Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Finals Preview: Preliminary Finals

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

FRIDAY

Sydney v Fremantle, SCG, 5.40pm

Despite finishing a clear cut second on the ladder at the end of the home and away season Sydney went in to their Qualifying Final against Brisbane as big outsiders due largely to the club imposed suspensions on Heeney, Blakey, Warner, Jordon and Bice. The odds proved to be a gross misrepresentation of how the match would unfold however with Sydney proving dominant in their 53 point victory.

Fremantle lost the first of their Finals, going down to the Hawks by 32 points but they bounced back in impressive style last week defeating Geelong by 14 points at Optus Stadium.

Let’s first take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and their last match.

Sydney

Finishing Position : 2nd

Season Record : 19 Wins 5 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Matches : 4 Wins

Last Match : Sydney 21.15 (141) defeated Brisbane 13.10 (88) by 53 points at the SCG

Fremantle

Finishing Position : 1st

Season Record : 20 Wins 5 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 6 Wins 4 Losses

Last 4 Rounds : 2 Wins 2 Losses

Last Match : Fremantle 18.12 (120) defeated Geelong 16.10 (106) by 14 points at Optus Stadium

Sydney’s 53 point smashing of Brisbane was highlighted by the red hot form of Errol Gulden who had 34 disposals and by the impact of their Forwards with Logan McDonald bagging a haul of 6 goals, Tom Papley and Charlie Curnow 5 apiece, and Hayden McLean 3 goals.

Fremantle’s fortunes turned around against the Cats and the performances of Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton, Hayden Young, Andrew Brayshaw and Jordan Clark were all significant. Patrick Voss was superb up front with 4 goals while Dudley, Frederick, Jackson, Amiss and Bolton all contributed with 2 goals each.

These two sides have crossed paths just once this season – they met in Round 18 at Optus Stadium where Fremantle 15.21 (111) beat Sydney 10.13 (73) by 38 points.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Sydney : Gulden 30, Mills 26, Heeney 25, Blakey 25, Chad Warner 23, McCartin 23, Lloyd, 20, Rowbottom 18

Fremantle : Serong 28, Reid 28, Brayshaw 25, Johnson 24, Clark 23, Bolton 23, Worner 20, Erasmus 19

Sydney : Curnow 5, Papley 2, Lloyd 2

Fremantle : Treacy 4, Voss 2, Frederick 2, Bolton 2, Amiss 2

OH ERROL : Errol Gulden : The Swans Ball Magnet has been getting a stack of the footy with disposal counts between 34 and 47 in his last 6 matches at an average of more than 39. Is paying $2.70 to get 35 or more disposals, $6.10 to get 40 or more and $2.45 to kick a goal or more.

TIME TO BOLT : Shai Bolton : Was clutch in the Semi Final against the Cats last week with 26 disposals and 2 goals. Has managed 20 plus disposals in 16 of his 24 games this season at an average of 22.8 including 9 games where he has had 25 plus. Has been chipping in up forward as well kicking one or more goals in 8 of his last 9 matches. If he can repeat last week’s effort and get 25 or more disposals and kick 2 or more goals in a Same Game Multi he is paying $10.50.

It was really important for Fremantle to come up with a positive response last week against Geelong and to their credit they found a way to get it done.

Now it is time to take that form on the road and get it done against a severely undermanned Sydney outfit. Quite simply there will be no excuses if the Dockers don’t win this match and qualify through to the Grand Final. They had the best regular season record and the circumstances of the Pullman episode have left the Swans vulnerable.

Sydney are a proud football club and they will most definitely bring plenty of pressure and heat but I keep coming back to the fact that they have some very important pieces of their puzzle not on the table. The Dockers won’t get many better opportunities to qualify for a Grand Final than what they get here.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 15 points

Same Game Multi:  Shai Bolton and Andrew Brayshaw to both get 20 or more disposals, Errol Gulden to get 30 or more disposals and Charlie Curnow to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.70*

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Brisbane, MCG, 3.15pm

Hawthorn arrived at Optus Stadium as an outsider for their Qualifying final against the Dockers but departed as a legitimate premiership threat. They dialled up the pressure meter to the extreme setting and suffocated the top of the table Fremantle, eventually going on to win by 32 points.

Meanwhile Brisbane coughed up their first final to Sydney by 53 points before pulling the complete reversal and defeating Adelaide at the GABBA by 53 points.

Let’s take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and last week.

Brisbane

Finishing Position : 3rd

Season Record : 17 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 8 Wins 2 Losses

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Loss

Last Match : Brisbane 21.18 (144) defeated Adelaide 13.13 91 by 53 points at the GABBA

Hawthorn

Finishing Position : 4th

Season Record : 16 Wins 6 Losses 2 Draws

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Rounds : 2 Wins 1 Loss 1 Draw

Last Match : Hawthorn 10.12 (72) defeated Fremantle 5.10 (40) by 32 points at Optus Stadium

These two sides have met just once this season with Brisbane 18.17 (125) defeating Hawthorn 8.10 (58) by 67 points in round 22 at the GABBA.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Brisbane : W Ashcroft 39, Neale 35, L Ashcroft 27, Zorko 25, Lohmann 24, Dunkley 24, Berry 22, Bailey 21

Hawthorn : Ward 28, Newcombe 25, Moore 22, D’Ambrosio 22, Mackenzie 20, Ginnivan 20, Battle 20, Hardwick 19

Brisbane : Lohmann 5, Morris 4, Cameron 3, Hipwood 2

Hawthorn : Gunston 3

HANDLEBARS DOWN :Charlie Cameron : Was magnificent in the Lions win over Adelaide slotting 5 majors and has kicked 2 or more goals in 21 of his 25 games this season. Paying $11 to kick the first goal of the match, $3.25 for 3 or more and $7 to kick 4 or more.

WAVE THE WAND : Nick Watson : One of the most exciting players in the game right now looms large in this contest. 57 Goals in 22 matches at an average of more than 2 and a half goals per match gives you a very good indication of what sort of season he has had. The Hawks will need him at his magical best to get it done here.

I think that anybody that knows footy understands that if Brisbane turn up and play to their best level any opponent has their work cut out to beat them. They are aiming up at qualifying for their fourth straight Grand Final and the biggest question revolves around how hungry are they? If that hunger remains and they turn up fully switched on they will be a handful.

The Hawks are certainly emerging as a team that look on the brink of some very exciting times. They are really well coached, have a great balance of youth and experience and importantly they showed in their win against Fremantle that they are capable of taking their pressure game to another level for finals football.

This match would actually have done justice to being a Grand Final in it’s own right. It looms as one of the biggest matches of the decade and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds. I’ll side with recent history and go with Brisbane to prevail in a classic.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 4 points

Same Game Multi : Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko to both get 20 or more disposals, Will Ashcroft to get 25 or more disposals, and Logan Morris and Nick Watson to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.45*

VALUE MULTI

I’ll also be taking a value Multi across the two games with Will Ashcroft to get 25 or more disposals, Errol Gulden to get 30 or more disposals, Josh Treacy, Logan Morris and Charlie Cameron to kick 2 or more goals and Charlie Curnow to kick 3 or more goals @ $18.36*

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