Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BONDI BAY was stiff not to win first-up when held up at a crucial stage in the race won by Timeless Gem (who he meets 1kg better) and then circled the field from last over 1400m with 60kg when beating out-bobbed by Cheyne Bay (who he meets 2kg better) last start. Positive weight swings, Pike goes on and drawn a favourable alley. Plenty of ticks. ANOTHER LOVE won well on debut when leading and skipping clear late. The second filly Gi Gi Pops looks an exciting type as well and races on Thursday at Bunbury. TIMELESS GEM ran into Glasgow Lass last start. CHEYNE BAY won well on debut.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – BONDI BAY WIN

RACE 2

GINNIVAN is a jump and run 1000m horse. He has won two of his last four when finding the fence and this looks another suitable assignment for him. Likely to cop a bit of pressure from Some Sort / Ain’t No Other Man but he seems to go better the quicker the race is run. Hard to beat again. SONGAA beat him home when they last met and they’re here again at level weights (both rise 1.5kg). He’s a proven wet tracker and can be ridden cold from his outside gate. SOFIA’S SYMPHONY picked up Black Type in the Beaufine. 5 weeks between runs and concussion plates are a concern. ANGEL UNDERCOVER next best.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – GINNIVAN WIN

RACE 3

CAPTAIN PLUTO returned with a career best performance first-up over 1400m. The obvious question will be whether or not he can reproduce that sprinting effort or whether he’ll quickly be looking for further, however, from the draw he can be ridden in a similar manner and it’s hard to not follow up given the 3.4L winning margin. TOO DARDY couldn’t go with him at the 200m but stuck on well into second. Gets some important weight relief here as he looks to turn the tables. CORN COB will find this easier than the Jockey Celebration Stakes. SAVAGE ONE rolls to the top, controls and kicks into the corner.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – CAPTAIN PLUTO WIN

RACE 4

SILVER EYE has brilliant race form for a Westspeed Platinum. Has to overcome the drop back to 1000m in the middle of a preparation, however, he was backed from $7 into $2.70 last start in a 66+ and prior to that had run into Deferred (three from three this preparation) and Joker’s Grin (three from four in his career). It’s the best form in the race and he’s a proven weight carrier. ELITEONE heads into his lowest graded race of his career. Recent trial winner without blinkers and maps to get a soft run. Keep safe. INDIE RULER won back to back Westspeed Platinum sprints to start last campaign and trialled well without blinkers too. CESSATION is going well but maps poorly.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – SILVER EYE WIN

RACE 5

FILTHY HABITS rolls to the top in a race without any other speed or pressure. Lucy Fiore should be able to get the first 1000m all to her own liking and then from that point onwards she can look to turn this into a staying test with a one paced, grinding type of horse. He’s fit, he’s tough and this is not a stellar line-up by any stretch. EMERALD TRADER is not an easy horse to follow (or ride, or back) but he’s got undeniable ability. Deserves to win one. XTRAREVZ has blinkers added and has the X-Factor element of John Allen taking the ride. QUEEN OF JERUSALEM backs up and gets a very soft run throughout

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – FILTHY HABITS EACHWAY

RACE 6

MISS SKYHIGH and KEEP ATTACKING are likely to attract the majority of interest in this 60+ 1200. MISS SKYHIGH could not have been more impressive at trials winning effortlessly without her race day blinkers, while KEEP ATTACKING has returned in excellent order with a first-up win over subsequent winners Under Influence and Desert Nymph before finishing second to inform stablemate Sentimental Belle. Pike vs Allen. How good. THE GREAT HOYA didn’t fire a shot last start in an uncharacteristic poor performance. Prior to that he was running solid races and considering he’s the only speed horse in this line-up expect that he’ll safely get across without burning much fuel early. DESERT NYMPH is flying.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MISS SKYHIGH WIN

RACE 7 

SENTIMENTAL BELLE is working her way through the grades at the rate of knots this campaign. She has won four of her last five outings including winning a 66+ last start where they stopped the clock 5L faster than average. Silver Eye will be very popular in Race 4 and Sentimental Belle will be very popular in Race 7. She’s getting better and better. BRAVE STRIKE backs up off 7 days and drops out of a 72+ behind Ice Pick Nick and Leniency. She’s racing consistently well. FLURO NEURO is better suited back in distance and dangerous with a late split. AUTUMN REBEL may find them a bit sharp at 1300?

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL BELLE WIN

RACE 8

TRIPLE JAY is looking to win his fourth consecutive race but to do so will need to win over 1650m. He’s won his last two at 1400 and now steps into unchartered waters at a mile (plus the extra 50m because the rail is out 10m the entire). What is in his favour though is the fact that there is next to no other speed in this race. Expect Brad Parnham will land in front and from there he can turn it into a sit and sprint to suit himself. ADMIRATION EXPRESS gets 2.5kg on Desennea for a short head defeat and bounced back to somewhere near her best last start. CRESCENT CITY and UPPER LIMITS found the line well in the Jockey Celebration Stakes.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – TRIPLE JAY WIN

Same Race Multi – Triple Jay (Win) + Admiration Express (Top 4)

Triple Jay won the Jockey Celebration Stakes last start by over 1L and meets a fairly similar line-up in the Blue Spec Stakes. He’ll have to run out another 250m stepping to 1650m for the first time but he maps to land in front and get things his own way. Admiration Express is a new addition bringing alternate form lines and she was back to somewhere near her best last start.

RACE 9

ARCADIA KNIGHT has returned to racing well. First-up over 1400m he found the line strongly and second-up he sustained a run from a long way back in an extremely fast run race (leader Looks a subsequent plunge winner at Pinjarra Wednesday). This looks an open and even contest and he gets in with 55kg and has blinkers re-attached. Worth consideration at double figures. WANGO AWARD backs up off 7 days, drops in grade, draws well and is a proven weight carrier. She’s very well placed. SNAZZLER was a different horse with the senior rider on. ICEBERGS was luckless first-up and is a versatile mare who can go forward if jumping well.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – ARCADIA KNIGHT EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,4,6,7

2

4,5

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10

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