent trial suggests he’s in for another very good campaign. Imagine he looks for the breeze outside of Cosmopolitan Girl. PRAWNS ELEVEN was below his best last start. MALKAR PINDARI enjoys a soft run along the fence.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – SUPERSESSION WIN

RACE 4

Every single horse in this field except Tena Koutou met last start in a 72+ 1600m won by BIRDIEAGLE. He concedes various weight swings to his rivals but most importantly half a kilo to Weaponson and 2kg to Ciscojoe. Thinking that from the ideal alley that with an extra 200m and an extra 2kg that CISCOJOE can go close to turning the tables. Pat Carbery should be able to follow Weaponson in the run and keep Brad Parnham and Birdieagle in his sights throughout. Emerging staying type and looks a good race for him. BIRDIEAGLE was too big and powerful for them last start. Sat in the breeze in a race run 4.5L faster than average and was simply too tough late. He seems to be getting better with racing. WEAPONSON navigates unchartered territory stepping out to 1800m. Hard to knock his recent form. ROMAN FLIRT showed something last start.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – CISCOJOE WIN

RACE 5

TOP OF THE POPS is a very talented 3 year old. He went four from four undefeated as a 2 year old and then was only seen once over the Carnival when resuming in the 3 year old Classic over 1000m and charging to the line beaten 1.5L by Snowdome. He almost broke 33 seconds L600 that day in a blistering return and has been tuned up for this with a couple of soft trials (without blinkers). Shades on race day and he is extremely well placed into a 66+. MOI CHOUX goes round an eachway quote every time he goes to the races and runs an eachway race every time he steps out. Model of consistency and a proven weight carrier. THOMAS MAGNUM and MANTELLI both come through the same race behind Supersession. They’re both First 4 players with weight off their backs.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – TOP OF THE POPS WIN

RACE 6

AWESOME CHATTER finished third behind Mountain Ash and Birdieagle two starts ago in what has turned into an excellent form reference (especially for a Westspeed Platinum). He went to Pinjarra last start and was too strong for them scoring a relatively soft win late. Think he’s turned a corner and since they’ve ridden him conservatively, he’s gone to another level. Parks midfield and works through his gears into the race. FEAR THE WIND put the writing on the wall last start behind Currimundi and Mountain Ash. Right form and right map. WEE RIPPER chased home Awesome Chatter last start. Drawn hurts. ELAFELLA hasn’t fired yet this preparation but he can lead this.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – AWESOME CHATTER WIN

RACE 7

Simon Miller has won 7 of the last 12 Supremacy Stakes. In more recent times: Whispering Brook (2016), Seannie (2017), Lady Cosmology (2018), Liwa (2021) and Amelia’s Jewel (2022). Given his two prnong attack with LIVE TO TELL and PROSPECTOR’S PICK you’d be a brave man to suggest he won’t have his name etched on the trophy again. LIVE TO TELL is the All-In favourite for the Karrakatta Plate and while defeated on debut is the only horse in WA to have gone close to matching motors with Brave Halo to date. She’s drawn the outside barrier and yet is still likely to go round close to odds on. Risky betting proposition but exciting viewing proposition. PROSPECTOR’S PICK has won both of his barrier trials by margins. He looks a natural jump and run type. Logical danger. SHELL BELL is one tough filly who will keep coming. BONDI BUBBLES trialled well back in October.

Numbers: 9 – 7 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – LIVE TO TELL WIN

Same Race Multi – Live To Tell (Top 2) + Prospector’s Pick (Top 2)

RACE 8 

RED CAN MAN is brilliantly suited at the SWP conditions of the Rock Magic Stakes. He has raced at Group Level at 20 of his last 21 appearances and the last time he raced at SWP was in the Colonel Reeves when finishing second to This’ll Testya. Prior to that the last time he raced at SWP (in WA) was when he finished second to Elite Street in the 2022 Northam Stakes. He is drawn to get the run of the race, he is likely eyeing off one of the final Quokka Slots and this is a wonderful opportunity to showcase his credentials. MASSIMO may not be quite as sharp as him over the 1000 but he’s another who is brilliantly weighted under the conditions. BABY PARIS has only 52kg on her back and has speed to burn, but so does Acromantula/Massimo/Red Can Man/Mood Swings/Excellent Dream. Sticky map. ACROMANTULA would get 9.5kg on Red Can Man/Massimo in Handicap conditions so while he’s not well weighted, he is a track/distance specialist.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – RED CAN MAN WIN

RACE 9

STELLAR VISTA should track up nicely into the race from her ideal barrier. She went right down on her nose last start when the gates opened (takes a few viewings of the replay to see the full effect) and considering all of that she did a super job to pick herself up and still finish off strongly into third. Looks winnable for her. REBELZONE is a different mare with cover. She didn’t get that last start and can be forgiven. FOREVER DREAMING will parkl and ride the speed. Returned to racing in great order. GEORGE GENTLY is a progressive 5 year old with upside.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – STELLAR VISTA WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4

7,9

1,2,4,9

1,3,4,6

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