Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

NURHACI trialled well at Lark Hill in solid time before drawing awkwardly first-up. Was ridden a treat by the in-form Jade McNaught from the sticky gate but through no fault of her own was held up at crucial stages on straightening when bolting. Hit the line well all things considered and in a genuinely run 1000m race he looks well suited. Likely to land 1×1 and should take beating. CAN’T HELP MYSELF is going well and could well fire through to lead. Gets his chance back to 1000m after racing over the top of a solid tempo last start at 1100m. LA CHAIVE is kept fresh and a more senior apprentice engaged. DEVIL’S DUST trialled very well beating home impressive first-up winner Fiery Waters. Like to see him do it on race day.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – NURHACI WIN

RACE 2

I AM GROOT likely rolls to the top for Jarrad Noske. Chased hard first-up from back in the field and then went close last start when only gunned down late by Weona Brute. That should prove strong enough form in this weak maiden and worth noting he was scratched from a very winnable maiden at Northam on Thursday to save for this. TICK ALONG has a senior rider on for the first time this preparation and has been going well enough at the provincials. PUMPHREY’S BRIDGE did everything wrong on debut at Northam and still ran quite well. RETURN TO OZ was backed off the map last start but looked extremely one paced. Back onto a Good4 could help.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – I AM GROOT WIN

RACE 3

CHIX CHATTER looks to hold a class edge. First-up ran second to the impressive Queen Brown when successfully protesting against subsequent winner Champagne Diva. Last start drew a horror gate and was forced to go back. Chased really hard and now falls into a 7 horse field and in a highly compressed weights scale gets in with a very soft 56kg. On paper this is his race to lose. CHILI IS HOT was a highly impressive debut winner and looks dangerous from three back the fence. SURVEILLANCE has returned quite dour this preparation. Expected a lot more from him last start when flopping. KERMAN ROCK was strong at Northam when winning. Likely settles last which makes it tough.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – CHIX CHATTER WIN

RACE 4

GUNNAGO backs up off 7 days and went very close when only nabbed late by highly progressive mare Montelena. Has always been a Mitch Pateman horse and he jumps back board for the first time since his barnstorming Northam win under 60kg. This race is completely devoid of speed which is a concern for him but trusting Pateman to get him rolling when he needs to. DOUBLE DIGIT is another brilliantly placed class dropper. Has shown some staying ability and his last two are both clearly good enough to win this. Been a long time since he’s seen a 66+. MOSSERATTI could roll forward to breeze or even lead if Saxon Saxoff doesn’t step. Going well and gets considerable weight off Double Digit for last start. SUGAR CAIN is ready and was luckless last time out.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – GUNNAGO WIN

RACE 5

THIS’LL TESTYA will be all the rage but for punters considering launching at the David Shortes always proceed with caution with her. Has the world of ability but the attitude to go with it. If she doesn’t jump cleanly there is tonne of speed in the race which could make things interesting. On ratings she’s 5L better than these but she does a lot wrong. Excitement machine, hope she jumps, leads and gives Pateman a chance to smile for the camera. AY TEE EMM was scratched from a winnable race on Thursday to save for this. Aggressive move to take on a genuine $1.40 pop but should track up along the fence. EXCELLENT DREAM is new and green and raw but he has talent. COPPER FURY doesn’t have the ability of these but it could turn into a leader, leader’s back, three back the fence sort of race if This’ll Testya jumps.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – THIS’LL TESTYA WIN

RACE 6

FREE TRADE was well and truly below par first-up. Was a funnily run race with Saracino stringing them out and making them chase from the 600 but there was no excuses. He was under pressure before the turn and didn’t show any turn of acceleration. Gets significant weight on most of his rivals from the Belmont Newmarket, where he went around with an SP of $1.65. Gets to box seat a strong tempo here and we’ll be forgiving because he is better than that. GREAT SHOT hasn’t won for over 1000 days but he is the WFA horse in the race. His fresh form is super and he always turns up race day. DANCE MUSIC had a brilliant preparation over the summer and should land a prominent position. LOCKROY doesn’t know how to run a bad race.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet – FREE TRADE WIN

RACE 7

RATION ALY was backed as if unbeatable first-up and duly saluted. Super return after more than 400 days away from the track and if she can reproduce that effort she’ll take serious holding out here. Lightly raced, big turn of acceleration and looks capable of going through the grades. SUPER TEROITOA is deep into the preparation but continues to race well. Hard not to notice his last start effort when deep the trip chasing an extremely hot tempo. Going super and gets things his own way out in front. BIG SHOT PADDY is a highly talented animal. John Reynolds does a wonderful job with his small team and can’t be underestimated. ANNIHILATOR maps to get a far more favourable run than he endured last start.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – RATION ALY WIN

RACE 8

SILKINIZE drops back to 1000m and should be tracking up along the fence while the parks fly up front. In a race where we expect We’ve Got Dreams, Mia Dolce and Cliffs of Comfort to go to war on top of the speed the beneficiary late could be Silkinize. Loomed like he was about to chime in last start but faded out of it. Looks suited to a high speed 1000 and for a horse who can lay in, the rail and a left whip rider could be key. CLIFFS OF COMFORT is a winner and getting better with racing. If this was 1200 he’d be odds on but in a tricky little speed map at 1000 could be vulnerable. NERODIO like Silkinize is a talented swooper who will be coming hard late. WE’VE GOT DREAMS is as quick as they come and loves the short course.

Number: 9 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – SILKINIZE EACHWAY

Quad (Race 5 – 8)

5

1,7,9

2,4,5,8

1,3,4,9

Market Market



Recent Articles