Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MAGIC TO EXCEED has come back to racing well this preparation and looks to have struck a winnable race. Finished third on Melbourne Cup Day behind Sparkling Blue and Astrape. With the apprentice going on he meets main rival Astrape 1.5kg better at the weights and should be peaking third up. With speed drawn outside of him Keshaw Dhurun has options. ASTRAPE was ridden for speed last start in a bizarre decision to try and lead the fleet footed Crypto Queen. Far better suited with cover and looks destined to get that here. MY BOY EDDY is a talented maiden who shouldn’t take long to break through. MY DILEMMA is suited by the smaller field.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – MAGIC TO EXCEED WIN

RACE 2

MARKET STRYKE found the front and punched into a serious headwind last start at Belmont Park. On face value looked to have every chance but for those who were on course it was immediately evident that he had gone better than it reads and will watch in replay. Dropping back to 1400m, senior back aboard, deserves another go. HART TRADER put the writing on the wall behind Mombasa on Melbourne Cup Day. Looks like the step out in trip will suit her and she looks to get a nice run midfield. COUNT GRUNDY will keep improving as the distances increase. Sound return to racing. DEVIL GIRL finds her weakest race to date.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – MARKET STRYKE WIN

RACE 3

WESTRIVER MIRACLE ran 11th of 11 last start, but that is not an accurate reflection of the effort. Was plunged in betting for those who were on last start they’ll be following up again and for those of us who weren’t part of the move, we can jump on the bandwagon this time round. Drops back to a maiden and you only need to watch the replay of the first-up run or the second-up run to sell yourself that this gelding should prove hard to beat with a senior rider on. ALMAHER MAN stepped straight from 1100m to 1650m last start and sat in the breeze outside a blistering tempo. The overall time was 4.5L faster than maiden average and he did all the work. ROMMEL’S WAR is getting very close to breaking through. DARN NOBLE showed last start that his trials weren’t a fluke.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet – WESTRIVER MIRACLE WIN

RACE 4

BITOFMERIT burst onto the scene on debut when cruising up to Champagne Dame, dropping her off and putting a margin on Buzzoom. Immediately tipped out by Michael Campbell who resists the urge of the Ascot Saturday 3 year old riches to take on the older horses in a C1 1000. Lucy Warwick should be able to again get him across to the breeze and parking just off Crypto Queen looks a very suitable and similar map to his emphatic debut win. Should go close to staying undefeated. CRYPTO QUEEN will pinch another 1000m scamper soon. Whether it’s down the Pinjarra straight or round the bend we’ll find out over the next few weeks. STORY BOOK is well placed against the older horses. William Pike’s engagement catches the eye. STORM COMMANDER is better than what he showed last start.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – BITOFMERIT WIN

RACE 5

PALE RIDER drops out of the Fairetha Stakes and the WA Guineas into a C1 staying event. If he is going to head on towards races like the Lex Piper, JC Roberts, Melvista and WATC Derby as trainer Ted Martinovich has suggested then he needs to be going very close in a race of this nature. Likely to get back but he has shown gears that most of these simply don’t possess. Has to carry the weight in a capacity line-up but has some class about him. CIRCLE THE SUN Was beaten 4L at Geraldton last start. Many stayers simply don’t run for apprentice riders so willing to be forgiving. LADY OF BABYLON and PAIGEY’S TURN are both last start maiden handicap winners. Very questionable form but they’re both lightly raced and look to have staying ability.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 11 – 9

Suggested Bet – PALE RIDER WIN

RACE 6

HE’S A LUCKY LAD dominated C1 opposition fresh after being given 2 months between his maiden win in September and his return in November. Went straight from that win to the Group 2 Sky Racing WA Guineas when finishing midfield 4.5L off Treasured Star. Doubt many of these would get within 4.5L of Treasured Star, so that’s clearly the strongest form reference for this race. From the draw he can settle midfield and wind up from the 600. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND hasn’t won a race for 1379 days but the last start effort shows that it won’t be too much longer for a very patient and deserving Kylie Pisconeri. HOLYOAKE showed improvement last start. CABLE GUY should finally get a half decent run from the barrier.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – HE’S A LUCKY LAD WIN

RACE 7

SEA WAIF might be the forgotten runner in this race. Her overall career form is consistent and she runs to a similar rating each and every outing. From the barrier she can settle right over the speed and if she ends up leader’s back behind Cross Statement you know he’ll take you into the home straight. Senior rider on and still on the minimum. Should get the run she needs to give cheek in an open race. CROSS STATEMENT fought them off well last start. Lightly raced, very consistent and capable of doing it at both ends in his races. JOHNNY ANGEL pulled up with excuses after his below par performance fresh at Narrogin. Placed in a 60+ Graduation previous preparation. WESTERN RHYTHM is a talented mare on her day. Just proving a bit hard to catch recently.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet – SEA WAIF EACHWAY

RACE 8

RED INFERNO has always shown above average ability and is starting to put it all together. Trial was quiet, first-up run was solid, second-up win was dominant and last time out was impressive late when dropping back to 1000m. Looks like 1200m will suit and she has a turn of foot to put herself in the mix. With lots of eyes on War Warrior with 61kg and an outside gate she might hold at a reasonable quote throughout betting. WAR WARRIOR is flying and has the tactical speed to take up a position if necessary. Hard to knock the way he’s going. LOOKS LIKE MAGIC can position up closer from the better draw second-up. Capable on her day. BLOW ME OUT has the best race form in the field. Not an easy steer from barrier 9 for a 4kg claimer. Positives and negatives.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – RED INFERNO EACHWAY

RACE 9

GO FORWARD was enormous last start from an impossible position in running. His previous two runs in WA produced a highly impressive debut third to subsequent 78+ winner Triple Missile and a barnstorming win on Melbourne Cup Day. Comes back to 1000m in a race with a good deal of speed drawn in various parts of the line and should be able to slot in midfield with cover. From there he’s clearly the one to beat. The way the stable is going I’d be shopping early. EEYORE WAYZ hasn’t seen a race like this in a long, long while. Extraordinary placement by Raquel Reid and is a proven fresh, 1000m Belmont commodity. AGENT KENSINGTON can position up close handy and enjoy a nice run. BOYISH a mad one. Didn’t go a yard in Broome. Is very quick on the grass.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 7 – 11

Suggested Bet – GO FORWARD WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,3
1,2,3,4,6,7,11
1,4,7
3,5

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