Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SPEEDY MISS is on the quick back-up again (third race in a fortnight) and while that is always a slight unknown it is hard to knock the way she’s going. Ran second to in form mare I’m Pretty in back to back races before being backed off the map last week ($4.80 into $3.30) and unfortunately nothing really went right when she was squeezed back into the field in the early stages. Hit the line full of running and is capable of settling far closer this week. HIP WIGGLE only comes from a c58+ at Kalgoorlie but held off a relatively talented mare in Miss Zedel. Gets the right run at her return to Belmont. RUN D’AFFAIR RUN will make his own luck out in front and will be there for a long way into the straight. BROTHER PADDY had no luck last start, previous win over Secret Statue reads up well.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – SPEEDY MISS WIN

RACE 2

BEADS won impressively last start when bullying his way into the clear and putting a space on them late. The reason he’ll go round eachway is because of the barrier and while he is naturally going to need some luck in the early stages if the likes of Nights Mystery and Wuhan Warrior turn it on then Shaun McGruddy is a sniff of jamming him in behind them. NO DICE has done enough to suggest that in a high speed, high pressure 1000m that she could run a cheeky race at odds. Ran well on debut behind Flying Missile, Ultimate Command and Astrape and since then has had no luck when tramping wide from horror draws. NIGHTS MYSTERY and WUHAN WARRIOR both look like jump and run 1000 commodities at this stage of their career.

Numbers: 1 – 12 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet – BEADS WIN

RACE 3

REAL GRACE was a plunge horse first-up in a 3 year old 62+ and everything that could go wrong did go wrong. She was drawn awkwardly and ended up in a nightmare position between runners over racing and then never looked comfortable thereafter. Given a freshen, drawn a gate and while William Pike elects to stick with Dunbar you lose nothing with the addition of Chris Parnham. Going off her trials she looked in for a big campaign. Did go round a $5 chance in the Listed Belgravia Stakes last campaign. DEVINE BEAST has excellent Ascot 3 year old Plate form to her name and was stiff not to pinch one last preparation. Should get the right run from the draw. AGENT JAY can stalk the strong tempo on paper and Holly Watson is worth following with her 3kg claim. LONDON MISS went through the grades nicely when last in work.

Numbers: 10 – 8 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – REAL GRACE EACHWAY

RACE 4

BROOKLYN PIER will be looking to burst the bubble of hot in form mare Amasenus as she chases six on the trot in her acid test. Like everyone fully expecting We’ve Got Dreams to find the front but thinking that Steve Parnham can slide across to the breeze and from there hold a tactical advantage on her main dangers. Raced outside the handicap last start and was still the target of huge betting support. Better suited in this 72+. AMASENUS is continually defying betting drifts. Coming from a 66+ run 3.5L slower than average and drawn a sticky alley means she’ll likely get the wobbles late in betting again. Will be plenty betting up on the drift. Going super but this is clearly her toughest test yet. MISS FROST is dynamite fresh and if the splits come late for her, she can fly. JERICHO MISSILE won well last start and is always a big chance in this grade.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – BROOKLYN PIER WIN

RACE 5

TIMELY OUTBURST is bursting her way through the ratings system and gets the wonderfully attractive position of staying in the same grade and going round with the same weight as when winning last start. Holly Watson seems to judge pace as well as any young apprentice and the scary fact about Timely Outburst is she is yet to find the fence in any of her races. Whether she crosses She’s God To You is no guarantee but regardless of leading or breezing she’s the one they need to beat. SHE’S GOD TO YOU has the option of leading or box seating on the back of Timely Outburst. Talented filly who loomed the winner last start and only faded late. JEDI MIND was weaving a passage through in the same race behind subsequent winner The Spruiker. Emerging type. ALPHA AND OMEGA an improver from the draw.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – TIMELY OUTBURST WIN

RACE 6

COMFORT ME is drawn awkwardly but in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of tempo (The Big Show, Living The Dream?) may have to roll forward. Regardless of where he settles he is a lightly raced horse who is charging his way through the grades. Enormous first-up when doing a power of work, too strong for Belmont Guineas winner Sheza Chalmer and then was afforded every chance last start and let down effortlessly to score. With even luck he’s hard to beat. MOSCHARD has not had any luck his entire preparation. From wide gates he has been wide the trip and from his only inside draw he still got shuffled back to an impossible position. NOT TO BE MIST gets important weight relief after seeming to struggle under the weight of recent times. EXCELLENT DREAM is on trial at the trip but gives the indication it won’t be an issue.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – COMFORT ME WIN

RACE 7

SHEZA CHALMER looks extremely hard to beat at set weights having dominated the Belmont Guineas when letting rip late in the race and winning by over a length from Kerman Rock and 2L ahead of fellow filly and rival Tri For Us. Steps out in trip to 2000m but does no work from the draw and provided Pat Carbery can navigate a path through she looks to have a superior turn of foot to her opponents. TRI FOR US is a real trier and likely lands one out, one back naturally from the draw. Stalks a moderate (at best) tempo and gets a soft run. BARONOVA has beaten up on the older horses in C3 staying events. Meets far classier types here but is the proven stayer. CHILI IS HOT will concede them a head start but does look a staying filly in the making.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – SHEZA CHALMER WIN

RACE 8

KERMAN ROCK comes from what on paper looks clearly the strongest form reference, the Belmont Guineas when splitting talented fillies Sheza Chalmer and Tri For Us. Going back to his run in the WATC Derby he loomed into the race when striding past Oaks winning filly Lunar Impact and fought on bravely when collared late by Western Empire and Temptacion. Races on pace and will give a genuine sight. TENA KOUTOU is coming from inferior form as the winner of a Kalgoorlie maiden and a lowly midweek provincial C1 but does look to have raw, untapped ability. CRESCENT CITY took the massive step from maiden company into a 60+ Graduation and beat the older horses comfortably. By Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente and should only be getting better with racing. FREE SOLO will be backing up off 3 days from Wednesday. Keep safe.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet – KERMAN ROCK WIN

RACE 9

PLAYING MARIKA has returned to racing well this preparation and seems to peak off the back-up. Winner on a 5 day back-up from trials to race-day, winner off 10 days Wednesday to following Saturday and most recent victory was off the 7 day back-up. Nothing wrong with the effort last week when finishing third behind The Spruiker and Bright Diamond. Runs for Lucy Warwick and always goes round at double figures. I’M PRETTY is flying and while she comes from moderate Westspeed Platinum events she has been carrying weight and belting them. KALLAROO gets the right run and drops in grade from a 72+ but into a 65+. ZACKARIAH BEAU never saw daylight last week when settling last and following the fence home in a stack of traffic. Backing up, Paul Harvey on, no surprise to see him flood home.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – PLAYING MARIKA EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,5,7,8
1,2,4
1,3,7
1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,13,15

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