Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

THE KING’S AFFAIR went around in a C1 1000 last start and lumped 60kg. She did a lot wrong wanting to lay inwards up the home straight but she was still really good. Back to maiden grade she drops 4kg and the 1000m is her go. BOLTA has finished third to Lost City & Last Stylebender, third to King’s Honour and Ginnivan and then third to Ginnivan and Final Siren. That kind of form would see him jump odds on in a 1000m maiden on the grass – but this is dirt. Needs to lead from barrier 1. RUN RUPI RUN and MAPLETTE bring further intrigue to the race.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet – THE KING’S AFFAIR WIN

RACE 2

MIR was backed as if unbeatable last start. The $1.90 early betting looked quite attractive but by the time they jumped he was in as short as $1.26. Luckily enough for those who launched at the David Shorttes he romped in by 5L untouched in a galloping exhibition. Big opportunity for Ava Catarino if she can get him to jump cleanly and stay out of trouble early. MANTELLI has the senior rider on and while the dirt hasn’t been that kind to him so far he’s shown enough. PRIMATIVE found her feet last start and lead them a merry dance. TINY’N’TUFF sneaks up in behind the speed.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – MIR WIN

RACE 3

WESTERN IMPACT is getting closer and closer to a win. Has run minors to the stablemate in C3 company at his last two and now drops back into a C1. Getting better and better into the campaign and looks hard to hold out here. MONTY ZOOMER had his first start in Carnarvon and was really popular late in betting – and the punters got it spot on. He travelled strongly in front and never looked like being run down, winning his maiden by almost 7L. STRUCK BY LUCK and QUINDANDINO both have strong enough grass form to be competitive. They just need to handle the dirt at their first outings at Carnarvon.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – WESTERN IMPACT WIN

RACE 4

CASTILLO DEL LAGO looks the big improver on paper. Second start on dirt and more importantly out to a far more suitable trip going from 1000m to 1400m. Didn’t think he was that bad behind Mir over the short course and if Kate Pateman could bully her way to the top here it would make things interesting. PASSPORT dropped back into a 56+ last start and got the job done in style. No reason why he can’t win again. SHAMARA has been there abouts most of the campaign. THE CHIEF JUSTICE a watch at his first start for Brock Lewthwaite.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – CASTILLO DEL LAGO WIN

RACE 5

CRYSTAL VAIN vs WUHAN WARRIOR looks the story of the 2024 Minilya Sprint. The former stablemates clashed over 1200m on 1 June and Wuhan Warrior came out victorious and meets Crystal Vain 2.5kg better at the weights for having beaten him home that day. Fascinating early speed battle with both fancies drawn out deep. WUHAN WARRIOR to cause the minor boilover again at his Zach Tyler debut. CRYSTAL VAIN is 1600 back to 1200 and lumped with 64kg but he’s absolutely loving dirt life. UNI QUEEN a watch at her dirt debut. REGAL CITY next best.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – WUHAN WARRIOR WIN

RACE 6 

HAFEY, LOOKING GREAT and SET THE SCENE all come through the Crystal Vain and we’ll put all the eggs in the one basket and suggest that it’s the obvious and strongest form reference. HAFEY has blinkers added and hopefully can settle a bit closer than recent runs. He’s back into a 56+ which is the grade he won in back on June 1st when beating Set The Scene by 2L. Think ridden aggressively early to stay off the fence he can wind up over them.  SET THE SCENE has a senior on and is a model of consistency. LOOKING GREAT is drawn barrier 1 which can get ugly if crossed early. WHO’S YOUR MAMA best of the rest.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – HAFEY WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,2,3,6,7

1,2,5,8,9,10,11

1,7

1,2,4

Market Market



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